Studies on population dynamic have revealed that as the
trends and patterns cf demographic variables have changed the
distribution shapes may also change. In fertility. for example, the
decline in total fertility rates (TFR) may be followed by the shifting
in the age of childbearing which in turn distorting the shape of
fertility rates. Despite these facts, however, most forecasting
done in developing countries has traditionally assumed the constant
patterns of demographic variables, whereas the levels have changed
(e.g. TFR and IMR). This study attempts to _fill this gap by
contributing an alternative scenario in forecasting demographic
variables. Using multiple data sources (census and surveys),
assumptions for forecasting was constructed by incorporating
variation in the age profile as well as in the level of demographic
components. Demographic models, which include the models of
demographic schedules and Heighman-Pollard were applied. This
study demonstrated how it is possible, using limited data that
available in Indonesia and in many developing countries, to
construct alternative 'dynamic? scenarios. It has been done so by
applying some advanced demographic methods to indonesia data,
and draw evidence from other, similar countries. An alternative
'dynamic ' scenario was implemented by using the changes of levels
and patterns of demographic parameters over the forecasting
period.
