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"This book will demonstrate how the latest developments in molecular tools and in epidemiology can be integrated with studies of host-pathogen interactions. Besides a strong theoretical component, there will also be an emphasis on applications in the fields of epidemiology, public health, veterinary medicine, and health ecology. "

"Now in its third edition, this comprehensive volume is recognized as the most authoritative review of the epidemiology of infectious disease. Divided into five sections that cover methods in infectious disease epidemiology, airborne transmission, diarrheal diseases, blood and body fluid as a reservoir of infectious diseases, vectorborne and parasite disease. This book includes chapters on methodological issues, pathogenesis, and comprehensive reviews of virtually all known infectious diseases. New to the Third Edition: HIV chapter completely updated including results of trials of Male Circumcision, HIV-vaccines, female condoms, Microbicides and new drugs. Influenza chapter updated with new material on H1/N1 and control/prevention of Influenza during a pandemic. Malaria chapter updated with new information on bed nets, prophylactic therapy of pregnant women and other high risk populations as well as new detailed examination of the organization, implementation, and accomplishments of the WHO--Roll-Back Malaria program; and a new description of the 5th Human Malaria parasite--P.knowlesi and its Epidemiology. Hepatitis chapter is revised with new information on HEV virus. New brief chapter discussing the various models of behavioral change that are useful in Infectious Diseases research--e.g. Health Belief model etc. and much more!"

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Tesis ini menyajikan pendekatan model ganda terhadap dinamika penularan dan pengendalian cacar monyet (Mpox), menekankan pengaruh yang berbeda dari permukaan terkontaminasi dan mobilitas manusia. Model pertama, "Kontrol Optimal dan Analisis Stabilitas Dinamika Penularan Cacar Monyet dengan Dampak Permukaan Terkontaminasi," menganalisis dinamika penularan Mpox dengan mempertimbangkan permukaan yang terkontaminasi. Model ini menghitung angka reproduksi dasar (R0) dan mengeksplorasi sifat stabilitas dari kedua keadaan keseimbangan bebas penyakit dan endemik. Sebuah bifurkasi maju teridentifikasi pada R0 = 1, menandai ambang kritis untuk penyebaran penyakit, tanpa bifurkasi mundur yang diamati. Analisis sensitivitas menyoroti parameter kunci, dan model ini direkonstruksi sebagai masalah kontrol optimal. Simulasi numerik menilai dampak langkah-langkah pengendalian, menekankan peran permukaan yang terkontaminasi dan memberikan strategi berbasis bukti untuk mitigasi penyakit.

Model kedua, "Kontrol Optimal Dinamika Penularan Cacar Monyet dengan Pertimbangan Mobilitas Manusia," menggabungkan mobilitas manusia ke dalam kerangka deterministik untuk memodelkan dan mengendalikan penyebaran Mpox. Keseimbangan bebas penyakit dianalisis, dan R0 dihitung. Model ini juga merumuskan masalah kontrol optimal, mengidentifikasi strategi efektif untuk mengendalikan Mpox melalui manajemen mobilitas, perawatan, dan pengendalian hewan. Estimasi parameter dan penyesuaian model memastikan keselarasan dengan data dunia nyata, sementara analisis sensitivitas global menggunakan Koefisien Korelasi Peringkat Parsial (PRCC) dan pengambilan sampel hypercube mengidentifikasi parameter kritis yang mempengaruhi R0. Simulasi numerik dari tujuh skenario kontrol menggambarkan potensi dampaknya terhadap dinamika penyakit.

Dengan mengintegrasikan model-model ini, tesis ini menyediakan kerangka kerja komprehensif untuk memahami dan mengendalikan penularan Mpox. Penelitian ini menyoroti pentingnya permukaan yang terkontaminasi dan mobilitas manusia, menawarkan wawasan praktis dan strategi yang kuat untuk intervensi kesehatan masyarakat guna mengurangi dampak Mpox dan penyakit menular serupa.

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This thesis presents a dual-model approach to the transmission dynamics and control of monkeypox (Mpox), emphasizing the distinct influences of contaminated surfaces and human mobility. The first model, ”Optimal Control and Stability Analysis of Monkeypox Transmission Dynamics with the Impact of Contaminated Surfaces,” analyzes the transmission dynamics of Mpox considering contaminated surfaces. It calculates the basic reproduction number (R0) and explores the stability properties of both disease-free and endemic equilibrium states. A forward bifurcation is identified at R0 = 1, marking a critical threshold for disease spread, with no backward bifurcation observed. Sensitivity analysis highlights key parameters, and the model is reconstructed as an optimal control problem. Numerical simulations assess the impact of control measures, emphasizing the role of contaminated surfaces and providing evidence-based strategies for disease mitigation.

The second model, ”Optimal Control of Monkeypox Transmission Dynamics with Human Mobility Considerations,” incorporates human mobility into the deterministic framework to model and control Mpox spread. The disease-free equilibrium is analyzed, and R0 is computed. This model also formulates an optimal control problem, identifying effective strategies for controlling Mpox through mobility management, treatment, and animal control. Parameter estimation and model fitting ensure alignment with real-world data, while global sensitivity analysis using Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and hypercube sampling identifies critical parameters influencing R0. Numerical simulations of seven control scenarios illustrate their potential impact on disease dynamics.

By integrating these models, the thesis provides a comprehensive framework for understanding and controlling Mpox transmission. The research highlights the significance of both contaminated surfaces and human mobility, offering practical insights and robust strategies for public health interventions to mitigate the impact of Mpox and similar infectious diseases."

"This book is focused on the application of modern statistical methods and models to estimate infectious disease parameters, with software guidance, such as R packages, and with data, and features valuable case studies. It is within this context that the Center for Statistics (CenStat, I-Biostat, Hasselt University) and the Centre for the Evaluation of Vaccination and the Centre for Health Economic Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases (CEV, CHERMID, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp) have collaborated over the past 15 years. This book demonstrates the past and current research activities of these institutes and can be considered to be a milestone in this collaboration."

"Mathematical models can be very helpful to understand the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. This book presents examples of epidemiological models and modeling tools that can assist policymakers to assess and evaluate disease control strategies. Contents: Development and Analysis of Models for Infectious Diseases; Application of Models to Real Disease Data; User-Friendly Modeling Tools for Public Health Policymakers. Readership: Researchers in mathematical biology, mathematical modeling, infectious diseases and complex systems."

"This book is a world geography of emerging diseases from antiquity to the present day. The last four decades of human history have seen the emergence of an unprecedented number of 'new' infectious diseases. This book looks at the epidemiological and geographical conditions which underpin disease emergence."