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"Put in simple terms, a 'bubble' refers to financial assets (like stock or land) whose price grows out of proportion from its 'fundamental value'. Once the bubble bursts, the economy could Jail into reccession, and in the worst case scenario turns into an economic financial crisis. While most ASEAN economic suffered instantly from the burst of the crisis in 1997, mature economics, such as Singapore, japan and the US, only buffered minor ittifnuts at the tune Now, htwwer, concerns arc being raised as tltew mature en'itomic-. h\- time expciicna'd i:orti>itjt?raltle I'coiiotnu. slowdowns, mo*t notably in jiipan and Singapore, bat also to n lesser extent rn the US- ft iV plfiusihlt1 that bi:ihlc probh'in^ could reappear as tut a re cri±e> in the^c economies, ///is t-^stnf attempts to understand the anatomy of such bubbles and deta mine whether Sifigaf"

"Weak policy measures and improper monitoring of the flows and consumption of short-term external funds during the boom period (especially in early and mid 1990's) had been substantial in contributing to the country's currency and economic crisis in mid 1997. Private capital outflows in the form of capital flight had aggravated the intensity of the recent economic crisis as it drained the capital out at the time when it was most needed. Capital flight is estimated using an indirect measure (originally used by World bank, 1985) which involves a residual of some other variables. Accordingly, capital flight is calculated as the identified acquisitions of external assets except official reserves, plus recorded errors and ornissions. An econometric analysis was conducted to determine factors affecting capital flight from Indonesia. Using Augmented DickeyFuller and Phillip-Perron tests of unit root, it was found that ail variables except FDI, uncertainty and interest rate differentials are nonstationary. The Johansen's approach was used to test co-integration in multivariate system that involved long run and short run estimations. The results show that exchange rate depreciation, increase in external debt, GDP, FDI and inflation are important determ~inants of capital flight from Indonesia. Policy measures to prevent future capital flight problem should incorporate the impact and interdependence of various macroeconomic variables. Balanced policy measures based on both fiscal and monetary policies are important in order to maintain or strengthen the confidence of the public. It is important to carefully monitor the flows and consumption of external funds especially during the time of prosperity."

"Highlights the areas where things consistently go wrong listing common mistakes that can usually be avoided. Many of these mistakes may appear obvious but are consistently made and are at the heart of many disputes such as those concerning 'negligence' and 'breach of contract claims' against architects. "

"It is often said that the only true source of sustained competitive advantage is people. But what does that mean and how can this be measured and managed? How many organizations know whether their human capital outperforms their competitors?, or even whether it improves year-over-year? And what is the strategy for continually improving that performance?"

"ABSTRAKPerdebatan tentang bail out untuk menyelamatkan bank kembali muncul sejak krisis keuangan global 2007-2008. Amerika mengeluarkan dana talangan lebih dari 475 miliar dolar, terbesar dalam sejarah. Beberapa pihak menganggap talangan itu berhasil dan beberapa dianggap gagal dan tidak konstitusional karena mereka menyediakan dana perpajakan ke sektor swasta. Di Indonesia hal serupa muncul setelah keluarnya bail out untuk bank Century sampai akhirnya protokol krisis Indonesia tidak lagi menggunakan jaminan sehingga pembaharuan rezim harus diperiksa kembali apakah layak atau tidak. Peneliti menggunakan pengujian sensitivitas dinamis dan metode CoVaR untuk melihat dampak sistemik dan persyaratan modal jika terjadi skenario buruk dalam perekonomian. Peneliti hanya menghitung aset LPS sebagai penjamin karena mayoritas pemegang saham modal dan kontribusi industri perbankan yang menjadi sumber daya dalam mekanisme bail in sulit diukur dengan andal. Dengan demikian peneliti menemukan bahwa dengan skenario optimis, LPS sendiri masih dapat menangani skenario base case dan skenario adverse. Namun tidak lagi bisa menangani saat skenario bergeser menjadi severely adverse atau skenario dengan kondisi krisis 1998.

