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"Perkembangan lingkungan strategis dan geopolitik global saat ini menjadi perhatian serius bagi Pemerintah Indonesia. Konflik bersenjata serta ketegangan politik antar negara-negara menjadi potensi ancaman yang tidak dapat diprediksi. Keberadaan diaspora Indonesia menjadi fokus Pemerintah Indonesia dalam rangka melindungi keselamatan Warga Negara Indonesia yang ada di luar negeri dari potensi ancaman konflik global. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis fungsi intelijen dan kendala yang dihadapi dalam kegiatan pengamanan intelijen dalam operasi evakuasi WNI di Ukraina dalam konflik Rusia-Ukraina. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode penelitian kualitatif dengan teknik pengumpulan data wawancara terhadap beberapa pihak-pihak yang berkompeten di bidang perlindungan Warga Negara Indonesia di luar negeri. Hasil penelitian ini adalah Pemerintah Indonesia melakukan serangkaian kegiatan pengamanan intelijen dalam rangka melindungi Warga Negara Indonesia yang berada di wilayah konflik. Pemerintah Indonesia berhasil meminimalisisr potensi ancaman bagi WNI di wilayah konflik dengan mengeluarkan Nota Diplomatik dan pengerahan Satuan Tugas Khusus dari berbagai elemen pemerintahan. Kendati demikian, Pemerintah Indonesia belum memiliki regulasi yang secara komprehensif mengatur koordinasi operasi evakuasi WNI di luar negeri.

Kata kunci: Ancaman, Pengamanan, Intelijen, Warga Negara

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The dynamics of the global strategic and geopolitical environment are currently a serious concern for the Indonesian government. Armed conflicts and political tensions between countries are potential threats that cannot be predicted. The Indonesian diaspora's existence is the Indonesian government's focus to protect the safety of Indonesian citizens abroad from any potential threats of global conflict. This study aims to analyse the function of intelligence and the obstacles encountered in intelligence security activities within evacuation operations for Indonesian citizens in Ukraine during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. This study uses a qualitative research method with interview data collection techniques with several parties who are involved in the field of protection for Indonesian citizens abroad. The results of this study are that the Indonesian government carries out numerous intelligence security activities to protect Indonesian citizens in conflict areas. The Indonesian government succeeded in reducing potential threats to Indonesian citizens in conflict areas by issuing Diplomatic Notes and deploying Special Task Forces from various government elements. Nevertheless, the Indonesian government has not had a comprehensive regulation, leading to coordinating evacuation operations for citizens abroad."

"Berbagai analisa mengenai proses evakuasi penumpang di kapal telah dilakukan dalam tahun-tahun yang lalu. Terutama setelah dihasilkannya aturan SOLAS II-2/28-1.3 mengenai rancangan escape route yang harus dievaluasi segera pada proses desain kapal. Akan tetapi, untuk menginvestigasi proses evakuasi secara detail, tidak cukup hanya dengan melihat dari geometry, seperti yang digambarkan oleh sistem hidrolik atau aliran. Aspek behavior dan procedural juga harus dimasukkan dalam perhitungan, meskipun tidak ada seorangpun yang akan bisa memprediksi secara tepat apa yang akan terjadi. Ketika kondisi awal kapal, faktor penyebab keadaan darurat di kapal dan aturan human behavior tidak diketahui, tidak mustahil untuk menghitung kuantitas faktor-faktor tersebut. Sekarang, jawaban yang harus ditemukan adalah bagaimana mengkondisikan sedekat mungkin dengan kenyataan dengan metode yang sefleksibel mungkin, tepat dan dapat dipahami. Tentu saja ini menjadi pertanyaan penting dalam memodelkan simulasi evakuasi dari proses yang nyata. Pada skripsi ini, penulis mensimulasikan model secara mikroskopik dengan buildingEXODUS yang mampu menggambarkan setiap karakteristik individu penumpang secara mendetail dan di saat yang sama menggambarkan simulasi yang efisien dan cepat. Aspek behavior dan procedural evakuasi termasuk didalamnya urutan rute, muster station dan embarkation station, berbeda-beda setiap kelompok penumpang. Dengan dua skenario kondisi yang mungkin terjadi saat kapal dalam keadaan darurat seperti kebakaran, menghasilkan taksiran waktu evakuasi. Implementasi dari pemodelan ini adalah salah satu desain kapal ferry ro-ro 500 GT.

