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"Kabut asap telah menjadi momok yang sangat merugikan banyak pihak. Kerugian materiil maupun immateriil yang diderita begitu masif dan timbul dalam waktu yang cukup lama. Menariknya belum pernah ada gugatan terhadap kerugian akibat kabut asap di pengadilan Indonesia. Alasannya sederhana, karena kausalitas kabut asap dengan kerugian yang dialami korban sulit dibuktikan apabila merujuk pada ketentuan hukum yang berlaku di Indonesia saat ini, termasuk dengan teori kausalitas yang dianut. Skripsi ini hendak menjawab pertanyaan sederhana, dengan perkembangan teori kausalitas dalam ilmu hukum apakah kerugian akibat kabut asap dapat dibuktikan di pengadilan? Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah penelitian yuridis normatif dengan pendekatan konseptual dan pendekatan perbandingan. Penelitian ini menuai hasil yang cukup positif di mana terdapat doktrin market share liability yang dapat mengakomodir pembuktian kausalitas kabut asap, baik dari segi hukum materiil maupun segi hukum formil di Indonesia. Namun pada akhirnya tetap diperlukan keterbukaan dari hakim untuk membangun logika hukum berdasarkan nilai-nilai kebenaran dan keadilan, yang dalam pandangan penulis dapat diakomodir melalui penerapan doktrin market share liability untuk membuktikan kausalitas terhadap kerugian akibat kabut asap.

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Haze has become very detrimental scourge to many parties. Both material dan immaterial losses suffered are massive and arise in a long period of time. Interestingly, there has never been a lawsuit against haze in Indonesian courts. The reason is simply because proof of causation based on losses suffered by the victim from haze is very difficult to prove if one refer to laws recognized in Indonesia, including the embraced theory of causation. This undergraduate thesis wants to answer a simple question, with the development of theory of causation in jurisprudence, is it possible to prove causation based on losses from haze in courts The research method used in this thesis is a normative juridical research with conceptual approach and comparative approach. This research reaping positive results in which theory of market share liability could accommodate the proof of causation of haze, both in terms of material law and procedural law aspects recognized in Indonesia. In the end it still takes the open minded judge to build legal logic based on the value of justice and fairness, which in my point of view could be accomodated by applying market share liability doctrine as a proof of causation of loss from haze."

"Skripsi ini membahas tentang penerapan asas tanggung jawab negara dalam kasus kerusakan lintas batas dan / atau pencemaran. Penelitian dalam tesis ini merupakan penelitian yuridis normatif dan deskriptif. Pembahasan dalam penelitian ini membahas tentang pengenaan tanggung jawab Nikaragua atas perusakan lingkungan di wilayah teritorial Negara Kosta Rika. Kajian ini juga membahas potensi pemberlakuan asas tanggung jawab negara terhadap bencana kabut asap lintas batas akibat kebakaran hutan dan / atau lahan. Penugasan pertanggungjawaban kepada negara dalam penelitian ini dilakukan dengan mengacu pada Pasal Tanggung Jawab Negara atas Perbuatan Salah Secara Internasional. Juga akan dibahas tentang pengakuan asas tanggung jawab negara dalam konteks kerusakan lintas batas dan / atau pencemaran dalam kerangka hukum internasional dan kerangka hukum nasional serta beberapa kasus kerusakan dan / atau pencemaran lintas batas, seperti kasus trail smelter. , kasus Danau Lanoux, kasus Selat Corfu, dan kasus uji senjata nuklir. Penulis menemukan bahwa akuntabilitas negara lahir dari pengakuan kedaulatan negara yang melarang negara menimbulkan kerusakan dan / atau pencemaran yang melintasi batas wilayah negara. Larangan menimbulkan kerusakan dan / atau pencemaran telah menjadi norma hukum lingkungan internasional setelah dituangkan dalam prinsip 21 Stockholm Declaration dan penggunaan norma ini sebagai dasar penyelesaian sengketa lingkungan lintas batas.This thesis discusses the application of the principle of state responsibility in cases of cross-border damage and / or pollution. The research in this thesis is a normative and descriptive juridical research. The discussion in this study discusses the imposition of Nicaragua's responsibility for environmental destruction in the territory of the State of Costa Rica. This study also discusses the potential for the application of the principle of state responsibility for transboundary haze disasters due to forest and / or land fires. The assignment of accountability to the state in this research is carried out with reference to the Article of State Responsibility for International Wrong Actions. It will also discuss the recognition of the principle of state responsibility in the context of transboundary damage and / or pollution in the international legal framework and national legal framework as well as several cases of cross-border damage and / or pollution, such as the trail smelter case. , the Lake Lanoux case, the Corfu Strait case, and the nuclear weapons test case. The author finds that state accountability is born from the recognition of state sovereignty which prohibits the state from causing damage and / or pollution that crosses national borders. The prohibition of causing damage and / or pollution has become a norm of international environmental law after it has been stated in the principles of the 21 Stockholm Declaration and the use of these norms as a basis for resolving cross-border environmental disputes."

