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"Sejak kekalahan Partai Kuomintang (KMT) dalam Perang Saudara Tiongkok pada 1949, Taiwan dan Tiongkok merupakan dua aktor yang kerap bersaing terkait status politik Pulau Taiwan. Pada masa kontemporer, Tiongkok mendorong Konsensus 1992, yang berisikan prinsip “One China,” untuk mengukuhkan klaimnya atas Taiwan. Akan tetapi, konsensus tersebut dimaknai berbeda oleh masing-masing pemimpin Taiwan yang menyebabkan perbedaan sikap dalam hubungan lintas Selat. Pada masa Tsai Ing-wen, kebijakan luar negeri Taiwan dalam konteks hubungan lintas Selat dengan Tiongkok mengalami perubahan signifikan. Berbeda dengan kebijakan rapprochement pada masa Ma Ying-jeou yang cenderung menghasilkan stabilitas dalam hubungan lintas Selat, Tsai Ing-wen mengambil kebijakan yang cenderung asertif terhadap Tiongkok. Sebagai small states, kebijakan asertif dapat membahayakan Taiwan, terutama menimbang kapabilitas ekonomi dan milliter Tiongkok yang semakin meningkat. Hal ini memunculkan pertanyaan mengenai alasan pergeseran kebijakan lintas Selat Taiwan. Untuk menjawab pertanyaan tersebut, penelitian ini menggunakan teori realisme neoklasik sebagai kerangka analisis. Realisme neoklasik mendorong bahwa faktor domestik memiliki pengaruh sebagai variabel intervensi dalam pengambilan hasil akhir kebijakan luar negeri. Melalui studi kasus komparatif dan studi literatur, penelitian ini menemukan bahwa terdapat perbedaan faktor domestik pada masa Ma Ying-jeou dan Tsai Ing-wen. Faktor domestik yang prominen pada masa Ma Ying-jeou adalah persepsi pemimpin dan konsensus elite. Kedua faktor tersebut saling melengkapi dan berimplikasi pada realisasi kebijakan sesuai dengan kepentingan Ma Ying-jeou. Di sisi lain, pada masa Tsai Ing-wen, faktor domestik yang prominen adalah persepsi pemimpin dan opini publik. Kedua faktor tersebut mendorong kebijakan asertif Tsai Ing-wen melalui tekanan untuk menjaga status quo sekaligus menjaga kedaulatan Taiwan dari ancaman Tiongkok. Melalui hal tersebut, komparasi terhadap dua masa kepemimpinan menunjukkan bahwa kehadiran opini publik dan konsensus elite pada masing-masing masa jabatan mendorong perbedaan kebijakan meskipun stimulus sistemik sama-sama menunjukkan peningkatan power Tiongkok.

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Since the defeat of the Kuomintang (KMT) in the Chinese Civil War in 1949, Taiwan and China have been two actors frequently contesting the political status of Taiwan Island. In the contemporary era, China has promoted the 1992 Consensus, which contains the “One China” principle, to assert its claim over Taiwan. However, this consensus is interpreted differently by each Taiwanese leader, resulting in divergent stances in cross-Strait relations. During Tsai Ing-wen’s administration, Taiwan’s foreign policy in the context of cross-Strait relations with China underwent significant changes. Unlike the rapprochement policy during Ma Ying-jeou’s administration, which tended to foster stability in cross-Strait relations, Tsai Ing-wen adopted a more assertive approach toward China. As a small state, an assertive policy could endanger Taiwan, especially considering China’s growing economic and military capabilities. This situation raises the question of the causes that underlies the shift in Taiwan’s cross-Strait policy. To address this question, this research employs neoclassical realism as the analytical framework. Neoclassical realism posits that domestic factors act as intervening variables influencing the final outcome of foreign policy decisions. Through comparative case studies and literature review, this research finds that different domestic factors were prominent during the administrations of Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen. During Ma Ying-jeou’s tenure, the dominant domestic factors were leader perception and elite consensus. These two factors complemented each other and influenced policy implementation in accordance with Ma Ying-jeou’s interest. In contrast, during Tsai Ing-wen’s administration, the prominent domestic factors were leader perception and public opinion. These factors propelled Tsai Ing-wen’s assertive policy through pressure to maintain the status quo while safeguarding Taiwan’s sovereignty against China’s threats. This comparison between the two leadership periods demonstrates that the presence of public opinion and elite consensus in each administration contributed to the differences in policy, despite similar systemic stimuli indicating China’s increasing power."

"Relations between Taiwan and the People's Republic of China have oscillated between outright hostility and wary detente ever since the Archipelago seceded from the Communist mainland over six decades ago. While the mainland has long coveted the island, Taiwan has resisted - aided by the United States which continues to play a decisive role in cross-strait relations today. In this comprehensive analysis, noted China specialist Steven Goldstein shows that although relations between Taiwan and its larger neighbor have softened, underlying tensions remain unresolved. These embers of conflict could burst into flames at any point, engulfing the whole region and potentially dragging the United States into a dangerous confrontation with the PRC Guiding readers expertly through the historical background to the complexities of this fragile peace, Goldstein discusses the shifting economic, political and security terrain, and examines the pivotal role played by the United States in providing weapons and diplomatic support to Taiwan whilst managing a complex relationship with an increasingly powerful China. Drawing on a wealth of newly declassified material, this compelling and insightful book is an invaluable guide to one of the world's riskiest, long-running conflicts."