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"Weak policy measures and improper monitoring of the flows and consumption of short-term external funds during the boom period (especially in early and mid 1990's) had been substantial in contributing to the country's currency and economic crisis in mid 1997. Private capital outflows in the form of capital flight had aggravated the intensity of the recent economic crisis as it drained the capital out at the time when it was most needed. Capital flight is estimated using an indirect measure (originally used by World bank, 1985) which involves a residual of some other variables. Accordingly, capital flight is calculated as the identified acquisitions of external assets except official reserves, plus recorded errors and ornissions. An econometric analysis was conducted to determine factors affecting capital flight from Indonesia. Using Augmented DickeyFuller and Phillip-Perron tests of unit root, it was found that ail variables except FDI, uncertainty and interest rate differentials are nonstationary. The Johansen's approach was used to test co-integration in multivariate system that involved long run and short run estimations. The results show that exchange rate depreciation, increase in external debt, GDP, FDI and inflation are important determ~inants of capital flight from Indonesia. Policy measures to prevent future capital flight problem should incorporate the impact and interdependence of various macroeconomic variables. Balanced policy measures based on both fiscal and monetary policies are important in order to maintain or strengthen the confidence of the public. It is important to carefully monitor the flows and consumption of external funds especially during the time of prosperity."

"ABSTRAKPerdebatan tentang bail out untuk menyelamatkan bank kembali muncul sejak krisis keuangan global 2007-2008. Amerika mengeluarkan dana talangan lebih dari 475 miliar dolar, terbesar dalam sejarah. Beberapa pihak menganggap talangan itu berhasil dan beberapa dianggap gagal dan tidak konstitusional karena mereka menyediakan dana perpajakan ke sektor swasta. Di Indonesia hal serupa muncul setelah keluarnya bail out untuk bank Century sampai akhirnya protokol krisis Indonesia tidak lagi menggunakan jaminan sehingga pembaharuan rezim harus diperiksa kembali apakah layak atau tidak. Peneliti menggunakan pengujian sensitivitas dinamis dan metode CoVaR untuk melihat dampak sistemik dan persyaratan modal jika terjadi skenario buruk dalam perekonomian. Peneliti hanya menghitung aset LPS sebagai penjamin karena mayoritas pemegang saham modal dan kontribusi industri perbankan yang menjadi sumber daya dalam mekanisme bail in sulit diukur dengan andal. Dengan demikian peneliti menemukan bahwa dengan skenario optimis, LPS sendiri masih dapat menangani skenario base case dan skenario adverse. Namun tidak lagi bisa menangani saat skenario bergeser menjadi severely adverse atau skenario dengan kondisi krisis 1998.

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ABSTRAKIndonesia has been implementing the no bail out mechanism as part of its protocol to rescue bank problem mainly for systemically important bank. It is utterly important to perform a simulation test to check the feasibility of this newly implemented policy. This research uses dynamic stress testing and CoVaR methods to see the systemic impact and capital requirements in the event of an economic downturn and normal condition. The guarantee proxy is limited to Indonesian Deposit Insurance Corporation LPS asset only due to lack of majority shareholder capital and bank contribution in bail in mechanism data availability . The result shows that with under the optimistic scenario, LPS asset is sufficient to cover the cost of bank rescue. However, under the pessimistic scenario, the cost is beyond LPS capability. Hence no bail out mechanism can only be working properly under normal condition but not in severely adverse condition. "

"ABSTRACTThe belief that resource abundance equates to energy security is roundly debunked in Indonesian geothermal. Indonesia copious geothermal reserves remain untapped. Experts cite the usual culprits: unreliable long term contracts, ambivalent government support, and lukewarm investors investment appetite. In this paper, we argue that the real constraints lie in investors unresolved contradictions: Quick to complain about government unreliable and shifting stance, investors look to the same counter party to guarantee their iron clad power purchase agreements (PPAs) to secure their returns. To unleash Indonesia geothermal potential, we propose adopting slim hole drilling technologies to reduce costs, while facilitating sequential commitments. This could enhance strategic flexibility that lowers the costs of good failures while facilitating the adoption of resource insurance to de risk geothermal exploration and drilling. To sustain these benefits, cheap energy policy needs to be phased out to allow a restructured PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) to flourish by embracing commercially viable strategic approaches."

"Sebagai negara berkembang yang minim modal, Indonesia sangat membutuhkan aliran modal asing untuk menjaga momentum pertumbuhan. Akan tetapi, aliran dana asing tidak hanya membawa manfaat, namun juga membawa guncangan negatif seperti krisis. Untuk menjaga dan menstabilkan pengaruh negatif tersebut, pemerintah menggunakan berbagai cara, salah satunya adalah dengan Capital Flow Management Measures (CFMs). Penelitian ini mencoba melihat apakah CFMs berhasil memengaruhi aliran modal asing atau malah memperlambat pertumbuhan ekonomi. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian time series dengan menggunakan data dari tahun 1995 – 2017. Dengan menggunakan strategi Vectorautoregression (VAR) dan Impulse Response Function (IRF), ditemukan bahwa CFMs outflow berhasil memengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi, walau hanya dalam jangka pendek. Selanjutnya, CFMs outflow juga berhasil memengaruhi komponen utang obligasi dalam jangka pendek - panjang. Dengan pertumbuhan utang obligasi yang cukup tinggi, CFMs outflow berhasil menjadi buffer dalam menjaga stabilitas ekonomi.

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As a developing country that lacks capital, Indonesia urgently needs a flow of foreign capital to maintain growth momentum. However, the flow of foreign funds not only brings benefits, but also brings negative shocks such as crisis. To maintain and stabilize these negative influences, the government uses various methods, one of which is with Capital Flow Management Measures (CFMs). This research tries to see whether CFMs have succeeded in influencing the flow of foreign capital or slowing economic growth. This research is a time series study using data from 1995 - 2017. By using the Vectorautoregression (VAR) and Impulse Response Function (IRF) strategy, it was found that CFMs outflow succeeded in influencing economic growth, even if only in the short term. Furthermore, outflow CFMs have also succeeded in affecting the bond debt component in the short - long term. With a relatively high bond debt growth, CFMs outflow managed to become a buffer in maintaining economic stability."

"Put in simple terms, a 'bubble' refers to financial assets (like stock or land) whose price grows out of proportion from its 'fundamental value'. Once the bubble bursts, the economy could Jail into reccession, and in the worst case scenario turns into an economic financial crisis. While most ASEAN economic suffered instantly from the burst of the crisis in 1997, mature economics, such as Singapore, japan and the US, only buffered minor ittifnuts at the tune Now, htwwer, concerns arc being raised as tltew mature en'itomic-. h\- time expciicna'd i:orti>itjt?raltle I'coiiotnu. slowdowns, mo*t notably in jiipan and Singapore, bat also to n lesser extent rn the US- ft iV plfiusihlt1 that bi:ihlc probh'in^ could reappear as tut a re cri±e> in the^c economies, ///is t-^stnf attempts to understand the anatomy of such bubbles and deta mine whether Sifigaf"