"Skripsi ini membahas tentang respon negara tetangga yang terkena dampak kabut asap akibat kebakaran hutan dan lahan yang terjadi di Indonesia pada tahun 1997-1998. Pada penelitian sebelumnya, banyaknya kasus kebakaran hutan dan lahan yang terjadi pada masa Orde Baru disebabkan oleh pengelolaan hutan yang mengedepankan pembangunan ekonomi. Untuk kebakaran hutan dan lahan yang terjadi pada tahun 1997-1998 hanya dijelaskan mengenai dampak berupa kerugian ekonomi dan ekologis. Sementara dalam penelitian ini, akan berfokus pada dampak kebakaran hutan dan lahan yang terjadi pada tahun 1997-1998 berupa pencemaran kabut asap lintas batas mengganggu aktivitas negara tetangga, yaitu Malaysia dan Singapura. Hasil dari penelitian ini didapat bahwa permasalahan kebakaran hutan dan lahan Indonesia tahun 1997-1998 menjadi satu bencana nasional yang sulit dituntaskan oleh Indonesia sendiri. Singapura dan Malaysia sebagai negara tetangga yang terkena dampak dari kabut asap memberikan respon agar masalah ini dapat ditangani dalam skala regional, sehingga kebakaran hutan dan lahan tahun 1997-1998 menjadi salah satu awal mula kesadaran Asia Tenggara untuk menetapkan regulasi baru atas satu permasalahan pencemaran lingkungan lintas batas, khususnya pada pencemaran udara. Pada penulisan artikel ini, penulis menggunakan metode sejarah. Artikel ini menggunakan data yang diperoleh melalui studi literatur berupa dokumen pemerintah, koran, buku, dan publikasi jurnal.

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This paper discusses the response of neighboring countries affected by haze due to forest and land fires that occurred Indonesia in 1997-1998. In previous studies, the number of cases of forest and land fires that occurred during the New Order was caused by forest management which prioritized economic development. For forest and land fires 1997-1998 only explained the impact of economic and ecological losses. While in this study will focus on the impact of forest and land fires 1997-1998 in the form of cross-border smoke pollution disrupting the activities of neighboring countries, such as Singapore and Malaysia. The results of this study found that the problems of Indonesian forest and land fires in 1997-1998 became a national disaster that was difficult to solve by Indonesia itself. Singapore and Malaysia as neighboring countries affected by the haze responded to this problem in a regional scale, so that forest and land fires in 1997-1998 became one of the beginnings of Southeast Asian awareness to establish new regulations on a cross-environmental pollution problem, especially on air pollution. This article uses historical methods and data obtained through literature studies from newspapers, books, and journal publications. "

"ABSTRAKKebakaran hutan dan lahan merupakan salah satu jenis bencana yang selalu terjadi di Indonesia terutama di Pulau Sumatera dan Kalimantan dalam kurun waktu 18 tahun terakhir. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui hubungan antara variasi iklim, titik panas dan insiden ISPA pada bencana kebakaran hutan dan lahan di Provinsi Jambi, Kalimantan Barat, Kalimantan Selatan, Kalimantan Tengah, Riau dan Sumatera Selatan bulan Juli?November 2015. Penelitian ini merupakan studi korelasi dengan menggunakan data sekunder. Populasi penelitian adalah 81 kabupaten/kota di 6 provinsi terdampak kabut asap, sedangkan sampel adalah 21 kabupaten/kota yang memiliki data variasi iklim, titik panas dan insiden ISPA yang lengkap pada Juli-November 2015. Hasil analisis bivariat dengan regresi linear sederhana menunjukkan bahwa variabel yang berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap insiden kasus ISPA adalah curah hujan (r = -0,294; nilai p = 0,013) dan suhu udara (r = 0,287; nilai p = 0,015). Hasil analisis multivariat dengan regresi linear ganda juga menunjukkan bahwa kedua variabel tersebut memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap insiden kasus ISPA (R2 = 0,143). Model persamaan regresi yang dihasilkan adalah YISPA= -6.338,007 - 181,439X1 (curah hujan) + 432,777X2 (suhu udara). Model regresi yang diperoleh dapat menjelaskan 14,3% variasi insiden ISPA selama bencana.

