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"Penelitian ini mengkaji dampak guncangan harga energi terhadap kinerja 63 bank utama di negara-negara berkembang anggota BRICS+Indonesia selama periode 2004–2023. Dengan menggunakan berbagai teknik estimasi empiris, termasuk Fixed Effects, Random Effects, Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS), dan System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa guncangan harga energi memiliki pengaruh positif yang signifikan terhadap kinerja sektor perbankan jika diukur melalui Return on Equity (ROE), namun tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap Return on Assets (ROA). Temuan ini tetap konsisten meskipun telah dikontrol dengan sejumlah variabel makroekonomi dan keuangan utama. Penelitian ini juga menambahkan variabel yang mencerminkan struktur keuangan nasional—yaitu rasio kapitalisasi pasar saham terhadap PDB, simpanan bank terhadap PDB, dan kredit domestik terhadap sektor swasta sebagai persentase dari PDB. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa ketiga variabel tersebut secara signifikan memengaruhi ROE, sementara hanya variabel simpanan bank terhadap PDB yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ROA. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa guncangan harga energi dapat memberikan dampak langsung terhadap profitabilitas sektor perbankan, khususnya melalui jalur struktur keuangan dan leverage modal. Mengingat peran sentral perbankan dalam menjaga stabilitas sistem keuangan dan mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi—terutama dalam konteks lonjakan harga energi global—penelitian ini memberikan implikasi penting bagi pembuat kebijakan, regulator, serta pelaku industri perbankan di negara-negara berkembang.

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This paper investigates the effects of energy price shocks on the performance of 63 major banks in BRICS+Indonesia emerging economies over the period 2004–2023. Using a comprehensive set of empirical techniques—including fixed effects, random effects, panel fully modified least squares (FMOLS), panel dynamic least squares (DOLS), and system generalized method of moments (GMM)—the findings reveal that energy price shocks have a significant positive impact on bank performance when measured by return on equity (ROE), but no significant effect on return on assets (ROA). These results remain robust even after controlling for key macroeconomic and financial variables. This study also incorporates additional variables representing national financial structures—namely, Stock Market Capitalization to GDP, Bank Deposits to GDP, and Domestic Credit to Private Sector as a percentage of GDP. The results show that all three variables significantly affect ROE, while only Bank Deposits to GDP has a significant influence on ROA. These findings suggest that energy price shocks can directly influence banking profitability, particularly through mechanisms tied to financial structure and capital leverage. Given the pivotal role of banks in ensuring financial system stability and supporting economic development—especially amid rising global energy prices—this research provides meaningful insights for policymakers, regulators, and banking sector stakeholders across developing economies."

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