Pembangunan jalan tol tengah sangat gencar dilakukan oleh pemerintah dan pembangunannya pun sangat diutamakan, ditandai dengan status Proyek Strategis Nasional (PSN) yang mengawalnya. Salah satu upaya yang dilakukan untuk mempercepat dan meningkatkan daya tarik adalah dengan menggunakan skema kontrak Contractor Full Pre-Fianance (CPF). Namun, di sisi lain skema kontrak CPF membebani kontraktor dengan risiko – risiko yang sebelumnya merupakan risiko pemilik proyek. Melalui pandapat pakar penelitian ini memvalidasi 22 indikator risiko yang terbagi ke dalam 5 kategori risiko (Politik, Ekonomi, Konstruksi, Kontrak, dan Manajemen Proyek) pada proyek jalan tol dengan skema CPF yang berpengaruh terhadap kinerja biaya. Kemudian, diidentifikasi indikator – indikator risiko dominan melalui studi kasus item pekerjaan sisa pada Proyek Jalan Tol XYZ yang kemudian diketahui indikator risiko dominan tersebut berpengaruh terhadap tingkat Cost Overrun proyek sebesar 18,41%, 21,56%, 23,03%, dan 24,08% berdasarkan analisis PERT dan simulasi Monte Carlo pada confident level p = 80%, 90%, dan 95%. Untuk mengurangi tingkat risiko tersebut dilakukan strategi pelaksanaan yang diidentifikasi terdapat 16 tindakan preventif dan 13 tindakan korektif terhadap item pekerjaan “vital few” dengan potensi dapat mengurangi tingkat Cost Overrun proyek menjadi sebesar 11,01%, 13,28%, 14,46%, dan 15,35%.

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The construction of the toll road is currently being carried out very intensively by the government and its construction is also highly prioritized, marked by the status of the National Strategic Project (PSN) which oversees it. One of the efforts made to accelerate and increase attractiveness is to use the Contractor Full Pre-Fianance (CPF) scheme. However, on the other hand, the CPF contract scheme burdens the contractor with risks that were previously the risk of the project owner. Through expert opinion, this research validates 22 risk indicators which are divided into 5 risk categories (Politics, Economics, Construction, Contracts, and Project Management) in toll road projects with CPF schemes that affect cost performance. Then, the dominant risk indicators were identified through case studies of remaining work items on the XYZ Toll Road Project. It was later discovered that these dominant risk indicators had an effect on the project's Cost Overrun rate of 18.41%, 21.56%, 23.03%, and 24 .08% based on PERT analysis and Monte Carlo simulation at the confidence level p = 80%, 90%, and 95%. To reduce the level of risk, an implementation strategy was carried out which identified 16 preventive actions and 13 corrective actions for "vital few" work items with the potential to reduce the project's Cost Overrun rate to 11.01%, 13.28%, 14.46%, and 15.35%.