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ABSTRAKIndonesia has been implementing the no bail out mechanism as part of its protocol to rescue bank problem mainly for systemically important bank. It is utterly important to perform a simulation test to check the feasibility of this newly implemented policy. This research uses dynamic stress testing and CoVaR methods to see the systemic impact and capital requirements in the event of an economic downturn and normal condition. The guarantee proxy is limited to Indonesian Deposit Insurance Corporation LPS asset only due to lack of majority shareholder capital and bank contribution in bail in mechanism data availability . The result shows that with under the optimistic scenario, LPS asset is sufficient to cover the cost of bank rescue. However, under the pessimistic scenario, the cost is beyond LPS capability. Hence no bail out mechanism can only be working properly under normal condition but not in severely adverse condition. "

"Lebih dari satu dekade baik ukuran dan kapitalisasi Equity Real Estate Investment Trust (REITs) di pasar Asia mengalami peningkatan yang signifikan diakibatkan karena instrumen tersebut menarik banyak investor dengan perlakuan pajak khusus serta penawaran imbal hasil yang tinggi terutama di negara berkembang (ASEAN). Kenaikan instrumen ini menimbulkan kecurigaan bahwa REITs tidak terhindarkan dari adanya gelembung spekulatif seiringan dengan timbulnya investor maniak yang berambisi untuk mendapatkan keuntungan modal atas investasi tersebut. Selain itu, perubahan variabel makroekonomi mendukung bukti adanya gelembung spekulatif. Studi ini membahas mengenai karakteristik dan alasan keberadaan gelembung spekulatif khususnya di kawasan ASEAN menggunakan tiga negara termasuk Singapura, Malaysia, dan Thailand sebagai pelopor pasar Equity REITs. Studi ini menyiratkan dua metode dengan penggunaan data bulanan yang dilakukan dengan uji General Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) untuk keberadaan gelembung Spekulatif dan Restricted VAR (VECM) dalam menyelidiki kausalitas jangka pendek dan jangka panjang dari kekuatan makroekonomi yang dipilih termasuk : Nilai tukar, Suku bunga , dan Tingkat inflasi. Temuan penulis menunjukkan dalam uji GSADF, pasar REITs Thailand menunjukkan dua gelembung sedangkan Singapura dan Malaysia tidak membuktikan keberadaannya. Selain itu, kemampuan variabel makroekonomi dalam menjelaskan pengembalian REIT melalui estimasi VECM terdiri dari bukti bahwa nilai tukar mempengaruhi perubahan pengembalian REITs dalam jangka pendek untuk semua negara uji. Selain itu, harga REITs Malaysia dan Thailand juga dipengaruhi oleh perubahan tingkat Inflasi dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Terlebih lagi, suku bunga menunjukkan pengaruh yang tidak signifikan terhadap pengembalian harga REITs. Oleh karena itu, berinvestasi di REITs mencakup risiko kerugian melalui bukti gelembung, risiko mata uang, dan risiko inflasi yang menunjukkan REITs adalah instrumen Inflasi non-lindung nilai.

