[ABSTRAK
Penelitianbertujuan untuk mengetahui kelimpahan, dampak serta alternatifpengendalian sampah di Pantai Kuta.Luas daerah asal sampah dihitungdengan sistem informasi geografis. Dampak kelimpahan sampah dihitungberdasarkan biaya penanggulangan dan hilangnya pendapatan para pelakuusaha di Pantai Kuta. Model kelimpahan dan pengendaliansampahmenggunakan sistem dinamik dengan software PowersimConstructor2.5D. Sumber sampah Pantai Kuta berasal dari aktivitas pariwisata di PantaiKuta dan sampah yang terdampar di Pantai Kuta dari Selat Bali. Sampah SelatBali berasal dari DAS Selat Bali dan interaksi dari laut sekitar. Luas DASSelat Bali sekitar 4.470 Km2yang terdiri dari 2.419 Km2 di Pulau Jawa dan2.051 Km2 di Pulau Bali. Berdasarkan kabupaten/kota, terdapat 3 kabupatendi Pulau Jawa (Banyuwangi, Jember, Bondowoso) dan 5 kabupaten/kota diPulau Bali (Denpasar, Badung, Tabanan, Jembrana dan Buleleng) yangsebagian wilayahnya berada di DAS Selat Bali. Dampak sampah di PantaiKuta pada Januari2011 telah mengurangi pendapatan pelaku usaha hingga 71%dan meningkatkan biaya pembersihan sebesar 63%-75%.Pemodelankelimpahan sampah mengunakan data fluktuasi sampah selama 72 bulan dariMei 2007 hingga April 2013.Proyeksi pemodelan dilakukan selama 72 bulandari Mei 2013 hingga April 2019.Hasil pemodelan kelimpahan sampah PantaiKuta telah dinyatakan valid dengan nilai AME 0,127. Terdapat dua faktorpengungkit kelimpahan sampah di Pantai Kuta (KSPK) yaitu fraksi sampahyang dibuang ke sungai (F-SDS) dan fraksi sampah pertanian tak terkelola (FSPT).Hasil simulasi dengan 4 kondisi adalah sebagai berikut: 1)Simulasimodel yang diperpanjang (business as usual/BAU)mengindikasikan terjadinyapeningkatan rata-rata KSPK sebesar 7,16% dibandingkan data 72 bulansebelumnya. 2) Simulasi model dengan skenario pesimis dengan asumsi FSDSmenjadi dua kali lipat akan meningkatkan KSPK rata-rata sebesar234,70% atau naik sebesar 2,34 kali lipat dibanding BAU 3) skenario moderatdengan asumsi F-SDS dapat dikendalikan menjadi setengahnya akan dapatmenurunkan KSPK sebesar 10,79% dibanding BAU 4) skenario optimisasumsi F-SDS dan F-SPT dapat dikendalikan menjadi setengahnya akan dapatmenurunkan KSPK sebesar 16,13% di banding BAU. Pengendalian KSPKdapat dilakukan dengan peningkatan kerjasama antar pemerintah di DAS SelatBali dengan target utama adalah penurunan F-SDS dan F-SPT.

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ABSTRAK
The study aims to determine the abundance,impact and alternative of littercontrolling in Kuta Beach. The area of litter source calculated with geographicinformation systems. The impact of litter is calculated based on the clean-up costsof litter and loss of income entrepreneurs in Kuta Beach. Models abundance andlitter control using dynamic system with software Powersim Constructor 2.5D.The litter source in Kuta Beach derived from activity of tourism and litter thatstranded of Bali Strait. The litter Bali Strait is derived from the Bali Straitwatershed and the interaction of the surrounding sea. Bali Strait watershed areaaround 4,470 km2 consisting of 2,419 km2 in Java and 2,051 km2 in the island ofBali. Based on the district/city, there are 3 districts in Java (Banyuwangi, Jember,Bondowoso) and 5 districts/cities on the island of Bali (Denpasar, Badung,Tabanan, Jembrana and Buleleng) is partially of their area located in Bali Straitwatershed. The impact of litter on Kuta Beach in January 2011 has reducedentrepreneurs income by 71% and increases cleaning costs by 63%-75%.Modeling abundance using litter data for 72 months from May 2007 until April2013. Projection conducted for 72 months from May 2013 until April 2019.Modeling has been declared valid with the AME value of 0.127. There are twofactors leverage abundance of litter on Kuta Beach (KSPK) is the fractions oflitter dumped into the river (F-SDS) and fractions of unmanaged agricultural litter(F-SPT). The simulation results with 4 conditions are as follows: 1) Thesimulationmodel is extended (Business as usual / BAU) indicated an average increase of7.16% KSPK than previous 72 months. 2) Simulation model of the pessimisticscenario assuming the F-SDS doubled, KSPK will increase by an average of234.70%, up by 2.34 times compared to BAU 3) moderate scenario assuming theF-SDS can be controlled by half, KSPK will decrease by 10.79% compared toBAU 4) optimistic scenario assuming the F-SDS and F-SPT can be controlled byhalf, could decrease KSPK by 16.13% compared to BAU. KSPK control can bedone withcooperation among governments in the Bali Strait watershed with themain target is the reduction of F-SDS and F-SPT., The study aims to determine the abundance,impact and alternative of littercontrolling in Kuta Beach. The area of litter source calculated with geographicinformation systems. The impact of litter is calculated based on the clean-up costsof litter and loss of income entrepreneurs in Kuta Beach. Models abundance andlitter control using dynamic system with software Powersim Constructor 2.5D.The litter source in Kuta Beach derived from activity of tourism and litter thatstranded of Bali Strait. The litter Bali Strait is derived from the Bali Straitwatershed and the interaction of the surrounding sea. Bali Strait watershed areaaround 4,470 km2 consisting of 2,419 km2 in Java and 2,051 km2 in the island ofBali. Based on the district/city, there are 3 districts in Java (Banyuwangi, Jember,Bondowoso) and 5 districts/cities on the island of Bali (Denpasar, Badung,Tabanan, Jembrana and Buleleng) is partially of their area located in Bali Straitwatershed. The impact of litter on Kuta Beach in January 2011 has reducedentrepreneurs income by 71% and increases cleaning costs by 63%-75%.Modeling abundance using litter data for 72 months from May 2007 until April2013. Projection conducted for 72 months from May 2013 until April 2019.Modeling has been declared valid with the AME value of 0.127. There are twofactors leverage abundance of litter on Kuta Beach (KSPK) is the fractions oflitter dumped into the river (F-SDS) and fractions of unmanaged agricultural litter(F-SPT). The simulation results with 4 conditions are as follows: 1) Thesimulationmodel is extended (Business as usual / BAU) indicated an average increase of7.16% KSPK than previous 72 months. 2) Simulation model of the pessimisticscenario assuming the F-SDS doubled, KSPK will increase by an average of234.70%, up by 2.34 times compared to BAU 3) moderate scenario assuming theF-SDS can be controlled by half, KSPK will decrease by 10.79% compared toBAU 4) optimistic scenario assuming the F-SDS and F-SPT can be controlled byhalf, could decrease KSPK by 16.13% compared to BAU. KSPK control can bedone withcooperation among governments in the Bali Strait watershed with themain target is the reduction of F-SDS and F-SPT.]