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The analysis of passenger evacuation processes onboard passenger ship has attracted increasing interest over the last year, especially after SOLAS regulation II-2/28-1.3 has prescribed. It is required escape route shall be evaluated early in the design process. However, for a thorough investigation of the evacuation performance it is not efficient to look only at the geometry, like hydraulic and flow models do. Behavioral and procedural aspects have also to be taken into account, although one will never be able to predict exactly what will happen. Since knowledge of the initial conditions, influencing factors and lows of human behavior is limited, it doesn't make sense to include factors that cannot be quantified. Now, answer has to be found is how to get as close to reality as necessary and to provide a method as flexible, straightforward and comprehensible as possible. This, of course, is a crucial question in evacuation assessment and modeling of real world processes in general.

Writer presents a microscopic simulation model with buildingEXODUS that is capable of representing every passenger's individual characteristic as well as all necessary details and at the same time allows for fast and efficient simulation. The behavior and procedural aspects of evacuation are included route, muster station and embarkation station define sequence of events for deferent group of passenger. With two scenario of possible condition when emergency situations, for example fire, had predicted evacuation time. The implementation of the model is one of 500 GT ferry ro-ro passenger ship' General Arrangement."

"This book provides a new paradigm for evacuation planning strategies and techniques. Recently, evacuation planning and modeling have increasingly attracted interest among researchers as well as government officials. This interest stems from the recent catastrophic hurricanes and weather-related events that occurred in the southeastern United States (Hurricane Katrina and Rita). The evacuation methods that were in place before and during the hurricanes did not work well and resulted in thousands of deaths. This book offers insights into the methods and techniques that allow for implementing mathematical-based, simulation-based, and integrated optimization and simulation-based engineering approaches for evacuation planning."

"Kekerasan seksual dalam konflik merupakan fenomena yang akrab dalam sejarah peperangan dan konflik dunia. Berdasarkan laporan Human Rights Watch dan PBB, kekerasan seksual kembali terjadi pada konflik Rusia-Ukraina 2022. Berbagai media massa, seperti media Inggris The Guardian dan media Rusia RIA Novosti, menyajikan topik ini dengan cara yang berbeda dalam artikel-artikelnya. Dalam pandangan konstruktivisme, perbedaan cara penyajian berita itu merupakan hal yang wajar karena berita bukanlah cermin realitas, melainkan hasil konstruksi dari proses pembingkaian. Lalu, bagaimana media The Guardian dan RIA Novosti membingkai kekerasan seksual dalam konflik Rusia-Ukraina selama 24 Februari–31 Desember 2022? Bertujuan untuk mengetahui bagaimana bingkai atas topik tersebut ditampilkan oleh The Guardian dan RIA Novosti, penelitian ini menganalisis artikel-artikel dari kedua media dengan model pembingkaian milik Robert Entman. Dari temuan penelitian ini, dapat dimaknai bahwa The Guardian membingkai topik kekerasan seksual dalam konflik Rusia-Ukraina 2022 sebagai masalah HAM dan transnasional, sedangkan RIA Novosti membingkai topik tersebut sebagai tuduhan palsu terhadap Rusia.

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Conflict-related sexual violence is a familiar phenomenon inside the world's history of war and conflict. Based on Human Rights Watch and the UN's reports, sexual violence was occurring again in the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. Various mass media, such as British media The Guardian and Russian media RIA Novosti, delivered this topic differently in their news articles. From the view of constructivism, the difference in the way of delivering news is prevalent because news is not a mirror of reality but the result of a construction from a framing process. Then, how did The Guardian and RIA Novosti frame sexual violence in the Russia-Ukraine conflict from 24 February–31 December 2022? Aiming to know how the frame of the topic was served by The Guardian and RIA Novosti, this study analyzes articles from both medias using Robert Entman's framing model. From the findings of this study, it can be interpreted that The Guardian framed the topic of sexual violence in the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict as a human rights and transnational issue, while RIA Novosti framed it as a false accusation against Russia."

