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"ABSTRAKPenelitian mengenai IPO underpricing telah banyak dilakukan oleh peneliti tetapi belum menjadi kesimpulan yang sama mengenai faktor-faktor apa saja yang mempengaruhi terjadinya IPO underpricing. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis underpricing yang diproksikan oleh initial return dan market adjusted abnormal return dan pengaruh variabel firm age, issue size, listed board, lag period, investor sentiment, IPO volume, hot and cold issue period, market volatility, offer risk, offer price, privatization, dan industry effect terhadap underpricing. Sampel penelitian terdiri dari 229 perusahaan yang melakukan penawaran umum perdana di Bursa Efek Indonesia pada periode 2009-2018. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode analisis stepwise multiple regression. Hasil penelitian ini menemukan hubungan yang signifikan antara ukuran penawaran, volume IPO, risiko penawaran, usia perusahaan, jeda waktu, papan pencatatan, volatilitas pasar, dan hot market dengan underpricing. Penelitian ini juga menemukan hubungan yang tidak signifikan antara harga penawaran, sentimen investor, privatisasi, dan jenis industri dengan underpricing. Secara rata-rata IPO di Indonesia mengalami underpriced sebesar 29.83%, underpricing lebih umum terjadi di pasar saham Indonesia. Investor dapat memanfaatkan kondisi ini untuk mendapatkan capital gain dan perusahaan yang berniat go public perlu mengantisipasi terjadinya underpricing.

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ABSTRACT

Research on IPO underpricing has been done by many researchers but it has not been the same conclusion regarding what factors influence the occurrence of underpricing IPO. This study aims to analyze the underpricing proxied by initial returns and market adjusted abnormal returns and the influence of firm age, issue size, listed boards, lag periods, investor sentiment, IPO volumes, hot and cold issue periods, market volatility, offer risk, offer price, privatization, and industry effect on underpricing. The research sample consisted of 229 companies which made an initial public offering on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the period 2009-2018. This study uses a stepwise multiple regression analysis method. The results of this study found a significant relationship between issue size, IPO volume, offer risk, firm age, time lag, listed board, market volatility, and hot market with underpricing. This study also found an insignificant relationship between offer price, investor sentiment, privatization, and industry effect with underpricing. On average, IPOs in Indonesia experience an underpriced of 29.83%, underpricing is more common in the Indonesian stock market. Investors can take advantage of this condition to get capital gains and companies that intend to go public need to anticipate underpricing."

"[ABSTRAK

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat profil risk dan return dari portofolio investasi dan memilih alternatif portofolio investasi yang paling efisien dan optimal berdasarkan rate of return dan expected return dikarenakan masih rendahnya minat investor kepada sukuk khususnya dilihat dari perbedaan risk dan return antara sukuk dan obligasi yang berpotensi mempengaruhi pemilihan investasi surat berharga oleh investor. Penelitian ini menggunakan financial modelling dengan teori risk dan return untuk menghitung kurva efficient portfolio frontier. Hasil penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa risk dan return antara obligasi pemerintah dan sukuk negara baik dianalisa secara individual maupun gabungan dua instrumen memperlihatkan bahwa kinerja sukuk negara lebih optimal dibandingkan obligasi pemerintah berdasarkan expected return dan variance dari masing-masing instrumen investasi. Berdasarkan analisa dari efficient portfolio frontier diketahui bahwa portofolio yang paling efisien dan optimal adalah surat berharga syariah negara IFR0001 dan IFR0003 yang memiliki return dan risiko yang lebih tinggi dari obligasi pemerintah FR0027 dan FR0030 sesuai dengan prinsip syariah yaitu Al Ghunmu bi Al Ghumi atau high risk, high return di mana keuntungan yang didapatkan selalui disertai dengan risiko dan dengan tingkat return yang lebih tinggi maka sukuk negara seharusnya dapat menarik minat investor untuk memasuki pasar modal syariah khususnya berinvestasi pada sukuk.

