LATAR BELAKANG: Banyak faktor mempengaruhi prognosis luka bakar, data di Indonesia belum ada yang rinci. Dengan mengetahui faktor prognostik terpenting, akan dimungkinkan menetapkan penatalaksanaan yang tepat_ Perbaikan standar penatalaksana an membawa perbaikan nyata untuk menekan mortalitas.METODE: Penelitian kohort historikal menggunakan subyek penderita luka bakar rawat inap di RSCM Januari I998-Mei 2001. Semua yang memenuhi kriteria inklusi diambil. Analisis data dengan survival analysis menggunakan Cox proportional hazard untuk mencari perhitungan ketahanan hidup.HASIL: Dari 156 penderita didapat angka mortalitas 27,6%. Penderita terbanyak berusia 19 tahun, laki-laki lebih banyak 1,6 x dari perempuan. Penyebab tersering api (55,1%) dan terjadi dirurnah (72,4%). Ditemukan luka bakar terbanyak derajat 2° (76,9%) dengan Iuas terbanyak 27%, interquartile range 19-43%. Faktor prognostik terpenting dengan nilai hazard ratio (HR) dan 95% confidence interval (CI) masing-masing adalah syok-SIRS 12,05 (2,36;60,95), trombositopeni 10,78 (2,23;52,05), trauma inhalasi 5,20 (2,77;9,77), syok 4,87 (1,25;18,98) dan luas>50% 4,35 (1,22;15,59)KESIMPULAN: Penatalaksanaan resusitasi cairan yang tepat dan resusitasi jalan napas dapat menekan angka mortalitas penderita luka bakar. Trombositopeni merupakan salah satu petanda awal kemungkinan sepsis/SIRS.

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Prognostic factors in moderate and severe burn patients at Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo National General Hospital Jakarta 1998-May 2001. BACKGROUND: Several factors influence the outcome of burn injuries. Knowing the most important factors influencing the outcome of burn might be helpfull in developing new strategies for patient care. Improvement of burn patients management can reduce mortality rate.

METHODS: Data from historical cohort were analyzed using Cox proportional hazard. One hundred fifty six burn patients hospitalized at Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo National General Hospital from January 1998-May 2001 were selected consecutively according to inclusion criteria.

RESULTS: From the 156 patients studied, mortality rate was 27,6%. Median patient age was 19 years , male : female ratio 1,6:1. The most common cause of thermal injury was flame (55,1%) and the majority occured at home (72,4%). Second degree burns were dominant (76,9%) with median burn size 27% Total Body Surface Area ( interquartile 19-43). The most important prognostic factors, hazard ratios and 95% confidence interval were shock with SIRS 12,05 (2,36;60,95), thrombocytopenia 10,78 (2,23;52,05), inhalation injury 5,20 (2,77;9,77), shock 4,87 (1,25;18,98) and burn size >50% 4,35 (1,22;15,59).

CONCLUSIONS: Adequate fluid rescusitation and respiratory rescusitation can overcome important factors influencing burn patients outcome in order to reduce mortality rate. Thrombocytopenia can be use as an early sign of impending sepsis/SIRS.