"Media visual, khususnya grafiti memainkan peran penting dalam kehidupan masyarakat Rusia pada saat terjadinya konflik antara Rusia-Ukraina tahun 2022. Grafiti merupakan suatu fenomena budaya yang biasanya digunakan untuk mengekspresikan diri melalui tagging dan spraying. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini dibuat untuk mengkaji beberapa grafiti yang merepresentasikan antiperang serta mengetahui kegunaan grafiti sebagai alat komunikasi untuk menyuarakan kritik terhadap konflik di Moskow. Sumber data penelitian diambil dari portal berita Meduza.io dengan jumlah 9 gambar grafiti di Moskow dari total 41 gambar grafiti, selebaran, spanduk, dan mural yang tersebar di beberapa kota Rusia. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif dengan pendekatan teori Analisis Wacana Kritis. Data penelitian dikumpulkan melalui dokumentasi grafiti dibuat oleh masyarakat Rusia yang tidak setuju dengan kebijakan pemerintah pada laman Meduza.io. Penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa grafiti digunakan sebagai media alternatif untuk menyuarakan pendapat karena mudah dibuat, anonim, dan dapat disebarkan dengan cepat. Grafiti tersebut menggunakan bahasa yang lugas dan sederhana, serta kombinasi tulisan yang mencolok untuk menarik perhatian publik. Penelitian ini juga menunjukkan bahwa grafiti merupakan bentuk perlawanan masyarakat secara spontan terhadap sensor dan kontrol pemerintah di Rusia.

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Visual media, especially graffiti, played an important role in Russian society during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. Graffiti is a cultural phenomenon that is usually used for self-expression through tagging and spraying. Therefore, this study aims to analyze several graffiti that represent anti-war sentiment and to understand the use of graffiti as a communication tool to voice criticism against the conflict in Moscow. The research data source was obtained from the news portal Meduza.io, with a total of 9 graffiti images in Moscow from a total of 41 graffiti images, flyers, banners, and murals spread across several Russian cities. This study employed a qualitative method with a Critical Discourse Analysis theoretical approach. Research data was collected through documentation of graffiti created by anti-government Russian citizens on the Meduza.io website. This study shows that graffiti is used as an alternative media to express opinions because it is easy to make, anonymous, and can be spread quickly. The graffiti employs straightforward language, as well as eye-catching lettering combinations, to attract public attention. This study also demonstrates that graffiti is a form of spontaneous public resistance to government censorship and control in Russia."

"Medium penyebarluasan ideologi dan propaganda terkhusus dalam konflik Rusia-Ukraina tahun 2022 mayoritas bersumber dari media sosial. Selama konflik berlangsung, sebuah platform media sosial terkemuka di Rusia, Telegram, telah berperan penting dalam pendistribusian informasi yang faktual maupun non-faktual. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membahas konsep dan strategi proyek pemeriksa fakta, yang diusung administrator Telegram non-politik Rusia, berupa Telegram dengan nama Война с фейками dengan misi menangkal berita palsu yang dilanjut dengan paparan data faktual. Analisa juga mengkaji kritik penilaian terhadap saluran Telegram sebagai bentuk pembelaan Rusia terhadap perlawanan atas disinformasi narasi yang marak terjadi semasa konflik Rusia dan Ukraina di Bucha tahun 2022 berlangsung. Peneliti menggunakan kerangka teori Analisis Framing oleh Robert N. Entman (1993) dan metode pengumpulan data melalui Internet Searching berdasarkan referensi, artikel berita, hingga perundang-undangan yang relevan dengan objek penelitian. Data membuktikan, saluran Telegram Война с фейками telah berhasil menginvestigasi lebih dari 3000 berita palsu di wilayah Ukraina dan wilayah Bucha selama tahun 2022. Lebih lanjut, konsep dan strategi yang diterapkan oleh Telegram Война с фейками membuktikan efektivitasnya sebagai instrumen dalam mengcounter disinformasi yang disebarkan oleh media-media propaganda Ukraina terkait pembantaian di Bucha pada April 2022, yang ditujukan kepada Rusia.

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The medium for disseminating ideology and propaganda, particularly during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, primarily stems from social media. Throughout the conflict, a prominent Russian social media platform, Telegram, has played a crucial role in distributing both factual and non-factual information. This study aims to discuss the concepts and strategies of a fact-checking project initiated by a non-political Russian Telegram administrator, named Война с фейками, with a mission to counter fake news followed by the presentation of factual data. The analysis also examines the criticism and assessment of the Telegram channel as a form of Russia's defense against the widespread disinformation narratives during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in Bucha in 2022. The researcher employs the Framing Analysis theory by Robert N. Entman (1993) and the data collection method through Internet Searching based on references, news articles, and relevant legislation to the research subject. The data shows that the Telegram channel Война с фейками has successfully investigated more than 3,000 fake news items in Ukraine and the Bucha area during 2022. Furthermore, the concepts and strategies implemented by Telegram Война с фейками demonstrate its effectiveness as an instrument in countering disinformation spread by Ukrainian propaganda media regarding the Bucha massacre in April 2022, which was directed at Russia."