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ABSTRACT

This research aims to look at the risk and return profile of investment portfolio and choose an alternative investment portfolio that have the most efficient and optimum based on actual rate of return and expected return because the Investors who want to invest in sukuk are lower than government bonds investment especially from the difference of risk and return between government sukuk and government bond that could potentially affect the selection of investment securities by investors. The data in this study is secondary data obtained from the Bloomberg data i.e. 5 series SBSN period 2010-2014. This study uses financial modelling with the theory of risk and return to create the curve of the efficient portfolio frontier. The results of this study concluded that the risk and return between government bonds and government sukuk with individually or combined analyzed show that the performance of the Government sukuk is more optimal than sukuk bonds based on expected return and variance of each instrument investments. Based on an analysis of the efficient portfolio frontier shown that the most efficient and optimal portofolio are Government sukuk IFR0001 and IFR0003 which have a higher return and risk compare to government bonds FR0027 and FR0030, in accordance with Sharia principles ”Al Ghunmu bi Al Ghumi” or high risk, high return where the profit obtained was accompanied by risks and the rate of return that is higher than government sukuk, it should be able to pursue investor to invest in the Islamic capital market particularly investing in sukuk., This research aims to look at the risk and return profile of investment portfolio and choose an alternative investment portfolio that have the most efficient and optimum based on actual rate of return and expected return because the Investors who want to invest in sukuk are lower than government bonds investment especially from the difference of risk and return between government sukuk and government bond that could potentially affect the selection of investment securities by investors. The data in this study is secondary data obtained from the Bloomberg data i.e. 5 series SBSN period 2010-2014. This study uses financial modelling with the theory of risk and return to create the curve of the efficient portfolio frontier. The results of this study concluded that the risk and return between government bonds and government sukuk with individually or combined analyzed show that the performance of the Government sukuk is more optimal than sukuk bonds based on expected return and variance of each instrument investments. Based on an analysis of the efficient portfolio frontier shown that the most efficient and optimal portofolio are Government sukuk IFR0001 and IFR0003 which have a higher return and risk compare to government bonds FR0027 and FR0030, in accordance with Sharia principles ”Al Ghunmu bi Al Ghumi” or high risk, high return where the profit obtained was accompanied by risks and the rate of return that is higher than government sukuk, it should be able to pursue investor to invest in the Islamic capital market particularly investing in sukuk.]"

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh bulan Ramadhan sebagai salah satu momentum keagamaan terhadap risiko, tingkat pengembalian, likuiditas, dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan IHSG di Bursa Efek Indonesia periode 2013-2017. Likuiditas dalam penelitian ini diukur dengan menggunakan Roll rsquo;s Measure, risiko dan tingkat pengembalian diukur menggunakan Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity GARCH , dan IHSG diukur menggunakan angka indeks sederhana atau simple agregative method berdasarkan perubahan harga setiap harinya. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa Ramadhan tidak memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap variabel-variabel penelitian di Bursa Efek Indonesia yang berarti bahwa bulan Ramadhan tidak berpengaruh terhadap pasar saham di Indonesia.

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This research aims to analyze the influence of Ramadan as one of religious momentum in terms of risk, rate of return, liquidity, and composite stock price index CSPI in Indonesia stock exchange in the period of 2013 2017. The liquidity in this study is measured with Roll rsquo s Measure, while the risk and rate of return are measured using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity GARCH , and the CSPI is measured using simple index number or simple aggregative method based on the daily price change. The result of this research designates that Ramadan does not have any significant influence on the research variables in Indonesia Stock Exchange which indicates that Ramadan does not affect the stock market in Indonesia."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji hubungan trade-off antara manajemen laba riil dengan manajemen laba akrual pada perusahaan manufaktur di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan sampel suspect firms (perusahaan yang diduga melakukan manajemen laba) sebanyak 262 observasi. Dalam penelitian ini, diuji hubungan trade-off dengan menggunakan analisis biaya-biaya terkait dengan aktifitas tersebut, antara lain ketatnya pengawasan auditor, fleksibilitas akuntansi, status market leader, kesehatan keuangan perusahanan, kepemilikan institusional dan kepemilikan keluarga. Selain biaya-biaya tersebut, hubungan trade-off juga dianalisis dengan mempertimbangkan adanya perbedaan waktu pelaksanaan manajemen laba riil dan akrual. Hasil penelitian ini memberikan bukti empiris bahwa di Indonesia, manajemen laba riil dan manajemen laba akrual tidak memiliki hubungan trade-off baik dengan mempertimbangkan biaya-biayanya ataupun perbedaan waktu pelaksanaannya.

