Produk tekstil yang diperdagangkan melalui Pasar Cipadu masih sangat bergantung pada moda truk, yang sering menimbulkan permasalahan seperti kemacetan dan pencemaran udara di area distribusi, khususnya di sekitar Pasar Cipadu dan rute pengirimannya. Sebagai pusat perdagangan tekstil dengan volume pengiriman tinggi, Pasar Cipadu menjadi fokus pengembangan alternatif moda transportasi yang lebih efisien dan ramah lingkungan, seperti layanan angkutan barang berbasis kereta api. Kawasan Pasar Cipadu berdekatan dengan Stasiun Kereta Kebayoran. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi preferensi perpindahan moda dari truk ke kereta api, membangun model prediksi perpindahan moda, serta mengevaluasi potensi perpindahan moda berdasarkan analisis sensitivitas model. Penelitian dilakukan secara kuantitatif menggunakan metode stated preference dengan data primer yang dikumpulkan melalui kuesioner dari pelaku usaha toko di Pasar Cipadu. Analisis regresi logistik digunakan untuk menghasilkan fungsi utilitas dan menguji variabel signifikan, yakni jarak pengiriman, penghematan biaya, dan penambahan waktu pengiriman. Dari penelitian ini dikembangkan dua model prediksi berdasarkan klasifikasi jarak pengiriman yang kemudian divalidasi dan diuji sensitivitasnya. Hasil penelitian diharapkan menjadi bahan rujukan bagi regulator dan pemangku kepentingan dalam perencanaan dan pengembangan layanan kereta api barang yang berkelanjutan di kawasan Pasar Cipadu dan rute menuju Stasiun Kebayoran.

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Textile products traded through Cipadu Market still rely heavily on trucks, which often cause problems such as congestion and air pollution in the distribution area, especially around Cipadu Market and its delivery route to Kebayoran Station. As a textile trading center with a high shipping volume, Cipadu Market has become a focus for the development of alternative, more efficient, and environmentally friendly transportation modes, such as rail-based freight services. This study aims to analyze the factors influencing the preference for modal shift from trucks to trains, develop a model for predicting modal shift, and evaluate the potential for modal shift based on a sensitivity analysis of the model. The study was conducted quantitatively using the stated preference method with primary data collected through questionnaires from shop owners in Cipadu Market. Logistic regression analysis was used to generate utility functions and test significant variables, namely delivery distance, cost savings, and increased delivery time. From this study, two prediction models were developed based on the classification of delivery distances, which were then validated and tested for sensitivity. The study's results are expected to serve as a reference for regulators and stakeholders in planning and developing sustainable freight train services in the Cipadu Market area and the route to Kebayoran Station.