Hasil Pencarian  ::  Simpan CSV :: Kembali

"ABSTRACTOver the last decade, increasing attention has been paid to the effect of monetary policy on the path of economic activities, and it is now generally recognized as a powerful tool in stabilizing the economy. Traditionally, the theory of monetary policy is formulated in terms of the adjustments of the policy instruments in order to achieve the desired values for the ultimate objectives such as the rate of output growth, the inflation rate and the balance of payment objectives. In contrast, to this "one stage procedure" of monetary policy, in the 1960s the new theory of monetary policy which is called "the two stage procedure of monetary policy" introduced the concept of intermediate targets which lie in-between the instruments directly controlled by the monetary authorities and the ultimate objectives of the policy. The efficiency of the monetary policy in a two-stage procedure depends upon the close relationships between the policy instruments and the intermediate target, and also between the intermediate targets and the ultimate policy objectives. In recent years, central bankers from some countries, in conducting monetary policy, have paid increasing attention to controlling monetary aggregates as a mean of achieving the desired values of its ultimate objectives. A resurgence of emphasis on money and its influence on the level of economic activity occurred in the decade of the sixties, which has also been supported by a great deal of empirical and theoretical researches. Foremost are the very extensive research findings by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz in their monumental work "A Monetary History of the United States 1867 - 1960" which concluded among others, "The changes in the behavior of the money stock have closely associated with changes in economic activity". On the same line of argument, Leonall C. Andersen and Yerry L. Yordan, in their research finding, came to the conclusion that the influences of changes in money stock have a strong, rapid and predictable effect on the rate of change of economic activity. Extending the Andersen-Yordan work over a longer period, Michel W. Keran found that monetary influence has dominated economic activity even in the period when financial and institutional factors were substantially different. These empirical results were derived from the economies of developed countries, especially United States."

"ABSTRAKPencapaian stabilitas nilai tukar dan peningkatan kondisi neraca perdagangan dapat dipengaruhi oleh monetary policy shock suatu negara dan transmisi kebijakan moneter negara tersebut. Penelitian untuk kasus Indonesia dengan periode 2000 sampai 2013 menggunakan metode Vector Error Correction Model, menemukan bahwa adanya shock bersifat kontraktif mengakibatkan nilai tukar terapresiasi dan menurunnya neraca perdagangan, begitu pun sebaliknya. Hasil penelitian juga menunjukkan transmisi kebijakan moneter melalui pendekatan harga lebih efektif dibandingkan melalui pendekatan kuantitas.

---

ABSTRACTAchieving exchange rate stability and improvement of trade balance can be influenced by a shock on monetary policy and transmission mechanism of monetary policy. This study were conducted in Indonesia for period 2000 to 2013. By using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), contractionary monetary policy shocks causes exchange rate of rupiah to appreciate and trade balance to worsen. During the period analysis, this study finds that transmission mechanism of monetary policy with price approach is more effectitve rather than quantity approach of monetary policy."

"Pengaruh suku bunga bank sentral dalam upaya mengendalikan laju inflasi merupakan hal yang secara teoritis terbukti namun setelah krisis ekonomi tahun 2008 suku bunga penjamin atau LPS mulai berperan dalam perekonomian Indonesia sehingga memungkinkan terjadinya dualisme dalam perekonomian Dalam penelitian ini analisis dilakukan pada negara Indonesia periode 2005 kuartal 4 sampai 2014 kuartal 3 Dengan menggunakan metode Vector Error Correction Model ditemukan bahwa meski pengaruh suku bunga LPS dalam perekonomian tidak sebesar suku bunga Bank Indonesia Selain itu ditemukan juga bahwa adanya shock pada suku bunga Bank Indonesia dan suku bunga LPS mengakibatkan output perekonomian mengalami penurunan dan inflasi mengalami kenaikan namun terjadi perbedaan periode respon Selain itu ditemukan juga bahwa suku bunga Bank Indonesia masih merupakan suku bunga acuan Disisi lain suku bunga LPS yang merupakan cerminan suku bunga perbankan juga masih menggunakan suku bunga Bank Indonesia sebagai acuanya Kata Kunci Shock kebijakan moneter Suku bunga LPS Suku bunga Bank Indonesia.

---

In theory the effect of central bank rate is proven in an attempt to control the inflation rate but after 2008 economic crisis the LPS rate in Indonesia so there is possibility for dualism In this study the analysis was conducted in Indonesia for period 2005 quarter 4 to 2014 quarter 3 By using Vector Error Correction Model this study found that the effect of deposit insurance in the economic was weaker than Bank of Indonesia interest rate In addition this study find that shock in Bank Indonesia interest rate and LPS rate will result decrease in output and increase in inflation but duration of responses will be the difference After that this study find that in Indonesia the central bank rate is still the primary rate In the other side the deposit insurance rate which reflect the demand of banking sector interest still use Bank Indonesia rate as key interest rate Key Word Monetary policy shock Central Bank Interest rate Deposit Insurance Rate."