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The main purpose of this research is to analyze whether there is trade-off between accrual-based and real earnings management in manufacturing firms in Indonesia . This research use suspect firms (firms who are suspected to engage in earnings management) as research sample with total observations 262 firm-years. In this research, trade-off between accrual and real earnings management is analyzed by costs related to both activities, which are scrutiny by auditor, flexibility within accounting system, market leader status, financial health, institutional ownership, and family ownership. Besides that, this research also analyzes the trade-off based on time difference when the two methods of earnings management are engaged. The result of this study is there is no trade-off between real earnings management and accrual earnings management in Indonesia, based on related costs and time difference. "

"Dengan menggunakan data longitudinal skala besar, yakni Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) tahun 2007, studi ini ingin melihat apakah urutan kelahiran dan jarak antar kelahiran memiliki pengaruh terhadap performa intelijen saudara tua kandung yang berusia 7-14 tahun di Indonesia. Hasil regresi OLS menyebutkan bahwa urutan kelahiran memiliki hubungan yang berbanding terbalik dengan performa intelektual anak. Namun, efek tersebut akan menghilang dan menjadi tidak signifikan ketika terdapat jarak kelahiran yang lebar antar anak. Selain itu, kedua faktor ―turunan‖ tersebut akan menjadi percuma apabila tidak ada proses perkembangan kognitif di dalam suatu keluarga. Hasil studi ini mendorong adanya himbauan jarak yang cukup lebar antar kehamilan demi kemampuan intelijen anak yang lebih baik.

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By utilizing the large-scale outgoing longitudinal data, namely Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) year 2007, this study attempts to find whether birth order and birth spacing affects the older sibling?s intelligence outcome aged 7-14 years old. The OLS results suggest that birth order is adversely affect the child?s intellectual performance. However, such effect becomes negligible and insignificant when there is a longer birth gap between children. In addition, those cognitive-endowment-related factors will be gratuitous if there is no cognitive development process at home. From the perspective of family planning program, our findings propose a need for policy design that persuade longer inter-pregnancy gap for the sake of intelligence outcome."

"Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) adalah penyakit yang muncul di akhir tahun 2019. Namun, hingga saat ini belum ada terapi spesifik untuk penanganan Covid-19 sehingga digunakan beragam obat dalam terapinya. Kondisi ini membuat sebagian besar pasien Covid-19 tergolong dalam pasien polifarmasi sehingga dapat meningkatkan risiko interaksi obat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis potensi interaksi obat pada pasien Covid-19 di Rumah Sakit Universitas Indonesia periode Agustus sampai Desember 2020. Penelitian ini menggunakan desain studi cross-sectional. Pengambilan data dilakukan dengan teknik consecutive sampling. Instrumen yang digunakan untuk analisis interaksi obat adalah Lexi-Interact®. Dari 107 pasien Covid-19 yang digunakan sebagai sampel penelitian, antibiotik dan antivirus yang banyak diberikan adalah azitromisin (61,68%) dan oseltamivir (63,55%). Jumlah resep yang ditemukan dari 107 pasien berjumlah 322 resep dengan 98,1% termasuk dalam resep polifarmasi. Kejadian potensi interaksi obat pada pasien Covid-19 ditemukan berjumlah 304 interaksi obat, dengan 24,01% kategori B (tidak perlu tindakan apa pun), 54,61% kategori C (pantau terapi), 16,45% kategori D (pertimbangkan modifikasi terapi), dan 4,93% kategori X (hindari kombinasi). Potensi interaksi obat terbanyak yang ditemukan pada kategori D adalah interaksi antara azitromisin dengan domperidon (14 kasus), sedangkan pada kategori X adalah interaksi antara sukralfat dengan vitamin D3 (14 kasus). Analisis korelasi Spearman’s rho menunjukkan korelasi antara komorbid, jumlah obat per resep, dan lama rawat inap dengan potensi interaksi obat (p < 0,05). Kesimpulan dari penelitian ini adalah terdapat berbagai potensi interaksi obat yang terjadi pada pasien Covid-19 di Rumah Sakit Universitas Indonesia sehingga diperlukan modifikasi terapi, pengaturan waktu pemberian obat, perubahan rute pemberian obat, penyesuaian dosis, dan pemantauan efek yang mungkin muncul akibat interaksi obat.

