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Analisis spillover volatilitas antara pasar ekuitas negara ASEAN-5 dengan pasar negara Amerika Serikat dan Jepang dengan pendekatan multivariat garch = Volatility spillover analysis between ASEAN-5 countries equity markets with USA and Japanese markets multivariate garch approach

Intan Purbasari; Zaafri Ananto Husodo, supervisor; Rofikoh Rokhim, promotor (Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Indonesia, 2014)

 Abstrak

[ABSTRAK
Penelitian ini membahas mengenai spillover volatilitas antara pasar ekuitas
negara anggota ASEAN-5 dengan pasar ekuitas Amerika Serikat dan Jepang, pada
periode 1 Januari 2004 sampai dengan 31 Desember 2014. Seluruhperiode
penelitian dibagai kedalam tiga periode, yaitu : pra krisis, krisis dan pasca krisis.
Model yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah bivariate GARCH (1,1) ? full
BEKK. Hasil empiris pada penelitian ini, yaitu Pertama, Spillover volatilitas
memiliki sifat dan besaran yang berbeda beda tergantung pada periode pra krisis,
krisis dan pasca krisis.
Kedua, ditemukan bukti bahwa pada periode pra krisis tidak ditemukan
adanya spillover volatilitas diantara pasar saham ASEAN-5, namun hasil yang
berbeda ditunjukan pada periode krisis dan pasca krisis, pada periode tersebut
spillover volatilitas terjadi diantara pasar ASEAN-5, namun pada saat krisis
magnitude nya lebih besar dibandingkan pasca krisis. Spillover volatilitas yang
terjadi diantara negara ASEAN-5 bersifat satu arah (unidirectional). Ketiga,
Ditemukan adanya bukti spillover volatilitas dari pasar Amerika dan Jepang
menuju pasar ASEAN-5.
Pada saat periode pra krisis, pasar Jepang memberikan pengaruh spillover
volatilitas lebih besar dibandingkan pasar Amerika. Sedangkan pada saat krisis
dan pasca krisis, pasar Amerika memberikan pengaruh yang lebih besar
dibandingkan dengan pasar Jepang. Keempat, Hubungan antara pasar Amerika
Serikat dan Jepang dengan pasar ASEAN-5 menjadi lebih kompleks pada saat
setelah krisis.

ABSTRACT
This study examines volatility spillover between ASEAN-5 countries?
equity market with USA and Japanese markets in the period January 1, 2004
through December 31, 2004. The whole time-period is divided into three periods
as related to the world financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009, namely : precrisis,
crisis and post-crisis. Bivariate GARCH (1,1) ? FULL BEKK model is
employed to simultaneously estimate the conditional variance between seven
different indexes. The following are the results of empirical research : The first,
volatility spillover has a different nature and magnitude depending on the period
of the pre crisis, crisis and post-crisis.
Second, there is evidence that in the pre-crisis period, there are no volatility
spillover among the ASEAN-5 stock markets, but the different results shown in
the crisis and post-crisis period, during this period of volatility spillover occurs
between the ASEAN-5 markets, but in times of crisis magnitude is larger than the
post-crisis. Internal volatility spillover occurs among ASEAN-5 is one-way
(unidirectional).Third, there is evidence of volatility spillover from the U.S. and
Japan to the ASEAN-5 markets.
At the time of pre-crisis period, the Japanese market volatility spillover
effect is greater than the American market. While in times of crisis and post-crisis,
the U.S. market gives greater influence than the Japanese market.Fourth, the
external and internal relationship in the ASEAN-5 markets become more complex
during the post-crisis.;This study examines volatility spillover between ASEAN-5 countries’
equity market with USA and Japanese markets in the period January 1, 2004
through December 31, 2004. The whole time-period is divided into three periods
as related to the world financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009, namely : precrisis,
crisis and post-crisis. Bivariate GARCH (1,1) – FULL BEKK model is
employed to simultaneously estimate the conditional variance between seven
different indexes. The following are the results of empirical research : The first,
volatility spillover has a different nature and magnitude depending on the period
of the pre crisis, crisis and post-crisis.
Second, there is evidence that in the pre-crisis period, there are no volatility
spillover among the ASEAN-5 stock markets, but the different results shown in
the crisis and post-crisis period, during this period of volatility spillover occurs
between the ASEAN-5 markets, but in times of crisis magnitude is larger than the
post-crisis. Internal volatility spillover occurs among ASEAN-5 is one-way
(unidirectional).Third, there is evidence of volatility spillover from the U.S. and
Japan to the ASEAN-5 markets.
At the time of pre-crisis period, the Japanese market volatility spillover
effect is greater than the American market. While in times of crisis and post-crisis,
the U.S. market gives greater influence than the Japanese market.Fourth, the
external and internal relationship in the ASEAN-5 markets become more complex
during the post-crisis., This study examines volatility spillover between ASEAN-5 countries’
equity market with USA and Japanese markets in the period January 1, 2004
through December 31, 2004. The whole time-period is divided into three periods
as related to the world financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009, namely : precrisis,
crisis and post-crisis. Bivariate GARCH (1,1) – FULL BEKK model is
employed to simultaneously estimate the conditional variance between seven
different indexes. The following are the results of empirical research : The first,
volatility spillover has a different nature and magnitude depending on the period
of the pre crisis, crisis and post-crisis.
Second, there is evidence that in the pre-crisis period, there are no volatility
spillover among the ASEAN-5 stock markets, but the different results shown in
the crisis and post-crisis period, during this period of volatility spillover occurs
between the ASEAN-5 markets, but in times of crisis magnitude is larger than the
post-crisis. Internal volatility spillover occurs among ASEAN-5 is one-way
(unidirectional).Third, there is evidence of volatility spillover from the U.S. and
Japan to the ASEAN-5 markets.
At the time of pre-crisis period, the Japanese market volatility spillover
effect is greater than the American market. While in times of crisis and post-crisis,
the U.S. market gives greater influence than the Japanese market.Fourth, the
external and internal relationship in the ASEAN-5 markets become more complex
during the post-crisis.]

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 Metadata

Jenis Koleksi : UI - Tesis Membership
No. Panggil : T42561
Entri utama-Nama orang :
Entri tambahan-Nama orang :
Entri tambahan-Nama badan :
Program Studi :
Subjek :
Penerbitan : Depok: Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Indonesia, 2014
Bahasa : ind
Sumber Pengatalogan : LibUI ind rda
Tipe Konten : text
Tipe Media : unmediated ; computer
Tipe Carrier : volume ; online resource
Deskripsi Fisik : xi, 72 pages : illustration ; 28 cm + appendix
Naskah Ringkas :
Lembaga Pemilik : Universitas Indonesia
Lokasi : Perpustakaan UI, lantai 3
  • Ketersediaan
  • Ulasan
  • Sampul
No. Panggil No. Barkod Ketersediaan
T42561 15-17-239641685 TERSEDIA
Ulasan:
Tidak ada ulasan pada koleksi ini: 20390436
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