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ABSTRAKLand and forest fires is one type of disaster is always the case in Indonesia, particularly in Sumatra and Kalimantan within the last 18 years. This study aims to determine the relationship between climate variation, hotspots and incidence of ARI cases on forest fires and land disaster in the Province of Jambi, West Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, Riau and South Sumatra on July to November 2015. This study is a correlation study using secondary data. The population is 81 district/cities in six provinces affected by smog, while the sample is 21 district/cities which have complete data variations in climate, hotspots and incidents ISPA in six provinces affected by smog. The results of the bivariate analysis with simple linear regression showed that the variables which significantly affect the incidence of ARI is rainfall (r = -0.294; p = 0.013) and air temperature (r = 0.287; p = 0.015). The results of multivariate analysis using multiple linear regression showed that both of them significantly affect the incidence of ARI (R2 = 0,143). The resulting regression model is YISPA= -6.338,007 - 181,439X1 (rainfall) + 432,777X2 (air temperature). The regression model obtained can explain 14,3% of the variation ISPA incidents during a disast"

"[;;;, ABSTRAKKebakaran hutan dan lahan (karhutla) di Riau mulai marak seiring denganmeningkatnya laju penebangan hutan, pembersihan lahan dan iklim kering. Karhutlamenyebabkan pencemaran udara bahkan hingga ke Singapura sehinggamempengaruhi ketegangan politik diantara kedua negara. Karhutla kerap terjadi tiaptahunnya, padahal sudah banyak regulasi dan institusi yang menangani pencegahankarhutla serta pengendalian bencana asap. Ketika proses pembakaran biomassaterjadi, pencemar aerosol terlepas ke udara. Tingginya konsentrasi aerosolmenurunkan kualitas udara setempat dan mengurangi jarak pandang. Penelitian inibertujuan untuk menganalisis kaitan karhutla di Provinsi Riau pada Juni 2013 denganpencemaran udara di Riau dan Singapura, karakteristik aerosol di Singapura pada saatperiode karhutla di Riau dan menganalisis implementasi kebijakan pencegahan danpengendalian bencana asap akibat karhutla. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalahcampuran kuantitatif dan kualitatif dengan data sekunder dan primer yang berasaldari wawancara. Berdasarkan penelitian diketahui bahwa kebakaran di Riau pada Juni2013 mengakibatkan kenaikan ISPU hingga 1084 (berbahaya) di Riau, kenaikankonsentrasi PM 2,5, dan menurunkan visibilitas di Singapura. Hasil karakterisasimelalui parameter aerosol optical depth (AOD), parameter Ångstrom, dan distribusiukuran partikel menunjukkan keberadaan aerosol berukuran kecil dengan jumlahlebih banyak di Singapura yang merupakan ciri aerosol dari karhutla.Lemahnya kepemimpinan dan penegakan hukum, kurangnya koordinasi antar institusi di tingkat pemerinrah daerah, dan belum optimalnya pemanfaatan informasi peringatan dini adalah sejumlah faktor penghambat implementasi kebijakan pengendalian bencanaasap akibat karhutla.