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Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is an infectious disease that emerged at the end of 2019. There is currently no specific treatment for Covid-19, so various drugs have been used for treatment. It makes the majority of Covid-19 patients classified as polypharmacy and increased risk of drug interactions. The primary aim of this study is to analyze the potential of drug interaction in Covid-19 patients at Universitas Indonesia Hospital for period August to December 2020. This study used a cross-sectional study design. The data was collected with consecutive sampling technique. Lexi-Interact® was used to investigate potential drug interactions. A total of 107 Covid-19 patients were included in the study, the most frequently antibiotic and antiviral used are azithromycin (61.68%) and (63.55%). A total of 322 prescriptions were found, among them 98.1% were polypharmacy. The potential drug interactions in Covid-19 patients were found 304 drug interactions, around 24.01% belonged to risk category B (no action needed), 54.61% belonged to risk category C (monitor therapy), 16.45% belonged to risk category D (consider therapy modification), and 4.93% belonged to risk category X (avoid combination). The highest frequency of potential drug interactions in category D was the interactions between azithromycin and domperidone (14 cases), while in category X was the interaction between sucralfate and vitamin D3 (14 cases). Spearman’s rho correlation analysis showed that comorbidity, number of drugs per prescription used by patient, and length of stay were correlated with the potential for drug interactions (p < 0.05). The conclusion of this study is various potential drug interactions Covid-19 inpatients at the University of Indonesia Hospital were found, so therapy modification, timing of drug administration, change the route of drug administration, dosage adjustment, and monitoring potential negative effects are needed."

"Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) adalah penyakit yang muncul di akhir tahun 2019. Namun, hingga saat ini belum ada terapi spesifik untuk penanganan Covid-19 sehingga digunakan beragam obat dalam terapinya. Kondisi ini membuat sebagian besar pasien Covid-19 tergolong dalam pasien polifarmasi sehingga dapat meningkatkan risiko interaksi obat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis potensi interaksi obat pada pasien Covid-19 di Rumah Sakit Universitas Indonesia periode Agustus sampai Desember 2020. Penelitian ini menggunakan desain studi cross-sectional. Pengambilan data dilakukan dengan teknik consecutive sampling. Instrumen yang digunakan untuk analisis interaksi obat adalah Lexi-Interact®. Dari 107 pasien Covid-19 yang digunakan sebagai sampel penelitian, antibiotik dan antivirus yang banyak diberikan adalah azitromisin (61,68%) dan oseltamivir (63,55%). Jumlah resep yang ditemukan dari 107 pasien berjumlah 322 resep dengan 98,1% termasuk dalam resep polifarmasi. Kejadian potensi interaksi obat pada pasien Covid-19 ditemukan berjumlah 304 interaksi obat, dengan 24,01% kategori B (tidak perlu tindakan apa pun), 54,61% kategori C (pantau terapi), 16,45% kategori D (pertimbangkan modifikasi terapi), dan 4,93% kategori X (hindari kombinasi). Potensi interaksi obat terbanyak yang ditemukan pada kategori D adalah interaksi antara azitromisin dengan domperidon (14 kasus), sedangkan pada kategori X adalah interaksi antara sukralfat dengan vitamin D3 (14 kasus). Analisis korelasi Spearman’s rho menunjukkan korelasi antara komorbid, jumlah obat per resep, dan lama rawat inap dengan potensi interaksi obat (p < 0,05). Kesimpulan dari penelitian ini adalah terdapat berbagai potensi interaksi obat yang terjadi pada pasien Covid-19 di Rumah Sakit Universitas Indonesia sehingga diperlukan modifikasi terapi, pengaturan waktu pemberian obat, perubahan rute pemberian obat, penyesuaian dosis, dan pemantauan efek yang mungkin muncul akibat interaksi obat.