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Over a decade both size and market capitalization of Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in the Asian market experienced significant increases as the instrument attracts more investors in regards it contains special tax treatment and offering high yields especially in Developing countries (ASEAN). Otherwise, the increase immerses suspicion that the instruments are inevitable from the existence of speculative bubble explained by a mania to earn capital gain on the investment. In addition, the changes in macroeconomics variables support evidence of the existence of a speculative bubble. This study attempt to address characteristics and reasons for speculative bubble specifically within the ASEAN region including Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand as the pioneer of the Equity REITs market. This studies implies two methods using monthly data conducted with General Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test for the existence of Speculative bubbles and Restricted VAR (VECM) in investigating Short and Long- Run Causality from chosen macroeconomics forces: Exchange rate, interest rate, and Inflation rate. Author's finding shows within the GSADF test, Thailand REITs market indicates two bubbles whereas Singapore and Malaysia do not prove their existence. Moreover, the ability of macroeconomics variables in explaining REITs return through VECM estimation is comprised by evidence that the Exchange rate affects changes in REITs return in short run for all countries. In addition, both Malaysia and Thailand REITs prices also affected by Inflation rate changes in the short and long run. Otherwise, interest rate shows a non-significant effect on REITs prices return. Therefore, investing in REITs includes a risk of loss through evidence of bubbles, currency risk, and inflation risk exhibiting REITs is a non-hedge Inflation instrument."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui bagaimana fenomena investment inefficiency yang terjadi pada pasar Indonesia terkait masalah financial constraints dan agency costs yang melanda perusahaan-perusahaan publik di Indonesia. Menggunakan data panel dari perusahaan terdaftar di Indonesia pada periode 2006-2015, ditemukan bukti kuat adanya investment inefficiency, yang dapat dijelaskan oleh keberadaan financial constraints dan agency costs pada perusahaan-perusahaan dalam indek Kompas 100 kategori Februari-Juli 2016. Secara spesifik, ditemukan bahwa perusahaan dengan arus kas di bawah (atas) level optimal cenderung untuk under- (over-) invest sebagai konsekuensi dari financial constraints (agency costs). Lebih jauh, dengan berfokus pada perusahaan under-investment, ditemukan bahwa sensitivitas abnormal investment - free cash flow meningkat menggunakan proksi pengukuran terhadap financial constraints. Dan dengan berfokus pada perusahaan over-investment, ditemukan bahwa sensitivitas abnormal investment - free cash flow meningkat menggunakan proksi pengukuran terhadap agency costs.

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This study aims to determine how the investment inefficiency phenomenon that occurs in the Indonesian market related issues financial constraints and agency costs faced by public companies in Indonesia. Using panel data of listed companies in Indonesia in the period 2006-2015, this study found strong evidence of the investment inefficiency, which can be explained by the existence of financial constraints and agency costs on companies in the Kompas 100 index categories from February to July 2016. Specifically, it was found that companies with cash flow below (above) the optimal level tend to under- (over-) invest as a consequence of financial constraints (agency costs). Furthermore, by focusing on under-investment firms, found that abnormal sensitivity of investment - free cash flow increased by using proxy measures of financial constraints. And by focusing on the over-investment firms, it was found that the abnormal sensitivity of investment - free cash flow increased by using proxy measures of agency costs."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui hubungan antara investasi publik dan investasi swasta di Indonesia. Dengan menggunakan data kuartalan dari tahun 1990-2017 dan metode estimasi ARDL, menunjukkan hubungan negatif dan signifikan di jangka pendek crowding-out. Hal itu menunjukkan hubungan hubungan substitusi dan investasi publik belum mampu menstimulus investasi swasta. terdapat dua hal utama yang menjadi faktor pendorong efek crowding-out, keterbatasan pendanaan untuk investasi publik dan rendahnya kualitas belanja publik di Indonesia. Kemudian, penelitian ini juga menunjukkan efek crowding-out yang lebih besar di periode 1990-2002 dibanding periode 2003-2017. Efek crowding-out lebih besar di periode Orde Baru dan Awal Reformasi karena penurunan kapasitas pendanaan untuk investasi, belum berkembangnya pasar finansial, dan kebijakan fiskal yang tidak transparan dan hati-hati.

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The purpose of this research is to examine the relationship between public and private investment. Using quarterly data from 1990 2017 and the ARDL estimation method, the results shows a negative and significant relationship in the short term crowding out. The relationship shows substitution relations and public investment has not been able to stimulate private investment. There are two main factors driving the crowding out effect, the limited funding capacity to finance the public investment and the low quality of investment spending in Indonesia. Therefore, the study also shows a greater crowding out effect in the period 1990 2002 than the period 2003 2017. The crowding out effect is greater in the New 1990 2002 periods because declining funding capacity for investment, undeveloped financial markets, and fiscal policies that have not been transparent and prudent."