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"ABSTRAKKrisis Keuangan Asia (AFC) 1997-98 dan Krisis Keuangan Global (GFC) 2008 telah mendorong turbulensi ekonomi dan mata uang negara-negara ASEAN-5. Fenomena ini meningkatkan kerentanan fundamental ekonomi makro dan memicu peneliti untuk membangun Indikator Peringatan Dini (EWI) sebagai alat untuk mencegah terjadinya krisis mata uang. Skripsi ini akan membandingkan 9 perilaku indikator ekonomi makro dari sektor domestik, eksternal, dan kerentanan moneter dan keuangan di negara-negara ASEAN-5 yang meningkatkan kemungkinan krisis mata uang terjadi, menggunakan matriks ERPD dan regresi logit biner pada periode AFC dan GFC. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan variabel sektor eksternal signifikan dalam meningkatkan kemungkinan krisis mata uang terjadi di negara-negara ASEAN-5 selama periode AFC dan GFC. Rasio impor terhadap cadangan devisa adalah indikator yang paling signifikan dan memiliki dampak positif pada kemungkinan terjadinya krisis. Semakin besar impor ke cadangan meningkatkan tekanan nilai tukar dan meningkatkan kemungkinan krisis mata uang terjadi.

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ABSTRACT

Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) 1997-98 and Global Financial Crisis (GFC) 2008 had driven economic and currency turbulence of ASEAN-5 countries. This phenomenon increases vulnerabilities of macroeconomic fundamentals and triggers the researcher to build an Early Warning Indicator (EWI) as a tool to mitigate the occurrence of a crisis. This research will compare 9 macroeconomic indicators behavior from real domestic, external, and monetary and financial vulnerabilities sector in ASEAN-5 countries that increase the possibility of currency crisis using the ERPD matrix and binary logit regression during the AFC and GFC period. The results show the external sector variables are significant in increasing the probability of currency crisis in ASEAN-5 countries during the AFC and GFC period. Import to reserves ratio is the most significant indicator and has a positive impact on the probability of crisis occurrence. The greater import to reserves increasing the exchange rate pressure and increase the probability of currency crisis to occur"

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