Background: Community acquired pneumonia (CAP) in the elderly is still a major problem due to its high morbidity and mortality. There is considerable variability in ?the result of various studies on prognostic factors. The prognostic factors in Indonesia have not been identified.
Methods: We performed a prospective cohort study on 147 elderly patients hospitalized with CAP in the internal medicine ward of Cipto Mangunkusumo National Central General Hospital, Jakarta from September 2002 to March 2003. We calculated the survival rate during hospitalize-tion. We used Cox proportional-hazard regression analysis to examine factors associated with mortality in the first 48 hours of hospitalization. .
Results: There were 34 deaths (23.1) associated with CAP in 1471 person-days. The survival rate at day 5, 10 and 15 were 88.9%, 77.2 and 67.2% respectively. Severe. pneumonia, an serum albumin of d"3.5 g/dL, reduced
consciousness, temperature > 37.0"C, and a hemoglobin level of d" 9.0 g/dL demonstrated a tendency towards increased mortality rate. Other factors such as age, sex, immobilization, swollen disorders, co-morbidities, leukocyte count, and serum creatinine level demonstrated no significant relationship with mortality.
Conclusion: Severe pneumonia, low serum albumin, decreased consciousness, high temperature and low hemoglobin level in the first 48 hours hospitalization were found to be worse prognostic factors. Early identification and modification of these factors are recommended.
