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Peramalan tingkat konsumsi gas bumi domestik di Indonesia dengan metode regresi linear berganda dan jaringan saraf tiruan = Forecasting of domestic gas consumption level in Indonesia with multi linear regression and artificial neural network

Ika Kusuma Wardhani; Farizal, supervisor; M. Dachyar, supervisor; Djoko Sihono Gabriel, examiner; Rahmat Nurcahyo, examiner ([Publisher not identified] , 2018)

 Abstract

ABSTRAK
Gas alam adalah salah satu energi utama yang banyak digunakan di Indonesia. Pemanfaatan gas alam di berbagai aspek masyarakat telah mendorong gas alam untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional. Pemanfaatan ini juga didorong oleh dukungan pemerintah untuk pengembangan infrastruktur gas alam dan tata kelola kebijakan energi. Untuk mendukung pengaturan pasokan dan pemanfaatan gas alam, diperlukan perencanaan alokasi gas alam jangka panjang. Langkah awal dalam merencanakan alokasi adalah untuk memperkirakan tingkat konsumsi gas alam di Indonesia. Penelitian ini memberikan gambaran tentang perkiraan konsumsi gas dengan dua metode yaitu menggunakan jaringan saraf tiruan dan regresi linear berganda. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, diperoleh hasil nilai error menggunakan mean square error MSE adalah 0,0154 untuk regresi linear berganda dan 0,0117 untuk metode jaringan saraf tiruan sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa metode jaringan saraf tiruan lebih baik dalam memprediksi nilai konsumsi gas bumi. Serta dari hasil peramalan dengan kedua metode, terlihat adanya peningkatan permintaan gas alam untuk kebutuhan domestik Indonesia.

ABSTRACT
Natural gas is one of the main energy that is widely used in Indonesia. Utilization of natural gas in various aspects of society has encouraged natural gas to boost national economic growth. This utilization is also driven by government support for the development of natural gas infrastructure and energy policy governance. To support the regulation of supply and utilization of natural gas, long term natural gas allocation planning is required. The first step in plotting allocations is to estimate the level of natural gas consumption in Indonesia. This study will provide an overview of the estimated gas consumption by two methods, namely using Artificial Neural Network and Multiple Linear Regression. Based on the result of research, error value using mean square error MSE is 0.0154 for multiple linear regression method and 0,0117 for artificial neural network method so it can be concluded that artificial neural network method is better in predicting the value of natural gas consumption. As well as from the results of forecasting with both methods, there is an increase in demand for natural gas for domestic needs of Indonesia

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 Metadata

Collection Type : UI - Tesis Membership
Call Number : T51216
Main entry-Personal name :
Additional entry-Personal name :
Additional entry-Corporate name :
Study Program :
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Publishing : [Place of publication not identified]: [Publisher not identified], 2018
Cataloguing Source LibUI ind rda
Content Type text
Media Type unmediated ; computer
Carrier Type volume ; online resource
Physical Description x, 79 pages : illustration ; 28 cm + appendix
Concise Text
Holding Institution Universitas Indonesia
Location Perpustakaan UI, Lantai 3
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Call Number Barcode Number Availability
T51216 15-19-352975409 TERSEDIA
Review:
No review available for this collection: 20475695
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