"Penelitian ini membahas tentang perpanjangan konflik yang terjadi antara dua negara pecah belah yaitu Rusia dengan Ukraina. Dengan invasi yang dilakukan sejak tahun 2014, dan penyerangan kembali yang dilakukan pada tahun 2022, hal ini menyebabkan adanya krisis internasional yang disebabkan oleh Rusia. Dengan negara-negara lain menjadi aktor yang terdampak, mulai dari kenaikan harga energi, pertambahan pengungsi , maka nerbagai upaya dilakukan terutama oleh kawasan Barat, untuk dapat meredakan perselisihan ini dan juga untuk melemahkan kekuatan Rusia dalam penyerangan yang dilakukan terhadap Ukraina. Salah satu upayanya adalah memberlakukan sanksi berat terhadap Rusia. Mulai dari embargo ekspor impor, pembatasan transaksi perdagangan dan juga pemboikotan industri Rusia di negara-negara kawasan Barat. Dengan sanksi yang bertubi diberikan oleh banyak negara dari kawasan Barat, hal ini membuat Rusia juga melakukan pertahanan serta penyerangan balik sebagai respons Rusia menerima sanksi tersebut. Penelitian ini dibatasi dalam periode waktu 10 tahun terakhir, yaitu 2013 hingga 2023 dengan lingkup spasial Rusia, Uni Eropa dan juga Asia. Teori yang digunakan adalah Regional Security Complex melalui perspektif konstruktivisme dan membahas bagaimana pola geostrategi dan geopolitik Rusia berpengaruh dalam menjalankan kepentingannya untuk melakukan counter terhadap sanksi-sanksi yang diberikan kepada Rusia. Menggunakan metode analisis kualitatif studi kasus, penelitian ini berisi respons yang diberikan Rusia atas sanksi yang diberlakukan oleh kawasan Barat. Mulai dari perubahan geopolitik dan geostrategi Rusia, dan juga alasan Rusia melakukan alternatif kerjasama dengan negara-negara non-barat secara multisektoral, mulai dari bidang yang esensial hingga bidang-bidang yang bersifat low politics.

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This research aims to explore the aspirations and mechanisms of Ukrainian refugee arrivals in the Nordic region. The war has led to a massive migration of Ukrainian citizens to various European countries, but the focus of this study is on the reasons why Ukrainian refugees migrate to the Nordic region. The prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine, starting in 2014 and escalating into war in February 2022, has complex and significant impacts on various aspects. One of the resulting impacts is the migration issue of Ukrainian communities, which is the central theme of this research. The research methodology employs exploratory qualitative methods through observation and literature review to illustrate the reality and complexity of the Ukrainian migration issue and the influence of their aspirations in the Nordic region. The theoretical framework includes the Social Integration Theory and the concept of Transnational Connections. The key findings of this research indicate that the aspirations of Ukrainian refugees to migrate to the Nordic region are influenced by both mechanical and organic solidarity. They aspire to migrate to the Nordic countries due to the support provided by these nations amidst the challenges faced by refugees. Transnational connections, whether through social networks, community organizations, or volunteer networks already established in the Nordic region, play a crucial role in providing support and information to Ukrainian refugees."

"Kecamatan Palabuhanratu merupakan wilayah yang rawan terhadap bencana gempabumi dan tsunami sehingga perlu adanya upaya-upaya mitigasi bencana gempabumi dan tsunami. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan jalur evakuasi efektif di Kecamatan Palabuhanratu. Untuk mendapatkan hasil tersebut dilakukan analisis bahaya tsunami menggunakan pemodelan tsunami dengan perangkat lunak COMCOT berdasarkan skenario terburuk potensi momen magnitudo 8,8 untuk Megathrust segmen Selat Sunda - Banten, melakukan analisis penduduk terdampak bahaya tsunami menggunakan data People in Pixel, melakukan analisis jalur evakuasi dan wilayah jangkauan tempat evakuasi menggunakan metode Network Analysis pada perangkat lunak SIG, serta mensintesa kepadatan jalur di Kecamatan Palabuhanratu menggunakan simulai agent-based model pada aplikasi Netlogo 6.3.0. Hasil analisis bahaya tsunami diketahui bahwa terdapat 5 desa yang terkena dampak tsunami dengan ketinggian maksimum tsunami mencapai 18,3 meter, waktu tiba gelombang tsunami tercepat 21 menit, dan jarak tsunami terjauh di daratan (inundasi) mencapai 1735 m. Estimasi penduduk yang terdampak tsunami tingkat bahaya tinggi sebesar 86,8 %, tingkat bahaya sedang 6,8 % dan tingkat bahaya rendah 6,5 % dari total penduduk yang terdampak bahaya tsunami. Penelitian ini berhasil menentukan 54 jalur evakuasi pada 4 desa di Kecamatan Palabuhanratu dengan mempertimbangkan kondisi jalan yang ada dan diketahui bahwa lokasi tempat evakuasi existing tidak dapat menjangkau seluruh area bahaya tsunami. Hasil dari simulasi berbasis agen pada Desa Citepus, Kelurahan Palabuhanratu dan Desa Jayanti memiliki tingkat kepadatan relatif tinggi pada saat proses evakuasi. Persentase penduduk selamat yang relatif tinggi membuktikan bahwa jalur evakuasi yang ditentukan pada penelitian ini sudah efektif.

