ABSTRAKTurbulensi ekonomi global atau krisis ekonomi global merupakan satu
masalah besar dalam perekonomian yang saling terintegrasi, khususnya
pada saat ini. Adanya turbulensi ekonomi global yang tercermin melalui
indeks volatilitas global sebagai early warning system terhadap krisis
yangberhubungan langsung dengan cadangan devisa, mengingat fungsi
cadangan devisa itu sendiri sebagai bentuk recovery atau intervensi terhadap
terjadinya turbulensi ekonomi global. Oleh karenanya perlu dilihat
bagaimana hubungan turbulensi ekonomi global (yang tercermin melalui
indeks volatilitas global) terhadap tren cadangan devisa di negara emerging
market, khususnya di enam negara (Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philipina,
Thailand, dan Turki) sebagai negara subjek penelitian, dengan membagi
keenam negara tersebut menjadi dua kelompok; Fragile Groups (Brazil,
Indonesia, dan Turki) dan Robust Groups (Malaysia, Philipina, dan
Thailand).Selain tren cadangan devisa, penelitian ini juga akan melihat
perubahan realokasi asset keenam negara tersebut, yang disinyalir banyak
pergeseran kearah asset yang dinilai lebih likuid dan konvertibel. Tujuan
penelitian ini adalah menganalisis pengaruh indeks volatilitas global
terhadap tren cadangan devisa di negara emerging market dan menganalisis
perubahan realokasi asset cadangan devisa mereka.
Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian kuantitatif dengan menggunakan
data panel, data yang digunakan berupa time series (tahun 1990-2014) dan
cross section (enam negara kelompok emerging market countries). Jenis
data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder yang
diperoleh dari International Monetary Fund(IMF), International Financial
Statistics (IFS), World Bank Indicators (WDI), World Integrated Trade
Solution (WITS), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) dan World
Bank. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah metode analisis panel dengan
metode FEM digunakan alat bantu softwareSTATA 12.
ABSTRACTGlobal economic turbulence or the global economic crisis is a big
problem in an integrated economy, particularly at this time. Their economic
turbulence global (economic shock) which is currently reflected through the
index of global volatility (VIX) as an early warning system against the
economic crisis directly related to the foreign exchange reserves, given the
function of foreign exchange reserves itself as a form of recovery or
intervention against the potential risks global. Therefore, need to be seen
how the relationship between index of global volatility (VIX) to the trend of
foreign exchange reserves in emerging market countries, especially in six
countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and
Turkey) as a state research subject, by dividing the six countries into two
groups; Fragile Groups (Brazil, Indonesia, and Turkey) and Robust Groups
(Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). In addition to the trend of foreign
reserves, this study will also see changes in asset reallocation of the six
countries, which allegedly many shifts towards assets considered more
liquid and convertible. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effects
of global volatility index against the trend of foreign exchange reserves in
emerging market countries and analyze changes in asset reallocation of their
foreign reserves.
This research is a quantitative research using panel data, the data
used in the form of time series (years 1990-2014) and cross section (the sixnation
group of emerging market countries). The data used in this research
is secondary data obtained from the International Monetary Fund (IMF),
International Financial Statistics (IFS), the World Bank Indicators (WDI),
the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the World Bank. The
analytical method used is the analysis method panel with FEM method used
STATA 12 software tools.