ABSTRAKPeningkatan konsentrasi gas rumah kaca (GRK) di atmosfer telah meningkatkan suhu permukaan bumi sehingga terjadi pemanasan global yang mengakibatkan naiknya permukaan air laut dan terjadinya perubahan iklim yang berdampak merugikan terhadap manusia dan lingkungan.Pada hakekatnya keberadaan GRK di atmosfer tidak selalu merugikan. Dalam UNEP (1992), ditegaskan bahwa peranan konsentrasi GRK yang stabil di atmosfer mempunyai arti sangat penting bagi keberlanjutan kehidupan di bumi. Konsentrasi karbon dioksida dan metan yang berlebihan dapat meningkatkan panas bumi dan perubahan iklim yang drastis dan berbahaya bagi kehidupan.Tahun 1988, WMO dan UNEP membentuk suatu panel untuk mengkaji perubahan iklim global, yaitu International Panel an Climate Change (IPCC). Berdasarkan penelitian IPCC dan World Climate Program (WCP) tahun 1990, disimpulkan bahwa akan terjadi peningkatan temperatur bumi sekitar 2 - 5 °C dalam waktu satu abad mendatang pada tingkat laju emisi GRK sekarang.Jumlah ernisi metan global dari berbagai sumber, dalam Bolin et al. (1986), menurut Sheppard et al. adalah 1210 Tg Khalil & Rasmussen, 553 T& Blake 500-1160 Tg; Critter', 400 Tg dan menurut Seiler adalah 300-550 Tg. Sedangkan jumlah emisi metan global yang bersumber dari tempat pembuangan akhir sampah (TPA), menurut Bingemer & Crutzeu (1987), adalah 30-70 Tg metan per tahun yang berarti 7% dari seluruh emisi metan global atau kira-kira 14% dari emisi metan akibat kegiatan manusia (anthropogenic emissions). Jumlah emisi metan dari TPA ini, berbeda dengan hasil seminar IPCC tahun 1990, yang berkisar antara 25-40 Tg per tahun. Emisi berasal dari berbagai negara dan wilayah, seperti Kanada 1 Tg per tahun, Jepang 0.17 Tg, Oseania 1.25 Tg, Amerika Serikat 8-18 Tg, Rusia dan Eropa Timur 5-8 Tg, dan negara negara berkembang 4-7 Tg per tahun. World Resources dalam Suharsono et al. (1996), menyatakan bahwa Indonesia mengemisikan metan sebesar 480 Tg per tahun. Sedangkan Jakarta menghasilkan 76.61 Tg metan pada tahun 1991.Untuk mengetahui besar emisi dan memprediksi kecendenmgan emisi metan di TPA, dilakukan penelitian dengan metode penelitian Ex Post Facto di TPA Bantar Gebang. Estimasi emisi metan dilakukan dengan metode IPCC yang dikombinasikan dengan metode statistic. Tujuan yang hendak dicapai dengan penelitian ini adalah untuk (1) mengetahui karakteristik sampah di TPA Bantar Gebang, (2) mengestimasi emisi metan dan memprediksi kecenderungan emisi metan, (3) mengetahui faktor yang mempengaruhi pembentukan metan dan (4) mengusulkan alternative mitigasi untuk mengantisipasi peningkatan laju emisi metan di TPA Bantar Gebang.Guna mencapai tujuan penelitian tersebut, diperlukan berbagai asumsi bahwa (1) jumlah produksi sampah per orang per hari relatif tetap, (2) komposisi dan kepadatan sampah yang dibuang ke TPA Bantar Gebang relatif tetap, (3) metan dilepaskan (released) sepanjang tahun sejak sampah dibuang ke TPA Bantar Gebang, (4) kondisi iklim relatif tetap, dan (5) nilai kesalahan (default value) dan rasio konversi (coversion ratio) biogas terhadap metan dalam metode IPCC dapat diterima sejauh tidak terdapat nilai kesalahan dan rasio konversi yang lebih spesifik.Daftar Pustaka : 44 (1971-1996)

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ABSTRACT

Estimation and Trend Prediction of Methane Emission in Sanitary Landfill (a Case Study at Bantar Gebang Sanitary Landfill)In the ascendant of the concentration of the greenhouse gases at the atmosphere has raised the earth surface temperature impacted global warming which caused sea level raise and climate change which have negative impact to human being and environment.

Basically, the existing of greenhouse gasses at the atmosphere does not always have negative impact. In UNEP (1992), it was stressed that the function of greenhouse gasses concentration if they were stable at the atmosphere had a very important meaning for the continue of living on the earth. Carbon dioxide and methane concentration could raise global warming as well as drastic climate change that dangerous for living.

In 1988, WMO and UNEP created the panel to analyze the global climate change, namely International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Based on the research done by IPCC and WCP (World Climate Program) in 1990, it was concluded that there would be raised of earth temperature about 2-5 °C in next coming century at the current level of greenhouse gasses emissions.

Number of global methane emissions from some resources in Bolin et al (1986), mentioned that according to Sheppard et al. was 1210 Tg, Khalil & Rasmussen was 553 Tg, Blake was 500-1160 Tg, Crutzen was 400 Tg and according to Seiler was 300-500 Tg. Whereas, according to Bingemer & Crutzen (1987), the number afglobal methane emission from sanitary landfill was 30-70 Tg per year which meant 7% of all global methane emission or approximately 14% out of methane emission caused by anthropogenic emission. The total number of methane emission had been estimated by Bingemer & Crutzen (1987) was different from the result of IPCC seminar in 1990 which stated that global emission of methane from sanitary landfill was 25-40 Tg per year which produced by many countries or regions such as: Canada 1 Tg per year, Japan 0.17 Tg, Oceania 1.25 Tg, USA 8-18 Tg, Russia & East Europe 5-8 Tg, and developing countries 4-7 Tg per year. According to World Resources in Suharsono et al. (1996), Indonesia had emitted 480 Gg methane per year while Jakarta bred 76.61 Gg per year.

To estimate how much the emission was and to predict the trend of methane emission at Banter Gebang sanitary landfill, the estimation of methane emission has gotten by using )PCC method which combined with statistic method. The objectives of this study are (1) to perceive the characteristic of municipal solid waste at Banter Gebang sanitary landfill, (2) to estimate the methane emission and to predict the tendency of methane emission, (3) to find out the factors which influence the methane emission , and (4) to propose the mitigation options in order to anticipate methane emission growth.

To achieve those research objectives, some assumptions are needed such as (1) amount of daily individual solid waste production is relatively constant, (2) composition and density of solid waste disposed to Banter Gebang sanitary landfill is relatively constant, (3) methane released since the solid waste has been being disposed to Banter Gebang sanitary landfill, (4) climate condition is relatively constant, and (5) default value as well as conversion ratio of biogas to methane in IPCC method can be accepted as long as no default value and conversion ratio which are more specific.

Bibliography: 44 (1971-1996)