UI - Tesis (Membership) :: Kembali

UI - Tesis (Membership) :: Kembali

Sistem pembantu pengambilan keputusan tindakan koreksi risiko investasi dan operasi infrastruktur kereta api dengan model simulasi monte carlo indikator net present value at risk studi kasus propinsi banten

Lubis, Aldi Parlindungan; Bambang Susantono, supervisor; Ismeth Abidin, supervisor (Fakultas Teknik Universitas Indonesia, 2004)

 Abstrak

Pemakaian aplikasi komputer sebagai alai pembantu pengambilan keputusan telah berkembang di segala bidang, seperli investasi. Salah satu bidang yang juga menjadi obyek penelitian adalah pengembangan sistem pembantu pengambilan keputusan atau Decision Support System (DSS) untuk masalah investasi infrastruktur kereta api (KA). Masalah investasi infrastruktur KA antara lain keterbatasan anggaran pemerintah serta sulit atau enggannya swasla untuk berinvestasi. Hal ini disebabkan oleh tingginya risiko investasi Berta operasional. Hasa studi Pre-TS double track Propinsi Banten menyarankan bahwa perlu keterlibatan swasta untuk mewujudkan proyek double track dan perlunya manajemen yang lebih balk pada tahap operasional. Oleh karena itu DSS dirancang agar mampu melakukan analisis investasi dan risiko. Caton pengguna dart DSS diharapkan adalah badan pengelola khusus yang bertanggung jawab menjalankan proyek double track. Sebagai metode analisis utama digunakan analisis anus kas dan Simulasi Monte Carlo.
DSS dirancang untuk tahap perencanaan dan tahap operasional. DSS mempunyai fungsi perencanaan, pengawasan atau monitoring dan pengendalian atau controlling. Sebagai acuan pengawasan dan pengendalian digunakan NPV at risk karena memperhitungkan risiko don metode pembiayaan proyek Hasil simulasi akan menghasilkan distribusi kumulatif normal NPV dan probabilitas NPV>O serta NPV
Pemilihan jenis dan waktu pelaksanaan lindakan koreksi merupakan hak pengambil keputusan sedangkan DSS telah melakukan fungsi pembantu pengambilan keputusan. Paola fungsi pengawasan, pengambil keputusan mempunyai hak untuk tidak melanjutkan ke fungsi pengendalian walaupun basil pengawasan bisa balk atau buruk Sebagai bagian akhir untuk membuktikan hipotesis, dilakukan validasi terhadap DSS kepada beberapa responden. Hasil validasi menunjukkan model cukup bisa diterima oleh responden sebagai DSS dengan calatan perbaikan pada sisi user friendliness. Namun NPV at risk tidak dapat digunakan sebagai acuan untuk tahap pengawasan dan pengendalian operasional sehingga hipotesis tidak terbukti dan tujuan penelitian gagal dicapai.

Computer application, as decision support tool, has been using wide spread in many areas, such as investment. Developing Decision Support System (DSS) for railways infrastructure investment problem become an object of this research. The Investment problems is limited budget of government while private participation difficulty to join in. This is because the character of railway investment which is high risk in investment and operation phase. Early study of feasibility in developing double track in Banten Province suggest that involvement of private sector is needed to support financing and better way in management on operation phase. Therefore, DSS is developed and has ability in investment and risk analysis especially on planning and operation phase. The candidate user of DSS is special purpose vehicle which has responsible for operating the double track project. As fundamental methods, the DSS apply discounted cash flow analysis and Monte Carlo simulation.
DSS is designed to planning and operation phase. DSS has planning, monitoring and controlling functions. As indicator to plan, monitor and control the investment, NPV at risk is used because it takes financing method and risks into account. The DSS will simulate and produce cumulative distribution function of NPV and Probability of NPVVO and NPVJ0. If, on operation phase, the DSS monitoring function analyze that the output has difference between planning result then the next step should be taken. his the controlling function of DSS. In this function, the user has desire to repair the CDF and Probability of NPV result from monitoring function. Therefore, corrective actions are needed. There are four kinds of corrective actions in DSS. They are currency forward, interest cap rate, operational management and lobbying government to get support in making policy. To operate corrective action analysis, End year of controlling phase must be decided then decide each corrective action start and end yea then DSS start to make a new projection. Output of this operation is new CDF and Probability of NPV. Estimate cost and benefit of corrective actions is, also, become analysis output.
Although the DSS had provide information to support decision making, h is fully the right of decision maker in selecting kind and time of corrective actions. In monitoring function, decision maker has the right to go or not go to the next stage whether the result of monitoring is good or bad. Last but not least is validation step of DSS_ In validation step, Respondents try to use the DSS'and give a response via questionnaire. The result shown that respondents rather satisfy with the model as DSS as they need more user friendliness using the DSS. Unfortunately, as NPV at risk can not used as indicator on monitoring and controlling operation phase so the hypothesis and the goal of this research are fail to achieve.

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 Metadata

No. Panggil : T14984
Entri utama-Nama orang :
Entri tambahan-Nama orang :
Entri tambahan-Nama badan :
Subjek :
Penerbitan : Depok: Fakultas Teknik Universitas Indonesia, 2004
Program Studi :
Sumber Pengatalogan :
Tipe Konten :
Tipe Media :
Tipe Carrier :
Deskripsi Fisik : xiv, 117 hlm. : ill. ; 28 cm. + lamp.
Catatan Bibliografi : hlm. 113-117
Lembaga Pemilik : Universitas Indonesia
Lokasi : Perpustakaan UI, Lantai 3
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No. Panggil No. Barkod Ketersediaan
T14984 15-19-946438821 TERSEDIA
Ulasan:
Tidak ada ulasan pada koleksi ini: 97855
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