ABSTRAKHubungan diantara harga saham dan nilai tukar memiliki implikasi penting
dalam memengaruhi pembangunan sebuah perekonomian negara, seiring pesatnya
integrasi pasar keuangan sehingga mendorong hubungan interaktif antara faktor
makroekonomi.
Tesis ini membahas hubungan antara harga saham dengan nilai tukar di
Lima Negara yakni China, Jepang, Korea, Singapura dan Indonesia, pada saat Pra
Krisis dan Pasca Krisis Keuangan Global. Penelitian ini mengkaji dua
permasalahan utama yakni hubungan kausal granger antara harga saham dan nilai
tukar, dan mengkaji hubungan jangka panjang antara harga saham dan nilai tukar
pada saat Pra Krisis dan Pasca Krisis. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan
Granger Causality test, Cointegration test, Vector Error Correction Model
(VECM), impulse response dan variance decomposition.
Hasil penelitian memperlihatkan adanya hubungan kausal antara harga
saham dan nilai tukar pada saat Pra dan Pasca Krisis. Kemudian, dalam jangka
panjang ditemukan adanya hubungan antara harga saham dan nilai tukar dengan
arah yang berbeda pada masing-masing negara. Untuk China dan Jepang
mendukung pendekatan portofolio balance effect, sedangkan Korea, Singapura dan
Indonesia mendukung pendekatan internasional trading effect.
ABSTRACTThe relationship between stock price and exchange rate has an important
implication for the a nation-economic-development. As the effect of the
integration of money markets will force the interactive relation between
macroeconomic factors.
This thesis analyzes the relation between stock price and exchange rate
before and after crisis in five East Asian countries which are China, Japan, Korea,
Singapore and Indonesia. This research analyzes two main problems which are the
Granger Causality relation and long run relationship between stock price and
exchange rate before and after global financial crisis. This research uses Granger
Causality test, Cointegration test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM),
Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition.
The results of this reasearch are showing a granger causality relation
between stock price and exchange rate before and after global krisis. Our result
support longrun relationship between stock price and exchange rate with different
direction for each country. China and Japan support portofolio balance effect
hypothesis, meanwhile Korea, Singapore and Indonesia support international
trading effect hypothesis.