Selama periode 1990-2013, laju pertumbuhan jumlah sepeda motor di DKI Jakarta mencapai 12 persen/tahun, delapan kali lipat laju pertumbuhan penduduk. Hal ini merupakan potensi persoalan besar bagi perekonomian DKI Jakarta. Studi ini menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi jumlah sepeda motor, inefisiensi penggunaanya dan potensi beban subsidi BBM. Berdasarkan analisis ekonometrika maupun data primer, disimpulkan bahwa faktor utama penentu pertumbuhan sepeda motor adalah pendapatan per kapita, tarif riil angkutan umum dalam kota, harga riil sepeda motor dan harga riil BBM. Sedangkan kebijakan kenaikan BBM tahun 2005 terbukti memicu kenaikan penggunaan sepeda motor. Sekalipun sepeda motor, merupakan alat transportasi termurah dan tercepat untuk jarak pendek (≤ 15 kilometer) namun secara ekonomi penggunaanya mahal/tidak efisien. Misalnya, jumlah sepeda motor yang ada sudah empat kali lebih besar dibandingkan dengan yang dibutuhkan, yang menimbulkan masalah pemborosan energi. Bila subsidi BBM tetap Rp.1000/liter, hasil proyeksi menunjukkan bahwa akumulasi potensi subsidi BBM 2016-2020 dapat mencapai Rp.46 triliun.

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During the period 1990-2013, the rate of growth in the number of motorcycles in DKI Jakarta reached 12 percent / year, the rate eightfold of population growth. This is a potential problem for the economy of DKI Jakarta. This study analyzes the factors that influence the number of motorcycles, the inefficiency of its use and the potential burden of fuel subsidies. Based on the econometric analysis and primary data, it was concluded that the determining factor for the growth of the motorcycle is income per capita, real rates of public transport in the city, the real price of a motorcycle and the real price of fuel. While the fuel price hike policy in 2005 proved to trigger an increase in the use of motorcycles. Even motorcycles, the cheapest and fastest means of transportation for short distances (≤ 15 kilometers), but its use is economically expensive / not efficient. For example, the number of motorcycles that there are already four times greater than required, which raises the problem of energy wastage. When the fuel subsidies remain Rp.1000 / liter, the projection indicates that the accumulation potential fuel subsidy from 2016 to 2020 can reach Rp.46 trillion.