"ABSTRAKTujuan utama dari disertasi ini adalah untuk mengetahui kebijakan pengendalian harga yang berperan penting dalam penanggulangan kemiskinan. Dari tujuan utama tersebut, maka disertasi ini terdiri dari tiga essai. Essai pertama berusaha untuk mengetahui kelompok komoditas mana yang jika terjadi peningkatan harga lebih merugikan kesejahteraan masyarakat miskin. Penulis menemukan bukti bahwa saat terjadi peningkatan harga makanan, maka kelompok rumah tangga miskin lebih dirugikan karena proporsi pengeluaran mereka yang relatif tinggi. Hasil tersebut kemudian dijadikan dasar oleh penulis untuk mengkaji essai kedua dan ketiga. Essai kedua mengkaji apakah pakem pengendalian inflasi yaitu kebijakan moneter memiliki peran yang penting dalam pengendalian inflasi makanan.Temuan pada kajian kedua ini menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan moneter tidak memiliki peran yang cukup signifikan dalam pengendalian inflasi makanan. Namun demikian terdapat spill-over effect dari inflasi makanan ke inflasi nonmakanan. Maka saat terjadi shock pada inflasi makanan, kebijakan moneter tetap dibutuhkan sebagai pengendali inflasi non-makanan yang mengalami tekanan karena inflasi makanan. Essai ketiga kemudian mengkaji kebiπjakan dari sisi struktural, yaitu perbaikan konektivitas domestik melalui infrastruktur transportasi darat dan laut terhadap pengendalian harga makanan. Bukti empiris pada kajian ketiga ini menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan kualitas dan kuantitas infrastruktur transportasi berperan penting dalam pengendalian harga makanan. Secara khusus, pelabuhan dengan skala relatif besar (komersial) memiliki peran yang lebih penting, mengingat kondisi geografis Indonesia yang merupakan Negara kepulauan.

---

ABSTRACT

This dissertation seeks to find the price stabilization policy that have important role in poverty alleviation. Spesifically, this dissertation consists of three essays. The first essay is to find the commodity basket that when the price increases would have more adverse impact on the poor. The empirical evidence found in this essay is food is the most important commodity for the poor, since food inflation has the most detrimental effect on the poor welfare. Thus, food price stabilitzation is important in poverty alleviation. Based on this result, I investigated the role of monetary policy in stabilizing food inflation on the second essay. The evidence shows that monetary policy has relatively little role on food inflation, but relatively high on non-food inflation.

However, monetary policy response is still needed in the event of food inflation shock. This is because there is significant evidence that food inflation propagated into non-food inflation. The second essay result implies that Indonesia needed structural policy to maintain the food price. One of the structural factors that has been contributing to the high cost economy in Indonesia is domestic connectivity problem. Thus, the third essay main purpose is to determine whether increasing the quality and quantity of transportation infrastructure can have important role in food price stabilization. The empirical results show that this is true. In particular, increases in quality and quantity of commercial ports relatively has higher role in this matter. The geographical characteristic of Indonesia that is an archipelago supported the argument."

"Dalam penelitian ini akan dibahas analisis pengaruh kebijakan moneter terhadap inflasi regional di Indonesia yang tidak simetri. Penelitian ini mengkaji apakah pengaruh kebijakan moneter yang tercerminkan melalui suku bunga kebijakan, akan direspons secara tidak simetris terhadap pergerakan tingkat inflasi regional di Indonesia. Sesuai dengan Kajian Regional yang dilakukan oleh Bank Indonesia, regional di Indonesia akan dibagai menjadi 5 wilayah utama yaitu, Wilayah Sumatera, Wilayah Jawa, Wilayah Kalimantan, Wilayah Bali-Nusa Tenggara (Balinustra), dan Wilayah Sulawesi-Maluku-Papua (Sulampua). Dengan menggunakan model structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) akan dijelaskan bahwa respons laju inflasi regional bersifat asimteris terhadap suku bunga kebijakan yang ditetapkan. Hasilnya menunjukan bahwa saat terjadi gangguan pada kebijakan moneter, tingkat harga di Wilayah Balinustra, dan Sulampua langsung merespons gangguan tersebut secara negatif di periode awal.

---

This paper will discuss the response of monetary policies on regional inflation in Indonesia. This research examines whether monetary policy that reflected through policy interest rates, will be responsded asymmetrically to movements in regional inflation in Indonesia. Based on the Regional Research that conducted by Bank Indonesia, regional in Indonesia will be divided into 5 (five) main regions, namely Sumatra Region, Java Region, Kalimantan Region, Bali-Nusa Tenggara Region (Balinustra), and Sulawesi-Maluku-Papua Region (Sulampua). Using the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, it will be explained that the response of the regional inflation rate is asymmetrical to the policy interest rates set. The results show that when there is a shock in monetary policy, the price level in the Balinustra, and Sulampua Region immediately responsds to the shock negatively in the initial period."