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Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is an infectious disease that emerged at the end of 2019. There is currently no specific treatment for Covid-19, so various drugs have been used for treatment. It makes the majority of Covid-19 patients classified as polypharmacy and increased risk of drug interactions. The primary aim of this study is to analyze the potential of drug interaction in Covid-19 patients at Universitas Indonesia Hospital for period August to December 2020. This study used a cross-sectional study design. The data was collected with consecutive sampling technique. Lexi-Interact® was used to investigate potential drug interactions. A total of 107 Covid-19 patients were included in the study, the most frequently antibiotic and antiviral used are azithromycin (61.68%) and (63.55%). A total of 322 prescriptions were found, among them 98.1% were polypharmacy. The potential drug interactions in Covid-19 patients were found 304 drug interactions, around 24.01% belonged to risk category B (no action needed), 54.61% belonged to risk category C (monitor therapy), 16.45% belonged to risk category D (consider therapy modification), and 4.93% belonged to risk category X (avoid combination). The highest frequency of potential drug interactions in category D was the interactions between azithromycin and domperidone (14 cases), while in category X was the interaction between sucralfate and vitamin D3 (14 cases). Spearman’s rho correlation analysis showed that comorbidity, number of drugs per prescription used by patient, and length of stay were correlated with the potential for drug interactions (p < 0.05). The conclusion of this study is various potential drug interactions Covid-19 inpatients at the University of Indonesia Hospital were found, so therapy modification, timing of drug administration, change the route of drug administration, dosage adjustment, and monitoring potential negative effects are needed."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji variabel yang mempengaruhi Capital Flight di Indonesia dan mengkaji hubungan kausalitas serta dampak Capital Flight terhadap variabel makroekonomi Indonesia. Hasil analisis Ordinary Least Square (OLS) menunjukkan bahwa variabel Lagged CFRatio, nilai tukar efektif riil, hutang luar negeri pemerintah, tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi, peringkat kredit (rating) Indonesia dan kondisi ketidakstabilan ekonomi maupun sosial politik, signifikan secara statistik mampu menjelaskan perubahan Capital Flight Indonesia.Analisis VAR/VECM termasuk hasil estimasi IRF menggunakan data perekonomian Indonesia (1996:1 ? 2009:1) menunjukkan bahwa umumnya terdapat hubungan satu arah dari Capital Flight terhadap variabel makroekonomi Indonesia yang diteliti. Hasil penelitian ini didukung pula oleh analisis variance decomposition yang menunjukkan bahwa proporsi terpenting dan terbesar yang mempengaruhi keragaman (variasi) pada variabel Capital Flight adalah shock variabel Capital Flight itu sendiri (berkontribusi sebesar 63,47%-91,3%), diikuti variabel SBI (4,63%-15,9%), REER (2,51%-12,3%) dan Growth (1,13%-8,68%).Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa fenomena Capital Flight di Indonesia dalam jangka panjang ternyata direspon atau berdampak terhadap perekonomian Indonesia dan variabel non ekonomi seperti rating serta kondisi ketidakstabilan ekonomi dan sosial politik secara empiris terbukti berpengaruh terhadap pelarian modal di Indonesia. Untuk itu, pengendalian aliran modal di Indonesia yang dapat berdampak negatif terhadap perekonomian dalam negeri perlu dilakukan melalui penerapan kebijakan yang efektif dari institusi terkait.

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This study aims to identify the determinants of Capital Flight in Indonesia and its impact on the economy. Applying Ordinary Least Square (OLS) analysis, Capital Flight in Indonesia is influenced by Lagged CFRatio, real effective exchange rate (REER), foreign debt, economic growth, sovereign rating, and political/economic instability condition.Using a VAR/VECM analysis on quarterly Indonesia economic data during period of 1996.1 ? 2009.1., we find that there is Granger Casuality one-way relationship from Capital Flight to almost all macroeconomic variables used in this study. The result of impulse response function analysis also supports these findings.The result of variance decomposition shows that Capital Flight contributes 63.47%-91.3% on the variable itself and other variable contribute less percentage on Capital Flight fluctuation (SBI 4,63%-15,9%, REER 2,51%-12,31% and Growth 1,13%-8,68%). These findings assert that Capital Flight seems to have more influence on Indonesia economy than the economic fluctuation affecting the flow of capital from Indonesia. Also, non macroeconomic factor such as sovereign rating and instability economic, social and political condition have ability to explain capital flight phenomenon happened in Indonesia. Therefore, controlling the flow of capital in Indonesia, especially capital flow which could adversely affect the economy, must be done through effective implementation of policies from the government."

