Diabetes melitus tipe 2 telah menjadi masalah kesehatan masyarakat yang serius dan merupakan penyebab penting dari angka kesakitan, kematian, kecacatan dan kerugian ekonomi di seluruh dunia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengestimasi prevalensi, faktor-faktor risiko dan model prediksi kejadian diabetes melitus tipe 2 di daerah urban Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan data Survei Riset Kesehatan Dasar 2007. Kriteria diagnostik menggunakan metode Tes Toleransi Glukosa Oral (TTGO) menurut World Health Organization (WHO) 1999 dan American Diabetes Association (ADA) 2003. Dari 19.960 responden berusia 15 tahun keatas hanya 18.746 responden yang dianalisis. Analisis data menggunakan regresi logistik dengan desain sampel dua tahap. Dari analisis data didapatkan prevalensi diabetes melitus sebesar 5,98% (95%CI 5,40% - 6,62%), prevalensi diabetes melitus tertinggi pada kelompok umur diatas 45 tahun sebesar 12,41% (95%CI 11,13% - 13,81%). Dengan mengontrol tingkat pendidikan, pekrjaan dan umur didapatkan odds ratio kegemukan sebesar 1,52 (OR = 1,52; 95%CI 1,27 - 1,82), odds ratio obesitas sebesar 2,40 (OR = 2,40; 95%CI 1,80 - 3,19) dan odds ratio obesitas sentral sebesar 1,92 (OR = 1,92; 95%CI 1,62 - 2,26). Dengan menghindari kejadian obesitas sentral dapat mencegah 22,6% (95% CI 18,2% - 26,5%) kejadian diabetes melitus tipe 2 di populasi, atau sekitar 474.922 kasus diabetes melitus dapat dicegah jika obesitas sentral diintervensi.

---

Diabetes mellitus type 2 is a serious public health problem in the world. Diabetes mellitus is also the main cause of morbidity, mortality, disability, and economic loss all over the world include development countries. The research objective is to estimate the diabetes mellitus prevalence, risk factors, and prediction model in urban areas of Indonesia. By analyzed The Indonesia Basic Health Research Survey 2007 that consist of 19,960 respondents aged above 15 years old who had Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT). Only 18,746 respondents had been analyzed. Logistic regression with two stage design sampling was used to analyze the data.

The result showed that diabetes mellitus prevalence was 5.98% (95%CI 5.40% - 6.62%), and the highest prevalence was 12.41% (95%CI 11.13% - 13.81%) in an above 45 year-old age group. We estimate odds ratio by adjusted education level, occupation and age. The odds ratio of overweight is 1.52 (OR = 1.52; 95%CI 1.27 - 1.82), the odds ratio of general obesity is 2.40 (OR = 2.40; 95%CI 1.80 - 3.19) and the odds ratio of central obesity is 1.92 (OR = 1.92; 95%CI 1.62 - 2.26). By prevent central obesity we could prevent 22.6% (95% CI 18.2% - 26.5%) the expected diabetes mellitus cases in the population, or above 474,922 diabetes mellitus cases could prevent.