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ABSTRACTForest and land fire in Riau increase along with the rapid deforestation, land clearing, and fueled by dry climate. Forest and land fire causes trans-boundary air pollution up to Singapore and creates tensions among neighboring countries. Fires in Riau routinely occur every year, although there are a lot of regulations and institutions dealing with fire prevention and smoke haze management. When biomass burns, certain aerosol pollutant is emitted to the atmosphere. High concentration of aerosol could degrade the local air quality and reduce visibility. This study aimed to analyze the relation of forest and land fire in Riau in June 2013 with the air pollution in Riau and Singapore, the characteristics of aerosol in Singapore during the fire period in Riau and the implementation of fire prevention and smoke haze management policies.Research method that being used are a mixture of quantitative and qualitative with secondary and primary data from interview. The research found that Riau fires in June 2013 resulted the increase of Pollutant Standard Index (PSI) until 1084 (hazardous) in Riau, increase the concentration of PM 2,5, and reduce visibility in Singapore. Aerosol characterization through aerosol optical depth (AOD), Ångstrom parameter and particle size distribution indicates the existence of a small-sized aerosol in a great number in Singapore which is characteristic of aerosol from forest and land fire. Weak leadership and law enforcement, lack of coordination among institutions in local level as well as low utilization of early warning information are a number of factors inhibiting the implementation of smoke haze management policies.]"

"[ABSTRAKKebakaran lahan dan hutan merupakan ancaman terhadap lingkungan hidup.Kebakaran lahan dan hutan dipengaruhi oleh pola penggunaan lahan untukbudidaya. Karakteristik wilayah rawan kebakaran di Kabupaten Pelalawan adalahwilayah yang memiliki kawasan hutan dengan fungsi hutan produksi konversi danhutan produksi terbatas; memiliki tutupan lahan dengan jenis hutan lahan keringsekunder, semak belukar, semak belukar rawa dan tanah terbuka; serta memilikijenis tanah dan sistem lahan berupa endapan aluvial dan tanah mineral perbukitanrendah, serta jenis tanah gambut dengan kedalaman rendah sampai sedang.Kemunculan hotspot sebagai indikator kebakaran lahan dan hutan memilikihubungan dengan pola curah hujan rendah yang terjadi dua kali selama setahun diPelalawan, yaitu antara Januari─Februari dan yang paling ekstrim padaJuli─Agustus. Langkah mitigasi kebakaran yang dilakukan pemerintah belumdiikuti dengan alternatif solusi budidaya tanam tanpa api. Perubahan budidayajenis tanaman semusim ke tanaman keras adalah bentuk adaptasi yang dilakukanmasyarakat. Laju pertumbuhan penduduk berpengaruh nyata terhadap peluangterjadinya kebakaran lahan dan hutan. Tekanan terhadap penguasaan ruangsebagai dampak dari pembangunan mempengaruhi kearifan lokal penggunaan apidalam pengelolaan lahan. Terbatasnya akses terhadap modal perekonomianmenjadi salah satu faktor penghambat trasformasi sosial ekonomi dan budaya daripertanian subsisten menjadi agraris, sehingga penggunaan api masih menjadibagian dari budaya pengelolaan lahan.

