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"ABSTRAKStudi ini menganalisis perilaku soft balancing Tiongkok yang berbeda di Timur Tengah, khususnya pada krisis Libya dan Suriah dalam membatasi pengaruh Amerika Serikat (AS). Studi ini menggunakan teori Realisme Neoklasik yang dapat memberikan penjelasan kebijakan luar negeri atau strategi suatu negara dalam suatu isu. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian kualitatif dengan menggunakan metode kongruensi dengan pengambilan data melalui studi kepustakaan. Analisis tersebut memberikan hasil bahwa perbedaan perilaku soft balancing Tiongkok dalam menghadapi AS disebabkan oleh faktor domestik yang berbeda dalam melihat krisis Libya dan Suriah. Faktor domestik penentu kebijakan luar negeri suatu negara oleh Schweller menyebutkan terdapat lima variabel yaitu elite consensus, government atau regime vulnerability, social cohesion, dan elite cohesion. Analisis di dalam tesis ini menyebutkan terdapat perbedaan variabel yang muncul di krisis Libya dan Suriah di dalam domestik Tiongkok sendiri. Akibatnya, Tiongkok menunjukan perilaku soft balancing yang berbeda di dalam krisis Libya dan Suriah dalam membatasi pengaruh AS.

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ABSTRACTThis study analyzes the different Chinas soft balancing behaviors in the Middle East, particularly in the Libyan and Syrian crises in limiting the influence of the United States (US). This study uses the theory of Neoclassical Realism which can provide an explanation of a countrys foreign policy or strategy on an issue. This research is a qualitative study using a congruence method with data collection through a literature study. The analysis gives the result that differences in Chinas soft balancing behavior in dealing with the US are caused by different domestic factors in seeing the Libyan and Syrian crisis. Domestic factors determining a countrys foreign policy by Schweller said there are five variables, namely elite consensus, government or regime vulnerability, social cohesion, and elite cohesion. The analysis in this thesis states that there are differences in the variables that appear in the Libyan and Syrian crises within China itself. As a result, China exhibits different soft balancing behaviors in the Libyan and Syrian crises in limiting US influence."

"Tiongkok merupakan negara yang tertutup dan cenderung agresif dalam menjalankan hubungan luar negerinya. Selama tiga dekade terakhir, pertumbuhan kapabilitas Tiongkok secara besar-besaran menimbulkan kecurigaan bagi negara-negara lainnya di kawasan, tidak terkecuali ASEAN. Memasuki akhir tahun 1990an, Tiongkok kemudian mengubah pendekatannya dengan menerapkan konsep keamanan baru dalam menjalin kerjasama dengan ASEAN. Dengan menggunakan metode kualitatif, penelitian ini bertujuan memahami alasan Tiongkok dengan menerapkan konsep keamanan baru dan berusaha mengetahui keterkaitan konsep keamanan baru Tiongkok dengan kondisi soft power Tiongkok di ASEAN. Untuk memahami kedua hal tersebut, tulisan ini menggunakan konsep reassurance dan soft power sebagai kerangka berpikir. Konsep reassurance yang merupakan cara yang dilakukan negara untuk meyakinkan negara lain terhadap intensi baik yang dimilikinya. Dalam penerapannya, strategi ini ternyata dapat memiliki peran dalam peningkatan soft power suatu negara. Berdasarkan asumsi di atas, akan dianalisis alasan Tiongkok menerapkan konsep keamanan baru sebagai strategi reassurance dan dampaknya terhadap soft power Tiongkok di ASEAN.