"Tingkat rasio kapital perbankan dapat mempengaruhi perilaku pengambilan risiko perbankan ketika terjadi perubahan kebijakan moneter Dell`s Ariccia et al., 2014. Studi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa eksistensi dari efek threshold kapital terhadap transmisi pengambilan risiko kebijakan moneter di Indonesia. Studi ini juga akan membandingkan dampak kebijakan moneter di rezim threshold yang berbeda. Penelitian akan menggunakan data panel bulanan dari neraca keuangan 5 grup bank di Indonesia dari Januari 2011 hingga Juli 2016. Model Regresi Panel Threshold Hansen, 1999 akan digunakan untuk menganalisa efek threshold kapital. Hasil analisa menunjukkan bahwa efek threshold kapital berlaku di Indonesia dan kebijakan moneter memiliki dampak yang signifikan terhadap pengambilan risiko perbankan hanya pada bank yang berkapitalisasi rendah.

---

Bank`s capital ratio can affect their risk taking behavior toward change in monetary policy Dell`s Ariccia et al., 2014 . This study aims to analyze the existence of capital threshold effect on the risk taking channel of monetary policy in Indonesia and intends to compare the impact of monetary policy under different threshold regime. The study is implemented using monthly balanced panel data of 5 banks group balance sheet in Indonesia from January 2011 to July 2016. Panel Threshold Regression Model Hansen, 1999 is used to analyze the capital threshold effect. The results show that the capital threshold effect does exist in Indonesia and monetary policy has a significant effect on bank risk taking only for low capitalized banks."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan analisis mengenai mekanisme transmisi kebijakan moneter di Indonesia khususnya dengan jalur harga aset baik dari sisi konvensional maupun syariah, karena saat ini Indonesia menggunakan sistem finansial ganda. Lebih lanjut lagi dari kedua sistem tersebut akan dibandingkan untuk diukur tingkat efektifitas dalam mengendalikan tingkat inflasi. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) yang mana menggunakan variabel seperti Indeks Harga Konsumsi (IHK), Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (SBI), saluran kredit bank umum (Loan), Pasar Uang Antar Bank (PUAB), Jumlah Uang Beredar dalam arti luas (M2), Surat Berharga Negara (SBN) dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dari sisi konvensional. Lalu dari sisi syariah terdapat IHK, Sertifikat Bank Indonesia Syariah (SBIS), saluran kredit bank umum syariah (FINC), Pasar Uang Antar Bank Syariah (PUAS), M2, repo Sertifikat Berharga Syariah Negara (SBSN) dan Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). Dimana hasil penelitian menunjukan jika IHSG cukup signifikan untuk mempengaruhi IHK. Sedangkan JII, SBN dan SBSN tidak signifikan dalam mempengaruhi IHK.

---

This research aims to conduct analysis on the mechanism of transmission of monetary policy in Indonesia, especially with the price path of assets both from the conventional and sharia, because currently Indonesia uses a dual financial system. Moreover, the two systems will be compared to measured the level of effectiveness in controlling the inflation rate. The method used in this research is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) which uses variables such as the consumption price Index (CPI), the Bank Indonesia certificate (SBI), the credit line of the Commercial Bank (Loan), the Interbank money Market (PUAB), the Money supply in the broad (M2), state Securities (SBN) and composite stock price Index (IDX) from the conventional side. Then from the sharia side, there are CPI, Bank Indonesia Sharia certificate (SBIS), Sharia Bank financing (FINC), Sharia interbank money Market (PUAS), M2, National Sharia certificate (SBSN) and Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). The result is IHSG is significant to influence the IHK. On the other hand JII, SBN and SBSN are not significant to influence IHK."

"ABSTRAKTesis ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa interaksi kebijakan moneter dan fiskal diIndonesia dalam dua periode sub-sampel yang ditandai dengan diberlakukannyaUndang-Undang Nomor 23 Tahun 1999 tentang Bank Indonesia. Hasil darianalisa Vektor Autoregresi yang menyertakan lima variabel ekonomi makro ini(antara lain, tingkat pertumbuhan riil Produk Domestik Bruto, tingkat surplusfiscal, suku bunga SBI 1 bulan, tingkat inflasi, dan tingkat pertumbuhan kursRupiah atas Dollar Amerika Serikat) menunjukkan bahwa status independen BankIndonesia merubah interaksi antara kebijakan moneter dan fiskal, sebagaimanahalnya dengan cara pembuat kebijakan tersebut terhadap performa variabel makroekonomi lainnya.

---

ABSTRACTThe purpose of this study is to analyze the monetary and fiscal policy interactionin Indonesia in the two sub-sample periods which was marked by the enactment ofAct Number 23 in 1999. Using a Vector Autoregression analysis whichincorporating macroeconomics variables, the results show that the independencestatus of the central bank of Indonesia which given by the new law changes theinteractions of monetary and fiscal policy, as well as the way the policymakersinfluencing the performance of targeted variables."