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Palabuhanratu Sub-district is an area that is prone to earthquakes and tsunamis, so there is a need for earthquake and tsunami mitigation efforts. This study aims to obtain an adequate evacuation route in Palabuhanratu District. To obtain these results, a tsunami hazard analysis was carried out using tsunami modeling with COMCOT software based on the worst scenario possible moment of magnitude 8.8 for the Sunda-Banten Strait Megathrust segment, analyzing the population affected by the tsunami hazard using People in Pixel data, exploring evacuation routes and areas. Coverage of evacuation sites using the Network Analysis method in GIS software and synthesizing the density of lanes in Palabuhanratu District using an agent-based model simulation in the Netlogo 6.3.0 application. The tsunami hazard analysis results found that five villages were affected by the tsunami with a maximum tsunami height of 18.3 meters, the fastest tsunami wave arrival time was 21 minutes, and the farthest distance of a tsunami on land (inundation) reached 1735 m. It is estimated that the population affected by the high-hazard tsunami is 86.8%, the medium hazard level is 6.8%, and the low-hazard level is 6.5% of the total population affected by the tsunami hazard. This research successfully determined 54 evacuation routes in 4 villages in Palabuhanratu District by considering the existing road conditions. It is known that the current evacuation sites cannot reach all tsunami hazard areas. The results of the agent-based simulation in 3 villages, namely Citepus Village, Jayanti Village, and Palabuhanratu Village, had relatively high levels of density during the evacuation process. The relatively high percentage of survivors proves that the evacuation routes determined in this study are effective."

"[ABSTRAKRangkaian konflik komunal yang terjadi pada tahun 1998 hingga 2001kemudian berlanjut menjadi aksi teror menimbulkan pertanyaan besar sejumlahkalangan Salah satunya adalah mempertanyakan apakah intelijen kepolisiangagal berperan sebagai alat negara dalam mendeteksi mengantisipasi danmemberikan infomasi penting terkait kerusuhan yang terjadi di wilayah Poso Akhirnya dalam kurun waktu lebih dari dua tahun 2005 2007 sebagian besarpelaku teror yang beroperasi di pulau Sulawesi pada umumnya dan di kota Posopada khususnya berhasil dibongkar dan diungkap intelijen Polri Pengungkapanini memunculkan pertanyaan bagaimana intelijen kepolisian berhasilmengungkap jaringan tersebut Penelitian ini mengunakan pendekatan kualitatif Metode in depthinterview digunakan untuk pengumpulan data penelitian Informan sebagai narasumber penelitian ini merupakan anggota kepolisian yang pernah bertugas dalamoperasi kepolisian di Poso selama konflik dan teror Poso tahun 1998 2007 Informan lainya adalah pelaku teror serta tokoh masyarakat Poso Untukmenjawab pertanyaaan penelitian digunakan teknik analisa timeline fishbone danwildcard analysis Untuk menganalisa kegagalan inteljen tersebut penulis mengunakananalisa kegagalan intelijen dengan pendekatan teori Thomas Copeland Sedangkanuntuk analisa keberhasilan intelijen digunakan antithesis dari teori kegagalanThomas Copeland Dalam penelitian ini penulis akhirnya menemukan sejumlahvariabel kegagalan maupun keberhasilan intelijen Polri sesuai dengan penjelasanThomas Copeland pada sisi Kebijakan dan Kepemimpinan Organisasi AnalisisIntelijen dan Persepsi Informasi Ancaman