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Before the late 1990s, China’s overtly aggressive actions in the South China Sea and its unwillingness to engage the region on a multilateral basis led to mistrust and fear on ASEAN. Moreover, China’s overwhelming development in economy and defense has strengthens the rise of “China threat” perception. Since the late 1990s, however, China’s policy toward ASEAN has shifted from one based on coercive behavior to regional institutions and accommodating approach based on active participation in ASEAN-based fora and a willingness to undertake actions that give the appearance of embracing ASEAN diplomatic norms. China promotes the implementation of its New Security Concept in any cooperation with ASEAN to gain trust and legitimacy. To provide the analysis, this writing takes reassurance and soft power theory as analytical framework. Reassurance is a strategy aim to reassure others about their benign intentions. Apparently, the application of this strategy could bring significant effect on the rise of soft power. By using qualitative method, this writing intent to understand why China implements the New Security Concept and observe its relevance with China’s Soft power in ASEAN."

"ABSTRAKRuntuhnya tembok Berlin pada tahun 1989 menjadikan simbol perubahan sistem politik dunia. Kebebasan masyarakat sipil atas keinginan perubahan politik yang besar mendorong kekuatan gerakan masyarakat menjadi sangat kuat. Peristiwa yang terjadi pada tahun 1989 tersebut kemudian menjadi inspirasi bagi masyarakat di negara bekas imperium Sovyet untuk melakukan hal yang sama yakni ingin adanya perubahan drastis secara demokratis serta perbaikan ekonomi. Revolusi warna yang terjadi sejak abad ke 20 hingga saat ini di negara Eropa merupakan dampak dari keruntuhan Uni Soviet pada tahun 1991. Pasca runtuhnya negara Sovyet tersebut kebangkitan masyarakat sipil di negara-negara satelitnya seperti Yugoslavia, Georgia, dan lain sebagainya semakin menguat dan membawa dampak yang signifikan bagi perubahan politik di negara-negara tersebut.Penelitian ini menggunakan penelitian kualitatif dengan metode historis kritis. Sumber penulisan yang akan diperoleh melalui data primer, yaitu media massa online, pernyataan resmi Pemerintah yang didapat melalui konferensi press dan wawancara mengenai revolusi warna yang terjadi pada tahun 1900 hingga saat ini, serta dokumen resmi Pemerintah negaranegara tersebut mengenai revolusi warna. Data sekunder yang digunakan berasal dari jurnal dan penelitian yang sudah dilakukan sebelumnya.Dalam akhir penelitian ini akan ditemukan bahwa faktor sejarah dan prestise, serta keberadaan eksistensi suatu negara yang kuat dapat mempengaruhi sebuah keberhasilan revolusi terjadi dalam suatu negara.

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ABSTRACT

The collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989 made a symbol of change in the world political system. The freedom of civil society on the desire of great political change in society movements pushing force becomes very strong. The events that occurred in 1989 that later became the inspiration for the people in the former Soviet empire to do the same thing that is wanted to the drastic changes in a democratic and economic improvements. Color revolutions that have occurred since the 20th century to the present in European countries is the impact of the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. After the collapse of the Soviet state revival of civil society in satellite countries like Yugoslavia, Georgia, and others became stronger and impact Significant for political changes in these countries.

This study used a qualitative research with the historical-critical method. The sources of which will be obtained through the primary data, namely online mass media, government official statement obtained through press conferences and interviews about the color revolutions that occurred in 1900 to the present, as well as the official document of the Government of these countries regarding the color revolutions. Secondary data used comes from journals and research that has been done before.

In the end of this study will be found that the factors of history and prestige, as well as the existence of the existence of a strong state can affect a successful revolution going on in a country."

"The May 19-20, 2011 Asan conference provided a venue to reassess foreign policy decision-making in China. Bringing together leading voices in this reassessment, the meeting elicited lively exchanges centered not on refuting rival interpretations but on jointly exploring leads that clarify the processes of China's foreign policy formulation that have yet to be adequately explained. Updating the conference papers to cover the end of 2011, this book reflects the state of analysis on the eve of the important 2012-13 transition to China's fifth-generation leaders. The Asan Institute for Policy Studies is an independent think tank located in Seoul, South Korea, that provides innovative policy solutions and spearheads public discourse on many of the core issues that Korea, East Asia, and the global community face. The goal of the institute is not only to offer policy solutions but also to train experts in public diplomacy and related fields in order to strengthen Korea's capacity to better tackle some of the most pressing problems affecting the country, the region and the world today"