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ABSTRACTLand and forest fires threatening the environment. The occuring of fires influenceby land use for cultivation system. Characteristics of fires vulnerable zone inPelalawan district Riau province indicated by the present of forest area withfunction for convertion and limited production; land cover type from secondarydryland forest, scrub, swampy scrub and open area; and alluvial to plain hillymineral soil and land system, and shallow to moderate depth of peat swamp. Thepresent of hotspots as indicator of fires occuring in land or forest area correspondwith the lowest amount of rainfall which happend twice per annum within thestudy area, it is happend between January to February and extremly happend inJuly to August. The mitigation action proposed by government poorly associatewith alternative solution for zero firest cultivation. The shifting from short periodto parennials agriculture commodity was the adaptation effort taken by thecommunity. The growth of population influence the opportunity of fires mayoccur. The present of land tenure management due to development impact hasinfluencing the local wisdom in using fires for land management. The limitedacces to capital of economic being a barrier to the succes of social culturaltransformation from subsisten to agrarian cultivation, thus the use of fires stillbeing part of land development culture.;Land and forest fires threatening the environment. The occuring of fires influenceby land use for cultivation system. Characteristics of fires vulnerable zone inPelalawan district Riau province indicated by the present of forest area withfunction for convertion and limited production; land cover type from secondarydryland forest, scrub, swampy scrub and open area; and alluvial to plain hillymineral soil and land system, and shallow to moderate depth of peat swamp. Thepresent of hotspots as indicator of fires occuring in land or forest area correspondwith the lowest amount of rainfall which happend twice per annum within thestudy area, it is happend between January to February and extremly happend inJuly to August. The mitigation action proposed by government poorly associatewith alternative solution for zero firest cultivation. The shifting from short periodto parennials agriculture commodity was the adaptation effort taken by thecommunity. The growth of population influence the opportunity of fires mayoccur. The present of land tenure management due to development impact hasinfluencing the local wisdom in using fires for land management. The limitedacces to capital of economic being a barrier to the succes of social culturaltransformation from subsisten to agrarian cultivation, thus the use of fires stillbeing part of land development culture.;Land and forest fires threatening the environment. The occuring of fires influenceby land use for cultivation system. Characteristics of fires vulnerable zone inPelalawan district Riau province indicated by the present of forest area withfunction for convertion and limited production; land cover type from secondarydryland forest, scrub, swampy scrub and open area; and alluvial to plain hillymineral soil and land system, and shallow to moderate depth of peat swamp. Thepresent of hotspots as indicator of fires occuring in land or forest area correspondwith the lowest amount of rainfall which happend twice per annum within thestudy area, it is happend between January to February and extremly happend inJuly to August. The mitigation action proposed by government poorly associatewith alternative solution for zero firest cultivation. The shifting from short periodto parennials agriculture commodity was the adaptation effort taken by thecommunity. The growth of population influence the opportunity of fires mayoccur. The present of land tenure management due to development impact hasinfluencing the local wisdom in using fires for land management. The limitedacces to capital of economic being a barrier to the succes of social culturaltransformation from subsisten to agrarian cultivation, thus the use of fires stillbeing part of land development culture.;Land and forest fires threatening the environment. The occuring of fires influenceby land use for cultivation system. Characteristics of fires vulnerable zone inPelalawan district Riau province indicated by the present of forest area withfunction for convertion and limited production; land cover type from secondarydryland forest, scrub, swampy scrub and open area; and alluvial to plain hillymineral soil and land system, and shallow to moderate depth of peat swamp. Thepresent of hotspots as indicator of fires occuring in land or forest area correspondwith the lowest amount of rainfall which happend twice per annum within thestudy area, it is happend between January to February and extremly happend inJuly to August. The mitigation action proposed by government poorly associatewith alternative solution for zero firest cultivation. The shifting from short periodto parennials agriculture commodity was the adaptation effort taken by thecommunity. The growth of population influence the opportunity of fires mayoccur. The present of land tenure management due to development impact hasinfluencing the local wisdom in using fires for land management. The limitedacces to capital of economic being a barrier to the succes of social culturaltransformation from subsisten to agrarian cultivation, thus the use of fires stillbeing part of land development culture.;Land and forest fires threatening the environment. The occuring of fires influenceby land use for cultivation system. Characteristics of fires vulnerable zone inPelalawan district Riau province indicated by the present of forest area withfunction for convertion and limited production; land cover type from secondarydryland forest, scrub, swampy scrub and open area; and alluvial to plain hillymineral soil and land system, and shallow to moderate depth of peat swamp. Thepresent of hotspots as indicator of fires occuring in land or forest area correspondwith the lowest amount of rainfall which happend twice per annum within thestudy area, it is happend between January to February and extremly happend inJuly to August. The mitigation action proposed by government poorly associatewith alternative solution for zero firest cultivation. The shifting from short periodto parennials agriculture commodity was the adaptation effort taken by thecommunity. The growth of population influence the opportunity of fires mayoccur. The present of land tenure management due to development impact hasinfluencing the local wisdom in using fires for land management. The limitedacces to capital of economic being a barrier to the succes of social culturaltransformation from subsisten to agrarian cultivation, thus the use of fires stillbeing part of land development culture.;Land and forest fires threatening the environment. The occuring of fires influenceby land use for cultivation system. Characteristics of fires vulnerable zone inPelalawan district Riau province indicated by the present of forest area withfunction for convertion and limited production; land cover type from secondarydryland forest, scrub, swampy scrub and open area; and alluvial to plain hillymineral soil and land system, and shallow to moderate depth of peat swamp. Thepresent of hotspots as indicator of fires occuring in land or forest area correspondwith the lowest amount of rainfall which happend twice per annum within thestudy area, it is happend between January to February and extremly happend inJuly to August. The mitigation action proposed by government poorly associatewith alternative solution for zero firest cultivation. The shifting from short periodto parennials agriculture commodity was the adaptation effort taken by thecommunity. The growth of population influence the opportunity of fires mayoccur. The present of land tenure management due to development impact hasinfluencing the local wisdom in using fires for land management. The limitedacces to capital of economic being a barrier to the succes of social culturaltransformation from subsisten to agrarian cultivation, thus the use of fires stillbeing part of land development culture.;Land and forest fires threatening the environment. The occuring of fires influenceby land use for cultivation system. Characteristics of fires vulnerable zone inPelalawan district Riau province indicated by the present of forest area withfunction for convertion and limited production; land cover type from secondarydryland forest, scrub, swampy scrub and open area; and alluvial to plain hillymineral soil and land system, and shallow to moderate depth of peat swamp. Thepresent of hotspots as indicator of fires occuring in land or forest area correspondwith the lowest amount of rainfall which happend twice per annum within thestudy area, it is happend between January to February and extremly happend inJuly to August. The mitigation action proposed by government poorly associatewith alternative solution for zero firest cultivation. The shifting from short periodto parennials agriculture commodity was the adaptation effort taken by thecommunity. The growth of population influence the opportunity of fires mayoccur. The present of land tenure management due to development impact hasinfluencing the local wisdom in using fires for land management. The limitedacces to capital of economic being a barrier to the succes of social culturaltransformation from subsisten to agrarian cultivation, thus the use of fires stillbeing part of land development culture., Land and forest fires threatening the environment. The occuring of fires influenceby land use for cultivation system. Characteristics of fires vulnerable zone inPelalawan district Riau province indicated by the present of forest area withfunction for convertion and limited production; land cover type from secondarydryland forest, scrub, swampy scrub and open area; and alluvial to plain hillymineral soil and land system, and shallow to moderate depth of peat swamp. Thepresent of hotspots as indicator of fires occuring in land or forest area correspondwith the lowest amount of rainfall which happend twice per annum within thestudy area, it is happend between January to February and extremly happend inJuly to August. The mitigation action proposed by government poorly associatewith alternative solution for zero firest cultivation. The shifting from short periodto parennials agriculture commodity was the adaptation effort taken by thecommunity. The growth of population influence the opportunity of fires mayoccur. The present of land tenure management due to development impact hasinfluencing the local wisdom in using fires for land management. The limitedacces to capital of economic being a barrier to the succes of social culturaltransformation from subsisten to agrarian cultivation, thus the use of fires stillbeing part of land development culture.]"

