Hasil Pencarian  ::  Simpan CSV :: Kembali

"ABSTRAKDalam upaya memperoleh informasi perihal penerapan metode peramalan kuantitatif yang berdasarkan deret waktu terhadap pemakaian obat di instalasi farmasi Klinik IAIN Syarif Hidayatullah, telah dilakukan penelitian dengan cara membandingkan penerapan dari 6 metode peramalan yaitu rata-rata bergerak 3 bulan, rata-rata bergerak 6 bulan, pemulusan eksponensial tunggal, pemulusan eksponensial ganda, regresi linear sederhana dan dekomposisi klasik terhadap 6 sampel obat yang digunakan oleh karyawan IAIN dari tahun 1994-1997. Kriteria yang dipakai untuk membandingkan dan menentukan metode yang paling sesuai adalah nilai kesalahan peramalan, analisis autokorelasi, analisis regresi dan indeks musiman, ditambah kriteria lain yaitu jangka waktu peramalan dan kemudahannya dalam penerapan.Hasil analisis autokorelasi menunjukkan bahwa pemakaian obat oleh karyawan IAIN memiliki pola data diantara pola acak dan pola kecenderungan, sedangkan hasil peramalan dari setiap sampel obat dengan beberapa metode peramalan yang diteliti menunjukkan nilai kesalahan peramalan yang bervariasi untuk setiap metode peramalan. Analisis regresi secara keseluruhan menunjukkan kecilnya pengaruh variabel babas ( waktu ) terhadap perubahan variabel terikat ( pemakaian obat ), sedangkan indeks musiman yang dihitung dengan metode dekomposisi klasik menunjukkan adanya variasi dari setiap sampel.Kesimpulan yang diperoleh setelah beberapa metode peramalan diperbandingkan menunjukkan bahwa metode pemulusan eksponensial ganda merupakan pilihan utama, sedangkan metode rata-rata bergerak 3 bulan merupakan pilihan kedua untuk meramalkan pemakaian obat oleh karyawan IAIN di Klinik IAIN Syarif Hidayatullah. Meskipun lebih baik dari metode naif, metode dekomposisi klasik dengan rasio rata-rata bergerak dan regresi linear sederhana terhadap waktu sebaiknya tidak digunakan karena tidak memenuhi beberapa kriteria yang ditetapkan. Disarankan agar pengelola instalasi farmasi memberi perhatian lebih besar terhadap obat-obat yang perlu diramaikan serta mempersiapkan sarana/ prasarana dan sumber daya manusia yang khusus menangani perencanaan pengadaan obat. Sebelum menerapkan metode pemulusan eksponensial ganda terhadap pemakaian obat oleh seluruh pasien disarankan untuk-mencari kesamaan pola pemakaian obat dan poly penyakit antara karyawan IAIN dan seluruh pasien. Apabila pola-pola tersebut memiliki kesamaan maka metode yang sama dapat diterapkan untuk meramalkan pemakaian obat oleh seluruh pasien di instalasi farmasi Klinik IAIN Syarif Hidayatullah.

---

ABSTRACT

Study is undertaken in clinical pharmacy installation of IAIN Syarif Hidayatullah Clinic that is by comparing 6 of forecasting method application with are 3 months moving average, 6 months moving average, single exponential smoothing, double exponential smoothing, simple linear regression and classic decomposition toward 6 of drug sample used by IAIN staff within period of 1994-1997. The criteria for comparing and defining of the most suitable method are forecasting error value, autocorrelation analysis, regression analysis and seasonal indexes which combined with forecasting time horizon and its' easy of application.

The result of autocorrelation analysis indicate that drug consumption of IAIN staff have data pattern which is applicable between random and non stationer, whereas the result of forecasting method on every drug sample indicate that forecasting error value is variative. The whole regression analysis indicate that independent variable ( time ) has small effect on the movement of dependent variable ( drug consumption ), whereas the seasonal indexes which is calculated using classic decomposition method indicate variative result for every sample.

The conclusion is that double exponential smoothing method is the primary choice method, whereas 3 months moving average method is the second choice to forecast drug consumption of IAIN staff in IAIN Syarif Hidayatullah Clinic. Classic decomposition method with moving average ratio and simple linear regression toward time is not recommended to use for its' unfullfillment to the defined criteria.

