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"Reformasi administrasi pemerintah subnasional merupakan hal yang tak dapat ditunda-tunda. Persoalannya adalah bagaimana melakukannya. Bagaimana strateginya. Dengan latar belakang lingkungan lokal, nasional, regional, serta internasional yang tidak menentu. Disertasi ini memakai pendekatan scenario planning dalam membangun strategi reformasi administrasi pemerintah subnasional. Untuk itu dibutuhkan tiga tahapan penelitian yang sekaligus dicerminkan oleh tiga pokok permasalahan. Masing-masing adalah: pertama, bagaimanakah potret administrasi publik pemerintah subnasional di Indonesia saat ini? Kedua, bagaimanakah deskripsi skenario lingkungan administrasi publik (aspek sosial-politik dan ekonomi) pemerintah subnasional pada tahun 2025? Ketiga, bagaimanakah grand strategy reformasi administrasi publik pemerintah subnasional sampai tahun 2025?

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Administrative Reform at the subnational level is very urgent business to be done. The questions are how to implement it and what is the strategy to implement it. With the local, national, regional and international uncertainty this dissertation, using scenario planning, try to develop strategy for administrative reform at the subnational level in indonesia. This has been done through three stages of research which is reflected by three main research problems. First, what are the pictures of the subnational public administration in indonesia now? Second, what are the scenarios of the environment (social aspect, political aspect and economic aspect) of public administration at the subnational level at the year 2025? Third, what is the administrative reform grand strategy of the public administration at the subnational level in Indonesia until the year 2025?"

"Discover a strategic planning method called scenario planning that is used to plan for the future of an organization while embracing uncertainty. A case study of the Royal Dutch/Shell Group illustrates the scenario planning method. And a checklist of trigger questions helps you identify organizational assumptions in the scenario planning process."

"Lingkungan bisnis di Indonesia pasca krisis ekonomi (1998), bersifat sangat dinamis, mudah berubah dan penuh dengan ketidakpastian. Dengan demikian jika kita akan melakukan suatu kegiatan perencanaan, dibutuhkan suatu perangkat anal isis yang mampu mengakomodasi keadaan lingkungan yang sangat dinamis dan penuh ketidakpastian. Scenario Planning merupakan salah satu altematif perangkat analisa yang mampu mengakomodasi perubahan-perubahan keadaan lingkungan yang berubah dengan cepat dan penuh dengan ketidakpastian. Karya akhir ini mencoba merancang suatu marketing strategy pada PT Indopelita Aircraft Services (lAS) dengan menggunakan pendekatan scenario planning. PT lAS merupakan salah satu perusahaan bengkel perawatan pesawat yang cukup besar di Indonesia. Dengan status sebagai anak perusahaan dari BUMN terbesar di Indonesia, PT lAS mempunyai keinginan kuat untuk terus maju dan berkembang . Keinginan ini tidak salah, karena meskipun situasi ekonomi secara keseluruhan sedang lesu, tapi justru dibisnis industri penerbangan terjadi anomaly yang dipicu oleh deregulasi dibidang perizinan maskapai penerbangan baru, sehingga sejak tahun 1999 banyak muncul perusahaan penerbangan baru di Indonesia. Namun demikian, potensi pasar yang terbuka ternyata tidak diimbangi oleh kondisi internal perusahaan. Dari hasil analisis internal perusahaan, ditemukan banyak kelemahan yang seyogyanya dibenahi terlebih dahulu, sehingga pada akhimya perusahaan mempunyai kemampuan untuk menangkap peluang pasar yang masih terbuka. Hal lain yang juga perlu dipertimbangkan oleh PT lAS adalah, meskipun bisnis industry penerbangan saat ini tumbuh dan berkembang pesat, namun perlu pula dipertimbangkan kelangsungan hidup jangka panjangnya karena sifatnya yang anomali dibandingkan dengan kondisi ekonomi nasional. Untuk bisa membuat formulasi strategi dan rancangan marketing strategy yang tepat, penulis mencoba melakukannya dengan pendekatan model scenario planning. Model yang dipakai dalam perancangan skenarionya adalah model yang dikembangkan di Lembaga Management (LM) FEUI pada tahun 200 l. Setelah dilakukan kajian internal dan ekstemal yang komprehensif sebagai bahan input untuk masuk ke model, akhimya diperoleh suatu altematif situasi masa depan yang dinilai paling sesuai untuk PT lAS. Pada situasi ini "Grand Strategy" yang paling sesuai .untuk PT lAS dalam 3 tahun ke depan adalah "Stabilization", sedangkan strategi pemasaran yang disarankan adalah dengan melakukan "Market Development" dan "Market Penetration"."

"The management of communication sector which included government as a regulator and providing the service by operator and also other service provider, aimed to provide communication service which can fulfill intention and requirement of all public community not only in country, but also from and to foreign country.

In sea communication sub-sector, especially in port, the government through the revision from Government Regulation No. 7011996 become Government Regulation No. 6912001 has given the facility to stakeholder to be able to respond the situation that happened in liberalization, competition in globalization, transformation in reformation era and also the implementation of decentralization.

By the implementation of Government Regulation No. 6912001, PT. Pelabuhan Indonesia II, in managing port service in the future should positively done in improving income through good strategic management, because the challenge in the future in facing the competition is more competitive either in the country, for example of Local Government demand in order to make-up of Local Government Income and also competition which tend to ascend with other port in ASEAN, for example Port Of Singapore, Port of Kiang, Bintulu, Tanjung Pelepas, Hochi Minh, etc which have more efficient in operational performance.

In facing the competition which tend to global, it is needed the existence of reliable strategic management matching with existing strategic environment which able to assign value added to company growth, especially in make-up its income. This is the condition which need excellence compete in managing its business.

Therefore, in stimulating how the company could succeed in facing the competition in the future which tend to spread out, it is needed the existence of scenario planning of strategic management for company to know the situation happened in the next time, so that various policy which need to solve the condition could set up early.

This research is aiming to analyze how compilation process of scenario planning of strategic management of PT. Pelabuhan Indonesia II in facing the globalization, to show what factors were become resistor in creating excellence competition of the company in providing the port service, and also to explain what factors which can be developed to to create excellence competition in providing the port service.

The theory in this research, are taken from various literature, Internet websites and interview with all experts concerning the strategic management of PT. Pelabuhan Indonesia II to face the competition globally which analyzed with scenario planning approach.

This research are basically showing and describing all external and internal factors related to scenario planning of company which estimated that it can influence emulation of management of port that happened in the future. The approaches used in this research are qualitative approach, so that it can explain the reality or symptom which happened in business management in the future.

From the result of analysis, it can know that the decision of the strategic management of the company in the future very influenced by the decisions as a key factors for scenario input. Hereinafter, from the result of that analysis found that there are 10 factors which have high impact level and uncertainty of degree, which influence the compilation process of scenario, can divide to four clusters.

The conclusion of this research is there are four scenarios in developing PT. Pelabuhan Indonesia II base on most sensible strategic management in the future. Pursuant to interpretation, hence the scenario ?PT. Pelabuhan Indonesia II Berjaya? is the scenario which is more reliable happened in the future.

So that the scenario planning of strategic management of PT. Pelabuhan Indonesia II in facing the of globalization which have been compiled in this research become better and more objective, it is suggested to be continued with additional research by socialization or consulted with other related parties outside the company."