"Peristiwa kebakaran hutan dan lahan (karhutla) merupakan salah satu bencana yang terjadi secara berulang di Indonesia, khususnya saat musim kemarau. Peristiwa ini tentunya menimbulkan banyak kerugian baik secara ekonomi, ekologi, maupun sosial. Oleh karena itu, perlu dilakukan prakiraan di wilayah yang berpotensi mengalami karhutla. Salah satu provinsi yang rawan mengalami karhutla adalah Provinsi Sumatera Selatan. Peristiwa karhutla dapat dipantau oleh satelit yang diindikasikan sebagai titik panas. Penelitian ini menggunakan data hotspot (titik panas) dengan parameter tanggal, tingkat kepercayaan, dan kabupaten-kabupaten di Sumatera Selatan yang tertangkap satelit pada periode tahun 2015-2019. Prediksi potensi karhutla dilakukan di wilayah kabupaten dengan jumlah titik panas tertinggi yaitu Kabupaten Ogan Komering Ilir, Kabupaten Musi Banyuasin, dan Kabupaten Banyuasin. Untuk mencapai tujuan penelitian, penelitian ini menggunakan Prophet Forecasting Model (PFM) yang didasarkan pada model aditif dengan memperhatikan tiga komponen utama yaitu trend, seasonality, dan holiday effects. PFM merupakan metode yang menggunakan pendekatan machine learning dalam melakukan prediksi terhadap deret waktu dimana permasalahan forecasting dilihat sebagai curve-fitting exercise. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa PFM dapat diimplementasikan pada data titik panas dengan penilaian forecast accuracy termasuk dalam kategori baik di Kabupaten Ogan Komering Ilir dengan nilai MAPE 0,1753; kategori layak di Kabupaten Musi Banyuasin dengan nilai MAPE 0,2588; dan kategori baik di Kabupaten Banyuasin dengan nilai MAPE 0,1833.

