ABSTRAKKajian ini menganalisis penyebab dari gagalnya diplomasi koersif Amerika Serikat terhadap Iran pasca keluar dari Joint Comprehensive Plan of Actions (JCPOA). Tidak puas dengan JCPOA, pemerintahan Trump memutuskan untuk keluar secara sepihak dari kesepakatan tersebut kemudiansegera menerapkan diplomasi koersif kepada Iran dengan tujuan untuk membuat kesepakatan baru yang lebih komprehensif di luar JCPOA. Diplomasi koersif tersebut diimplementasikan melalui kampanye maximum pressureyang mengandalkan ancaman dan implementasi sanksi-sanksi keras kepada Iran. Maximum pressure tersebut kemudian diintegrasikan ke dalam strategi diplomasi koersif ultimatum (2018) dan gradual turning of the screw (2019). Dengan menggunakan teori efektivitas diplomasi koersif dan metode penelitian causal-process tracing, kajian ini menemukan bahwa penyebab dari gagalnya diplomasi koersif Amerika Serikat pada periode 2018-2019 adalah karena tidak terpenuhinya seluruh variabel-variabel efektivitas diplomasi koersif yaitu legitimasi tujuan, kewajaran dan konsistensi permintaan, kredibilitas ancaman, insentif, serta asimetri motivasi.

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ABSTRACT

This study analyzes the failure of U.S. coercive diplomacy against Iran after U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Actions (JCPOA). Unsatisfied with the terms of the agreement in the JCPOA, the Trump administration decided to unilaterally withdraw from the deal in May 2018 and immediately employ coercive diplomacy against Iran with the objective of making a new and more comprehensive deal outside JCPOA. The use of coercive diplomacy by the U.S. was implemented through a maximum pressure campaign that relied both on threats and use of harsh sanctions that are integrated into two different strategy of coercive diplomacy, namely ultimatum in 2018 and gradual turning of the screw in 2019. Using the effectiveness theory of coercive diplomacy and causal-process tracing method, this study found that U.S. failure to achieve its policy objective is due to the non-fulfillment of effectiveness variables of the theory such as the legitimacy of the objective, the reasonability and consistency of the demand, the credibility of the threats, incentives, and asymmetry of motivation.