"Penelitian ini merekonstruksi Sistem Komunikasi Krisis dan Risiko Kebencanaan di Media Sosial dalam Pengurangan Risiko Bencana Tsunami Vulkanik di Indonesia. Riset difokuskan pada kasus Tsunami Selat Sunda pada tahun 2018 yang menelan 426 korban jiwa. Tragedi ini disebabkan oleh lemahnya situational awareness akibat ketidaksinkronan kebijakan peringatan dini tsunami vulkanik antar lembaga, lemahnya crisis response masyarakat di media sosial, dan rumor yang berkembang akibat kesenjangan digital masyarakat terdampak bencana. Metode penyelesaian masalah menggunakan Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) Multi Method, dengan penggunaan Social Network Analysis pada SSM tahap ke dua untuk memperkaya Rich Picture dan Textual Network Analysis pada SSM tahap ke lima untuk mempertajam perbandingan model konseptual dengan dunia nyata. Survei dengan instrumen berplatform Open Data Kit dilakukan tehadap 100 penduduk desa yang terkena dampak langsung atau tidak langsung tsunami menghasilkan visualisasi crisis sensing network selama bencana dari perspektif publik. Wawancara mendalam dengan 22 orang yang mewakili 15 pemangku kepentingan nasional dan lokal utama menghasilkan crisis sensing network dari perspektif pemerintah. Riset ini merekomendasikan beberapa hal. Pertama, rekomendasi secara akademis, yaitu mengintroduksi collective intelligence sebagai pengembangan dari Social Mediated Crisis Communication dengan kolaborasi pengelolaan media sosial antar lembaga dan partisipasi masyarakat dalam komunikasi risiko dan krisis khususnya peringatan dini bencana. Kedua, kontribusi secara metodologis yaitu elaborasi varian baru SSM multi method yang memperkaya penerapan SSM dalam riset berbasis digital. Ketiga, rekomendasi secara praktis/ sosial; mengusulkan amandemen UU kebencanaan No.24/2007 dengan menambahkan tsunami non-tektonik (vulkanik) ke dalam tipe krisis/bencana tsunami; dan mempertegas peran institusi TNI dan Polri dalam komunikasi risiko dan krisis.

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This study reconstructs the Crisis Communication System on Social Media for Disaster Risk Reduction of Volcanic Tsunami Disaster in Indonesia. Research is focused on the case of the Sunda Strait Tsunami in 2018 which claimed 426 lives. This tragedy was caused by weak situational awareness due to the out-of-synchronization of volcanic tsunami early warning policies between institutions, the weak crisis response of the community on social media, and rumors that developed due to the digital divide of the community affected by the disaster. The problem solving method uses the Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) Multi Method, with the use of Social Network Analysis in the second stage of SSM to enrich the Rich Picture and Textual Network Analysis in the fifth stage of SSM to sharpen the comparison of conceptual models with the real world. The survey using the Open Data Kit platform instrument was conducted on 100 villagers who were directly or indirectly affected by the tsunami, resulting in a visualization of the crisis sensing network during the disaster from a public perspective. In-depth interviews with 22 people representing 15 key national and local stakeholders produced a crisis sensing network from a government perspective. This research recommends several things. First, academic recommendations, namely introducing collective intelligence as a development of Social Mediated Crisis Communication with collaborative social media management between institutions and community participation in crisis communication, especially disaster early warning. Second, the methodological contribution, namely the elaboration of a new multi-method SSM variant which enriches the application of SSM in digital-based research. Third, practical/social recommendations; proposed an amendment to the Law on Disasters No.24/2007 by adding a non-tectonic (volcanic) tsunami to the type of tsunami crisis/disaster; and reinforce the role of TNI and Polri institutions in crisis communication.