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Forest and land fires are one of the recurring disasters in Indonesia, especially during the dry season. This incident certainly caused many losses economically, ecologically, and socially. Therefore, it is necessary to make predictions in high potential areas for forest and land fires to occur. One province that is prone to forest and land fires is South Sumatra Province. Forest and land fires events can be monitored by satellites which are indicated as hotspots. This research uses hotspot data with parameters of date, level of confidence, and regencies in South Sumatra that are caught by satellites in the period 2015-2019. The prediction of the potential for forest and land fires was carried out in districts with the highest number of hotspots, namely Ogan Komering Ilir Regency, Musi Banyuasin Regency, and Banyuasin Regency. To achieve the research objectives, this study uses the Prophet Forecasting Model (PFM) which is based on additive model by taking into account three main components, namely trend, seasonality, and holiday effects. PFM is a method that uses a machine learning approach to predict time series where forecasting problems are seen as curve-fitting exercises. The results show that PFM can be implemented in hotspot data with forecast accuracy in the good category for Ogan Komering Ilir Regency with MAPE value of 0.1753; reasonable category in Musi Banyuasin Regency with MAPE value of 0.2588; and good category in Banyuasin Regency with MAPE value of 0.1833."

"Kebakaran hutan dan/atau lahan di Indonesia telah terjadi sejakabad 19. Kasus kebakaran yang paling signifikan terjadi padatahun 1982, 1997-1998, dan 2006. Kebakaran hutan inimenghasilkan asap dalam jumlah yang sangat banyak dan dirasakanjuga oleh masyarakat di Malaysia dan Singapura. Adapunpencemaran oleh asap ini dapat dikatakan sebagai pencemaranudara lintas batas karena dihasilkan di wilayah Indonesia dandampaknya dapat dirasakan sampai ke Malaysia dan Singapura.Penyebab dari kebakaran hutan dan/atau lahan yang menghasilkanpencemaran asap lintas batas ini adalah terutama karena konversihutan dan/atau lahan menjadi lahan perkebunan. Cara konversihutan dan/atau lahan yang paling mudah dan murah adalah denganmembakar hutan. Namun, melihat bahwa perusahaan perkebunanmerupakan penyebab utama kebakaran hutan, pemerintah Indonesia,khususnya pemerintah daerah masih saja memberikan konsesi lahan.Hal ini diperparah dengan tidak adanya mekanisme kontrol dansanksi yang tegas bagi para pelanggar. Upaya pemerintah dalammenanggulangi masalah ini lebih dititikberatkan padapenanggulangan kebakaran hutan, bukan pada upaya pencegahan.Padahal dalam hukum internasional, suatu negara memilikikewajiban pada masyarakat internasional untuk menjaga wilayahnyadan memastikan bahwa aktivitas dalam wilayahnya tidak mengganggunegara lain. Sayangnya, sampai saat ini, Indonesia masih belumdapat mengatasi masalah kebakaran hutan dan pencemaran udaralintas batas. Masalah ini terus berulang setiap tahunnya danmerugikan tidak hanya Indonesia, namun juga negara tetangga,Malaysia, dan Singapura. Padahal, atas kegagalan ini, Indonesiadapat dimintai pertanggungjawaban melalui forum internasional."

"One of the environmental changes caused by forest fire is air pollution by PM 10. Its impacts to the human health can be direct ill (acute diseases), chronic diseases and death. The other impacts are the restricted activity days and the work loss days. The aim of tleis study is obtaining information on the increase of health cases and economical loss of those health impacts of forest and land fire in Riau that happened in September November 1997. This study's design is cross sectional, using secondary data from Bapedal, Haze Distribution and Index-TOMS - NASA-Administrative Boundaries and Population-Center Statistic Bureau, BPS, Departemen kesehatan, Departemen Keuangan, Depnaker, and many other institutions.The health cases were estimated by dose - response calculation of the ambieut concentration of the PM 10 on the increase of asthma attack, bronchitis attack on children, ART, death, hospitalized respiratory disease and clinic visits (including medicine cost), and the productive time loss. The estimation of economical loss was obtained by economical calculation due to the amount of the estimated health cases (medical treatment cost) and the estimated productive time loss (because of premature death, restricted activity days and work loss days). The estimations were calculated in five areas (Bengkalis, Indragiri Hilir, Indragiri Hulu and Pekanbaru) exposed by haze index in level fourth and fifth. The result shows that the minimal increase of health cases are 15.984 asthma attacks cases, 15.305 bronchitis attack on children cases, 75.606 ARI cases, 30 death cases, 3.815 hospitalized respiratory disease cases, and 8.838 respiratory disease clinic visit cases, 2.176.385 restricted activity days and 1.119.063 work loss days. The economical loss in lowest estimation is Rp. 23.455.416.625,- and in highest estimation is Rp. 91.558.663.585;It is concluded that the great loss of this haze damage caused by the increase of FM 10 concentration far from the standard and manifested as a great number of health cases. This estimation is only for low loss, do not consider the impacts of the other pollutants and the long term health impacts in the consideration yet. Furthermore, it is necessary developing prolonged studies with more comprehensive method to get more accurate calculation.

