Tesis ini bertujuan mengevaluasi perkembangan ekspor (impor) enam komoditi terpilih antara Indonesia dan China selama tahun 1990-2010. Tesis ini juga membahas faktor-faktor determinan yang mempengaruhi perdagangan atau pertumbuhan bilateral ekspor (impor) antara Indonesia dan China. Metodologi tesis ini menggunakan baik analisis deskriptif maupun analisis ekonometri. Analisis deskriptif berupa indikator pertumbuhan, neraca perdagangan, dan kontribusi perkembangan ekspor (impor). Sedangkan pendekatan model gravity digunakan dalam analisis ekonometri. Keseluruhan bagian analisis mencoba fokus kepada periode-periode penting hubungan ekonomi dan politik Indonesia-China, seperti: awal normalisasi Indonesia-China 1995, krisis finansial Asia 1997, China masuk WTO 2001, implementasi ACFTA 2010, dan krisis ekonomi global 2008.
Hasil studi mengindikasikan bahwa komoditi ekspor terpilih Indonesia berpotensi sangat besar untuk dikembangkan dalam perdagangan bilateral dengan China terlebih untuk memaksimalkan manfaat dari adanya ACFTA; pertumbuhan ekspor-impor komoditi terpilih Indonesia-China tidak berbeda signifikan dengan kondisi yang sama pada Negara-negara Anggota ASEAN lainnya; ACFTA dan krisis ekonomi global 2008 tidak serta merta memberikan dampak negatif terhadap produksi atau output dan tenaga kerja dalam negeri atas enam komoditi ekspor (impor) terpilih Indonesia dengan China; tariff ternyata memberikan dampak signifikan terhadap ekspor komoditi terpilih Indonesia ke China sehingga harus lebih diperhatikan antara lain dengan mengintensifkan negosiasi oleh Indonesia kepada China; krisis ekonomi global 2008 ternyata meningkatkan nilai ekspor nasional, namun krisis ini juga signifikan meningkatkan nilai impor Indonesia dari China; ekspor Indonesia ke China berpotensi sangat besar memenuhi kebutuhan domestik China saat pertumbuhan GDP per kapita China meningkat.
This thesis is aimed to evaluate the development of export (import) of six selected commodities between Indonesia and China during 1990-2010. It also discusses determinant factors that influence the trade or growth of bilateral export (import) between Indonesia and China. Methodology of this thesis is using both descriptive and econometric analysis. Descriptive analysis in form of indicators of growth, trade balance, and contribution of the export (import) development, as well as the gravity model approach are used in this study. Overall part of the analysis seeks to focus on important periods of economic and political relations between Indonesia and China, such as: early normalization of relations between Indonesia and China in 1995, Asian financial crisis in 1997, China entered the WTO in 2001, implementation of the ACFTA in 2010, and global economic crisis in 2008.
The study results indicate that the selected export commodities of Indonesia have enormous potential for development in bilateral trade with China especially to maximize benefits of the ACFTA; growth of export (import) of selected commodities of Indonesia and China did not differ significantly with the same conditions in other ASEAN countries; the ACFTA and the global economic crisis 2008 did not necessarily have a negative effect in domestic production or output and labor of six selected commodities export (import) of Indonesia to China; tariff in fact has a significant impact onthe export of the Indonesian selected commodities to China, so the attention should be given among others by intensifying negotiations by Indonesia to China; global economic crisis 2008 in fact increased national export, however, this crisis also significantly increased the value of import of Indonesia from China; Indonesia`s export to China potentially have enormous potential to meet domestic needs of China at the time GDP per capita growth of China increases.
