Artikel Jurnal :: Kembali

Artikel Jurnal :: Kembali

Forecasting Indonesian inflation within an inflation-targeting framework: Do large-scale models pay off?

Solikin M. Juhro, Bernard Njindan Lyke (Bank Indonesia Institute, 2019)

 Abstrak

We examine the usefulness of large-scale inflation forecasting models in Indonesia within an inflation-targeting framework. Using a dynamic model averaging approach to address three issues the policymaker faces when forecasting inflation, namely, parameter, predictor, and model uncertainties, we show that large-scale models have significant payoffs. Our in-sample forecasts suggest that 60% of 15 exogenous predictors significantly forecast inflation, given a posterior inclusion probability cut-off of approximately 50%. We show that nearly 87% of the predictors can forecast inflation if we lower the cut-off to approximately 40%. Our out-of-sample forecasts suggest that large-scale inflation forecasting models have substantial forecasting power relative to simple models of inflation persistence at longer horizons.

 Metadata

Jenis Koleksi : Artikel Jurnal
No. Panggil : 332 BEMP 22:4 (2019)
Entri utama-Nama orang :
Entri tambahan-Nama orang :
Subjek :
Penerbitan : Jakarta: Bank Indonesia Institute, 2019
Sumber Pengatalogan : LibUI eng rda
ISSN : 14108046
Majalah/Jurnal : Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking
Volume : Vol. 22, No. 4, December 2019: Hal. 423-436
Tipe Konten : text
Tipe Media : unmediated
Tipe Carrier : volume
Akses Elektronik :
Institusi Pemilik : Universitas Indonesia
Lokasi : Perpustakaan UI, Lantai 4, R. Koleksi Jurnal
  • Ketersediaan
  • Ulasan
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No. Panggil No. Barkod Ketersediaan
332 BEMP 22:4 (2019) 08-21-873503766 TERSEDIA
Ulasan:
Tidak ada ulasan pada koleksi ini: 20512317
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