"Tesis ini membahas pengaruh dari empat indeks saham (variabel bebas), yaitu: DJIA(Amerika), DAX (Jerman), NKY (Jepang) dan FSSTI (Singapore) terhadap JCI (Indonesia) sebagai variabel terikat. DJIA mewakili Indeks saham global sementara DAX, NKY dan FSSTI mewakili indeks saham regional. Hipotesa: Pengaruh ke-4 variabel bebas tersebut terhadap JCI diperkirakan signifikan pada periode krisis subprime mortgage di AS dan krisis surat utang di UE. Analisis ini menggunakan metodologi uji korelasi, uji regresi OLS dan uji kausalitas Granger. Hasil yang diperoleh ternyata dalam kedua periode pengujian, hanya DJIA dan FSSTI yang berpengaruh signifkan terhadap JCI.

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This thesis analyzes the influence of the four stock indices (independent variables): DJIA (USA), DAX (Germany), NKY (Japan) and FSSTI (Singapore) to JCI (Indonesia) as the dependent variable. The DJIA represents global stock index while DAX, NKY and FSSTI represent regional stock indices. Hypothesis: All of independent variable would influence the independent variables significantly in the period of the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the USA and debt crisis in the EU. This analysis uses correlation test methodology: OLS regression test and Granger causality test. The results show that only DJIA and FSSTI influence JCI significantly on both period tests."

"Penelitian ini menguji faktor risiko dan return yang mempengaruhi arus modal asing ke pasar Surat Berharga Negara dengan menggunakan data pasar keuangan yang dikategorikan sebagai "push factor" yaitu yield UST Notes tenor 10 tahun dan CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) serta "pull factor" yaitu yield SUN 10 tahun dan Credit Default Swap Indonesia (CDS). Vector Error Correction Model dengan analisis impuls respon dan varian dekomposisi menyelidiki efek dinamis jangka pendek dari shock /pada faktor risiko dan return terhadap aliran dana asing di pasar SBN. Estimasi model dengan data harian untuk periode 2005-2012 mendukung hipotesis bahwa guncangan yang terjadi pada yield obligasi pemerintah dan CDS adalah kekuatan yang paling penting dalam menjelaskan variasi dalam aliran dana asing di paar SBN. Temuan lain yang menarik adalah peran yield UST Notes tenor 10 tahun dan index VIX sangat mempengaruhi perilaku investor asing di pasar SBN. Dari hasil penelitian diharapkan pengambil kebijakan dapat mendesain kebijakan yang dapat menjamin stabilitas dan ketahanan pasar keuangan terhadap gejolak pasar global.

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This study examines the determinants of capital flows into Indonesia Government Bond Market from the market driven "push-pull" factors approach which reflect the global and country risk and return. An empirically tractable Vector Error Correction Model of the determinants of capital flows is developed, and variance decomposition and impulse response analyses are used to investigate the temporal dynamic effects of shocks to push and pull factors on debt portfolio flows.

Estimation of the model using daily data for the period 2005-2012 provides evidence supporting the hypothesis that shocks to yield government bond that represent domestic expected return and CDS that represent domestic risk are the most important forces explaining the variations in debt portfolio flows to Indonesia. Another interesting finding is the role of risk and return factors from global market as denoted by index VIX and US Treasury Bills in affecting the debt portfolio flows.

These findings highlight the concomitant need for policy makers in Indonesia to design domestic policy in a broad and comprehensive policy mix, consist of more prudence in maintaining macroeconomic stability and robust financial system to absorb both external and internal shocks to real variables of economic activity"