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Salah satu perubahan lingkungan yang merupakan akibat dari kebakaran hutan dan lahan adalah pencemaran udara oleh partikel yang berdampak bagi kesehatan manusia .Kasus kesehatan yang timbul dapat berupa sakit langsung, sakit keras maupun kematian. Dampak yang lain adalah timbulnya keterbatasan aktivitas harian dan hari kerja yang hilang. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memperoleh gambaran mengenai dampak kesehatan yang timbul karena bencana kabut asap akibat kebakaran hutan dan lahan di Propinsi Riau yang terjadi pada bulan September-November 1997 dan kerugian ekonomi dari dampak kesehatan tersebut. Rancangan penelitiannya potong lintang dan data yang dipergunakan adalah data sekunder yang diperoleh dari berbagai pihak, antara lain Bapedal, Haze Distribution and Index-TOMS-NASA-Administrative Boundaries and Population-Center Statistic Bureau, BPS, Departemen Kesehatan, Departemen Keuangan, Depnaker, dan institusi yang lain.Estimasi kasus dan dampak kesehatan didapat dari perhitungan dosis-respon peningkatan kadar PM 10 di udara ambien terhadap peningkatan serangan asma, serangan bronkitis pada anak, dan LSPA, peningkatan kematian, peningkatan penyakit saluran pernafasan yang dirawat di rumah sakit, peningkatan kunjungan rawat jalan penyakit saluran pernafasan, kehilangan hari kerja dan keterbatasan aktivitas harian. Estimasi kerugian ekonomi dari dampak kesehatan yang diestimasi diperoleh dari perhitungan ekonomi akibat peningkatan jumlah kasus kesehatan yang diperkirakan terjadi yang berupa peningkatan biaya yang dikeluarkan untuk pengobatan, ditambah dengan kerugian karena hilangnya waktu produktif (hari kerja, keterbatasan aktivitas harian dan kematian sebelum mencapai usia harapan hidup).Hasil estimasi menunjukkan sekurang-kurangnya timbul peningkatan serangan asma sebanyak 15.984 kasus, serangan bronkitis pada anak 15.305 kasus, ISPA 75.606 kasus, kematian 30 kasus, penyakit saluran pernafasan yang dirawat di rumah sakit 3.815 kasus, kunjungan rawat jalan penyakit saluran pernafasan 8.838 kasus, kehilangan 1.1.19.063 hari kerja dan keterbatasan aktivitas harian sebanyak 2.176.385 hari. Estimasi dilakukan di lima daerah tingkat II (Bengkalis, Indragiri Hilir, Indragiri Hulu, Kampar dan Pekanbaru) yang terpapar kabut asap pada tingkat haze index 4 dan 5 menurut data dari Haze Distribution and Index-TOMS-NASA-Administrative Boundaries and Population-Center Statistic Bureau. Hasil estimasi kerugian ekonomi terbesar di kelima daerah tingkat II tersebut adalah sebesar Rp. 91.558.663.585,- dan estimasi terendah adalah Rp. 23.455.416.625.Disimpulkan bahwa kerugian yang sangat besar dari kejadian kebakaran hutan dan lahan di Propinsi Riau ini merupakan akibat meningkatnya kadar PM 10 jauh diatas baku mutu yang berlaku sehingga menyebabkan peningkatan kasus kesehatan yang besar pula. Estimasi kerugian ini adalah estimasi rendah, belum memperhitungkan dampak dari polutan yang lain dan dampak kesehatan jangka panjang. Selanjutnya perlu dilakukan penelitian lanjut untuk mendapatkan metode yang lebih komprehensif agar diperoleh hasil perhitungan kerugian yang lebih akurat."