It is suggested that management of pharmacy installation provide more attention on the forecasted drug and prepare infrastructure as well as human resources especially to handle planning of drug supply. Before applying double exponential smoothing method for drug consumption for all of the patient, it is suggested to find the similar of pattern of disease and drug consumption between IAIN staff and all of the patient. If these indicate the similar, the method is subsequently applicable. ;Study is undertaken in clinical pharmacy installation of IAIN Syarif Hidayatullah Clinic that is by comparing 6 of forecasting method application with are 3 months moving average, 6 months moving average, single exponential smoothing, double exponential smoothing, simple linear regression and classic decomposition toward 6 of drug sample used by IAIN staff within period of 1994-1997. The criteria for comparing and defining of the most suitable method are forecasting error value, autocorrelation analysis, regression analysis and seasonal indexes which combined with forecasting time horizon and its' easy of application.

The result of autocorrelation analysis indicate that drug consumption of IAIN staff have data pattern which is applicable between random and non stationer, whereas the result of forecasting method on every drug sample indicate that forecasting error value is variative. The whole regression analysis indicate that independent variable ( time ) has small effect on the movement of dependent variable ( drug consumption ), whereas the seasonal indexes which is calculated using classic decomposition method indicate variative result for every sample.

The conclusion is that double exponential smoothing method is the primary choice method, whereas 3 months moving average method is the second choice to forecast drug consumption of IAIN staff in IAIN Syarif Hidayatullah Clinic. Classic decomposition method with moving average ratio and simple linear regression toward time is not recommended to use for its' unfullfillment to the defined criteria.

It is suggested that management of pharmacy installation provide more attention on the forecasted drug and prepare infrastructure as well as human resources especially to handle planning of drug supply. Before applying double exponential smoothing method for drug consumption for all of the patient, it is suggested to find the similar of pattern of disease and drug consumption between IAIN staff and all of the patient. If these indicate the similar, the method is subsequently applicable."

"Telah dirumuskan hubungan antara perubahan tebal material dengan densitas film yang di sebut metode variasi densitas. ...."

"Pada periode 2002 _ 2012, tren angka fertilitas total mengalami stagnasisekitar 2,6. Milenium Development Goals (MDGs) menunjukkan kemajuanyang baik, tetapi masih memerlukan kerja keras untuk mencapai targettahun 2015. Khususnya upaya untuk mencapai target 102 per 100.000 ke-lahiran hidup. Metode keluarga berencana (KB) yang banyak digunakanpasien pascapersalinan saat ini adalah metode kontrasepsi jangka pendekseperti pil dan suntik. Sedang metode kontrasepsi jangka panjang sepertiintra uterine device dan implant cenderung turun satu poin dari tahun 2002hingga 2007. Upaya mengatasi masalah yang sedang dialami masyarakatIndonesia saat ini meningkatkan akseptor KB metode kontrasepsi jangkapanjang (MKJP). Model pengambilan keputusan adalah alat yang di-kembangkan untuk meningkatkan kualitas pelayanan KB di tingkatpelayanan kesehatan primer dan sekunder. Alat tersebut dapat membantumeningkatkan kepuasan pasien, penggunaan jasa konseling, dan pemilihanpenggunaan KB MKJP yang aman dan efektif. Model shared decision ma-king adalah model pengambilan keputusan yang banyak digunakan, ber-manfaat dalam memotivasi pasien memilih perawatan yang tepat dan mem-pertahankan hubungan terapeutik. Diharapkan jumlah akseptor KB MKJPdapat memenuhi target MDGs 2015.Trends in total fertility rate from the year 2002-2012, amounting to 2.6 stag-nated. Targets of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have showngood progress but still needs to work hard to achieve in 2015. MDGs par-ticular purpose, efforts are needed to achieve the 2015 target of 102 per100,000 live births. Family planning method that is widely used today areshort-term contraceptive methods such as pills or injections. Being a long-term contraceptive methods (LTM) such as intra uterine device and implantstend to go down one point from the year 2002 to 2007. Efforts to addressModel Pengambilan Keputusan Meningkatkan AkseptorKeluarga Berencana Metode Kontrasepsi Jangka PanjangDecision Making Model for Increasing Acceptors Family Planning Long-Term Contraception MethodSuryani Manurung483the problems being experienced by the people of Indonesia is currently im-proving family planning acceptors LTM. Decision making model is a tool de-veloped to improve the quality of family planning services at the level of pri-mary and secondary health care. This tool can help increase the patient sa-tisfaction, using counseling services, and the selection use is safe and ef-fective of contraceptive LTM. Model of shared decision making is a decisionmaking model that is widely used, useful in motivating patients choose theproper care and maintain a therapeutic relationship. Expected number offamily planning acceptors LTM can meet MDGs targets by 2015."