Studi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis efek trade creation dan trade diversion dari penerapan AIFTA pada ekspor dan impor Indonesia menggunakan data agregat dan disagregat yang terdiri dari 6 komoditas. Sampel penelitian terdiri dari 25 negara pada periode 2006-2017. Metode estimasi menggunakan Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML). Hasil estimasi menunjukkan penerapan AIFTA menimbulkan efek negatif export trade diversion yang signifikan. Pada data disagregat, net trade creation terdapat pada komoditas food-drinks-tobacco and live animals, energy products dan raw materials. Selain itu, net trade diversion terdapat pada komoditas other manufactured goods dan machinery and transport equipment

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This research aims to analyzes the effects of trade creation and trade diversion of the AIFTA implementation on export and import of Indonesia using agregate and disagregate data consists of 6 commodites. This study’s sample consists of 25 countries from 2006-2017. Estimation method using Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML). The result indicate that there are significant evidence for the export trade diversion. Using disaggregated data, net trade creation effect is found in food-drinks-tobacco and live animals, energy products, and raw materials commodity. Meanwhile, net trade diversion effect is found in other manufactured goods and machinery and transport equipment commodity.