Since Indonesia does not have a good vita! statistics registration
system, fertility rates for the country as a whole and any administrative
subdivisions must be estimated indirectly. This paper summarizes estimates
resulting from the application of four brdu-ect estimation techniques to seven
Indonesian data sets. The own-children method, the last live birth method, the
Palmore method and the Rele method were applied to all seven data sets:
Estimates were prepared for the whole country and its three major regions for
1971 through 1991. Estimates for individual provinces were also calculated for
some dates. In addition, estimates from other methods, available for some
dates and subnational areas, are presented The data sets used are the 1971
Census, the 1976 Intercensal Survey, the 1980 Census, the 1985 Intercensal
way; the 1987 National Indonesia Contraceptive Prevalence Survey; the I 990
Census, and the 1991 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey. The results
show that fertility in Indonesia fell by at least thirty-nine percent between 1971
and 1991, but the various methods do not agree on the levels of fertility,
particularly the earliest dates .By 1991, however; three estimates of the total
fertility rate for Indonesia as a whole are in as a whole are in a small range:
from a low estimate of 3.22 to a high of 3.35. Fertility declined rapidly in all
of the major regions of the country, although fertility started at higher levels
outside of Java and Bali and hence remains at higher levels today despite
rapid declines.
