Penelitian ini menganalisis dampak kebijakan proteksionis terhadap rantai pasok dan daya saing industri tekstil Indonesia dengan pendekatan data panel HS code periode 2005–2023 dan metode regresi Random Effect. Instrumen yang dikaji meliputi BMAD, BMTP, Persetujuan Impor (PI), dan Laporan Surveyor (LS). Hasil menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan proteksionis tidak berdampak signifikan terhadap volume impor barang upstream dan midstream, meski ada kecenderungan negatif. Sebaliknya, variabel makroekonomi seperti harga kapas dunia dan PDB lebih berpengaruh, terutama di segmen midstream dan downstream. Impor barang upstream terbukti berpengaruh positif terhadap ekspor midstream, menandakan pentingnya bahan baku impor untuk sektor menengah. Namun, tidak ditemukan hubungan serupa pada ekspor downstream, menunjukkan terbatasnya transmisi dampak hingga produk akhir. Kesimpulannya, kebijakan proteksionis belum efektif mendukung integrasi supply chain dan daya saing ekspor tekstil. Diperlukan strategi industri yang menyeimbangkan perlindungan domestik dan kebutuhan impor, serta penguatan koordinasi antarsegmen rantai nilai untuk meningkatkan efisiensi dan keberlanjutan industri tekstil nasional.

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This study analyzes the impact of protectionist policies on the supply chain and competitiveness of Indonesia’s textile industry using panel data at the HS code level from 2005 to 2023 and a Random Effect regression method. The instruments examined include Anti-Dumping Duties (BMAD), Safeguard Duties (BMTP), Import Approvals (PI), and Surveyor Reports (LS). The results show that protectionist policies do not have a significant effect on the import volume of upstream and midstream goods, although the coefficient trends are negative. In contrast, macroeconomic variables such as global cotton prices and GDP have a more dominant influence, especially in the midstream and downstream segments. Imports of upstream goods have a positive and significant impact on midstream exports, indicating the importance of imported raw materials for the intermediate sector. However, a similar relationship is not observed between upstream and midstream imports and downstream exports, suggesting limited transmission of policy effects to final products. In conclusion, protectionist policies have not been effective in supporting supply chain integration and export competitiveness in the textile industry. An industrial strategy that balances domestic protection with the need for imported inputs, along with stronger coordination across value chain segments, is necessary to enhance the efficiency and sustainability of the national textile industry.