Keywords: Social Media, Crisis Communication, Volcanic Tsunami, SSM Multi-Method, Social Network Analysis (SNA), Textual Network Analysis (TNA)"

"Mangkunagaran is a Javanese traditional rule that was established in 1757 under the leadership of Raden Mas Said, who styled Mangkunagara I. In development, Praja mangkunagara have experiencrd progress and glory under the leadership of Mangkunagara IV (1853 - 1881)...."

"Pada tahun kedelapan konflik, Suriah menjadi salah satu aktor regional di Timur Tengah yang memegang peran penting bagi Amerika Serikat (AS). Keberadaan Devide et Impera dalam diskursus strategis merupakan satu hal menarik untuk dikaji dalam konflik ini sebagai upaya AS mencapai kepentingannya. Tesis ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis latar belakang dan langkah-langkah yang diambil oleh AS dalam menerapkan strategi Devide et Impera di Suriah. Penelitian kualitatif ini menggunakan metode studi kepustakaan dengan pendekatan analitis deskriptif. Dalam pengumpulan data, penulis menggunakan metode yang digagas oleh Robert K. Yin dan Michael Huberman. Elaborasi teori Devide et Impera dan teori Hegemoni serta konsep pengaruh digunakan untuk menjawab pertanyaan penelitian yang dikemukakan. Kepentingan AS yang anti-otoritanisme termanifestasi dalam agenda demokratisasinya serta menghilangkan pengaruh Iran yang merupakan rivalnya di kawasan dan kepentingan anti-terorisme terwujud dalam perang melawan ISIS dan afiliasinya serta pembentukan koalisi kontraterorisme. Kompleksitas konfigurasi konflik di Suriah mendorong AS untuk mengamankan eksistensi Israel dengan menerapkan strategi Devide et Impera. Melalui penelitian ini, penulis menemukan bahwa keikutsertaan AS dalam konflik di Suriah dengan mendukung pasukan oposisi yang moderat dan pro nilai Barat seperti pasukan Kurdi, khususnya Syrian Democratic Force (SDF) serta Partiya Yekitiya Demokrat (PYD) dan Free Syrian Army (FSA) dan melawan pasukan pro-rezim dan kelompok salafi-jihadis, seperti ISIS, Al Qaeda dan Hay'at Tahrir al Syam menunjukkan pola Devide et Impera yang dilakukan oleh AS dalam konflik di Suriah untuk mencapai kepentingan-kepentingan tersebut.

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In the eighth year of the conflict, Syria has become one of the regional actors in the Middle East that has important role for the United States (US). The existence of Devide et Impera in strategic discourse is an interesting matter to be examined in this conflict as the effort of US to attain its interests. This thesis aims to analyze the background and actions taken by the US in implementing Devide et Impera strategy in Syria. This qualitative research used the method of library research with descriptive analytical approach. In terms of data collecting, the author used the method formulated by Robert K. Yin and Michael Huberman.

The elaboration of theory of Devide et Impera and Hegemony as well as the concept of influence were used to answer the decided research questions. The first US interest of anti-authoritarianism is manifested in its democratization agenda and eradicating the influence of Iran as its rival in the region. The second US interest of anti-terrorism is manifested in the war against ISIS and its affiliates, and established counterterrorism coalition. The complexity of the configuration of conflict in Syria pushed the US to secure the existence of Israel by implementing the strategy of Devide et Impera.

From this research, the author found that the participation of US in this conflict in Syria is by supporting the moderate opposition forces and pro-Western values, such as Syrian Democratice Force (SDF), Partiya Yekitiya Demokrat (PYD) and Free Syrian Army (FSA) and fought against pro-regime forces and the Salafi-Jihadist groups, like ISIS, Al Qaeda and Hay'at Tahrir al Syam (HTS) shows the pattern of Devide et Impera strategy in the conflict in Syria in order to achieve its aforementioned interests."