Latar Belakang. Lama rawat intensif pasien pascabedah jantung yang memanjang mempengaruhi alur pasien bedah jantung berikutnya. Pengaturan pasien berdasarkan lama rawat diperlukan agar alur pasien lancar. Tujuan. Membuat prediksi lama rawat intensif 48 jam berdasarkan nilai skor dari model EuroSCORE dan model yang dimodifikasi dari faktor-faktor EuroSCORE. Metode. Penelitian restrospektif dilakukan pada Januari 2012 - Desember 2013 pada 249 pasien yang menjalani bedah jantung di Unit Pelayanan Jantung RSUPN Dr Cipto Mangunkusumo Jakarta. Analisis survival dan regresi Cox dilakukan untuk membuat prediksi lama rawat intensif 48 jam. Hasil. Median kesintasan lama rawat intensif 43 jam. Nilai skor EuroSCORE tidak memenuhi asumsi hazard proporsional. Model baru telah dibuat dari 7 variabel EuroSCORE yang secara substansi berhubungan dengan lama rawat intensif (AUC 0,67). Kesimpulan. Model baru dari tujuh faktor EuroSCORE cukup dapat memprediksi lama rawat intensif 48 jam.

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Background. Prolonged intensive care unit length of stay (ICU-LOS) in a postcardiac surgery may shortage of ICU beds due to clog of patient flow. Improving ICU-LOS may lead to better patient flow.

Objectives. To predict 48-hour ICU-LOS based on EuroSCORE model and to create a modified EuroSCORE factors model.

Methods. A retrospective study was conducted from January 2012 to December 2013 among 249 patients who underwent cardiac surgery at Integrated Cardiac Services, Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta. Survival analysis and Cox?s regression were performed to make a prediction model for 48-hour ICU-LOS.

Results. Median survival of ICU-LOS was 43-hour. The EuroSCORE model did not meet the proporsional hazard assumption. A new substantial model from 7- EuroSCORE factors was created to predict 48 hours ICU-LOS (AUC 0.67).

Conclusions. Seven EuroSCORE factors was sufficient as a new model to predict the 48-hour ICU-LOS.