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ABSTRACTThe series of communal conflict that occurred in 1998 and 2001 andcontinued into terror raise a big question One is the question whether the policefailed to act as an intelligence tool in detecting state anticipating and providingimportant information related to the riots in Poso Finally in a period of more thantwo years 2005 2007 most of the terrorists who operated on Sulawesi in generaland in the town of Poso in particular had been uncovered and revealed by Policeintelligence This disclosure raises the question of how police intelligenceuncovered the network This research uses a qualitative approach In depth interview method isused for research data collection Informants as a resource of this research are amember of the police who had served in the police operation in Poso during theconflict and terror Poso in 1998 2007 Other informants are terrorists andcommunity leaders in Poso To answer the research questions this research usestimeline fishbone and wildcard analysis techniques To analyze the intelligence failure the author uses the theory of ThomasCopeland about intelligence failure Antithesis of the theory of Thomas Copelandis used to analyze the intelligence success In this research the authors finallydiscover number of variables intelligence failures and successes in accordancewith the explanation Thomas Copeland on the Policy and Leadership Organization Intelligence Analysis and Perception of Threat Information ;The series of communal conflict that occurred in 1998 and 2001 andcontinued into terror raise a big question One is the question whether the policefailed to act as an intelligence tool in detecting state anticipating and providingimportant information related to the riots in Poso Finally in a period of more thantwo years 2005 2007 most of the terrorists who operated on Sulawesi in generaland in the town of Poso in particular had been uncovered and revealed by Policeintelligence This disclosure raises the question of how police intelligenceuncovered the network This research uses a qualitative approach In depth interview method isused for research data collection Informants as a resource of this research are amember of the police who had served in the police operation in Poso during theconflict and terror Poso in 1998 2007 Other informants are terrorists andcommunity leaders in Poso To answer the research questions this research usestimeline fishbone and wildcard analysis techniques To analyze the intelligence failure the author uses the theory of ThomasCopeland about intelligence failure Antithesis of the theory of Thomas Copelandis used to analyze the intelligence success In this research the authors finallydiscover number of variables intelligence failures and successes in accordancewith the explanation Thomas Copeland on the Policy and Leadership Organization Intelligence Analysis and Perception of Threat Information ;The series of communal conflict that occurred in 1998 and 2001 andcontinued into terror raise a big question One is the question whether the policefailed to act as an intelligence tool in detecting state anticipating and providingimportant information related to the riots in Poso Finally in a period of more thantwo years 2005 2007 most of the terrorists who operated on Sulawesi in generaland in the town of Poso in particular had been uncovered and revealed by Policeintelligence This disclosure raises the question of how police intelligenceuncovered the network This research uses a qualitative approach In depth interview method isused for research data collection Informants as a resource of this research are amember of the police who had served in the police operation in Poso during theconflict and terror Poso in 1998 2007 Other informants are terrorists andcommunity leaders in Poso To answer the research questions this research usestimeline fishbone and wildcard analysis techniques To analyze the intelligence failure the author uses the theory of ThomasCopeland about intelligence failure Antithesis of the theory of Thomas Copelandis used to analyze the intelligence success In this research the authors finallydiscover number of variables intelligence failures and successes in accordancewith the explanation Thomas Copeland on the Policy and Leadership Organization Intelligence Analysis and Perception of Threat Information , The series of communal conflict that occurred in 1998 and 2001 andcontinued into terror raise a big question One is the question whether the policefailed to act as an intelligence tool in detecting state anticipating and providingimportant information related to the riots in Poso Finally in a period of more thantwo years 2005 2007 most of the terrorists who operated on Sulawesi in generaland in the town of Poso in particular had been uncovered and revealed by Policeintelligence This disclosure raises the question of how police intelligenceuncovered the network This research uses a qualitative approach In depth interview method isused for research data collection Informants as a resource of this research are amember of the police who had served in the police operation in Poso during theconflict and terror Poso in 1998 2007 Other informants are terrorists andcommunity leaders in Poso To answer the research questions this research usestimeline fishbone and wildcard analysis techniques To analyze the intelligence failure the author uses the theory of ThomasCopeland about intelligence failure Antithesis of the theory of Thomas Copelandis used to analyze the intelligence success In this research the authors finallydiscover number of variables intelligence failures and successes in accordancewith the explanation Thomas Copeland on the Policy and Leadership Organization Intelligence Analysis and Perception of Threat Information ]"