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"Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) sedang dihadapkan dengan inflasi yang tinggi setelah beberapa dekade inflasi di Zona Euro mencapai tingkat yang sangat rendah. Hal ini mengharuskan ECB mengambil tindakan moneter, yaitu dengan melakukan pengetatan perekonomian yang menyebabkan ECB menaikkan suku bunganya untuk pertama kalinya setelah 11 tahun. Sebuah studi peristiwa (event study) digunakan untuk mempelajari dampak pengetatan moneter terhadap harga obligasi pemerintah di zona euro. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa pengetatan moneter menyebabkan peningkatan imbal hasil (yield) obligasi pemerintah. Dua regresi digunakan untuk menganalisis faktor pendorong abnormal return imbal hasil obligasi selama pengetatan moneter.

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The European Central Bank (ECB) is being faced by a high inflation after decades of low inflation. This led the ECB to take monetary measures by tightening the economy which induced the ECB to increase its interest rates for the first time after 11 years. An event study was conducted to examine the effects this monetary tightening has on the Eurozone government bond prices. The results of the analyses indicated that the monetary tightening lead to increase in government bond yields. Finally, two regressions were run to analyse the drivers of the abnormal returns of bond yields during the monetary tightening. "

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis premi risiko likuiditas obligasi pemerintah Indonesia pada periode tahun 2005 hingga tahun 2019 dan faktor-faktor determinan yang memengaruhinya. Premi risiko likuiditas dihitung dari selisih antara yield to maturity dan theoretical yield serta rata-rata bid-ask spread dari obligasi tersebut. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis regresi data panel dengan model Random Effect untuk menentukan faktor-faktor determinan dari premi risiko tersebut. Berdasarkan penelitian ini diperoleh hasil bahwa premi risiko likuiditas obligasi pemerintah Indonesia relatif kecil dan dipengaruhi oleh karakteristik obligasi dan kondisi pasar keuangan Indonesia. Jumlah obligasi yang diterbitkan dan besar kupon berpengaruh signifikan negatif terhadap premi risiko obligasi, sedangkan sisa umur obligasi dan umur obligasi berpengaruh signifikan positif terhadap premi risiko obligasi. Obligasi sukuk memiliki premi risiko likuiditas yang lebih besar dibandingkan obligasi konvensional. Dalam keadaan krisis atau pada saat volatilitas pasar keuangan meningkat, premi risiko likuiditas meningkat. Hasil dari penelitian ini diharapkan dapat memperkaya pemahaman tentang risiko likuiditas pada obligasi pemerintah Indonesia yang dapat bermanfaat bagi otoritas fiskal dan moneter dalam mengambil kebijakan dan bagi investor dalam mengambil keputusan investasi.

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This paper aims to analyze the liquidity risk premium on the Indonesian government bonds. There are two liquidity risk premium proxies to be used, they are the difference between the yield to maturity and the theoretical yield of the obligation and the average bid-ask spread of the obligation. The research uses a regression analysis on the Random Effect panel data model to define the determinant factors of the liquidity risk premium. The result of this research shows that the liquidity risk premium of Indonesian government bonds is relatively small, affected by the bond's characteristics and the financial market condition. The determinant factors are bond's age, coupon rate, remaining life, issued amount, type (Sukuk or conventional), and the Indonesian stock market volatility. The researcher expects that the result of this research will enrich the understanding of the liquidity risk on Indonesian government bonds so that it can be used by the fiscal and monetary authorities and also investors in making decisions."

"Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengeksplorasi kointegrasi dan interdependensi dari yield obligasi pemerintah 10 tahun pada negara-negara ASEAN 4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Filipina dan Thailand), India, dan Cina dengan yield obligasi pemerintah AS, Jerman, dan Jepang. Penelitian ini mengaplikasikan model estimasi Vector Autoregression (VAR), Impulse Response Function (IRF), Variance Decomposition (VD) dan Granger Causality Test untuk mengobservasi hubungan dua arah antara variabel-variabel penelitian, dan menggunakan data mingguan dari yield obligasi pemerintah 10 tahun dari setiap negara selama periode penelitian Jan 2007 – Des 2022.Hubungan jangka panjang di estimasi dengan Johansen Cointegration Test. Hasil dari analisis menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat kointegrasi antara yield obligasi pemerintah 10 tahun untuk negara-negara ASEAN 4, India, dan Cina dengan yield obligasi pemerintah AS, Jerman, dan Jepang. Sementara hubungan jangka pendek di estimasi dengan model VAR. Uji kausalitas dengan Granger Causality menunjukkan pola hubungan satu arah antara negara-negara maju terhadap negara-negara berkembang. Melalui uji IRF dan VD dapat dilihat pengaruh yield obligasi negara AS yang cukup kuat terhadap negara-negara berkembang. Temuan pada penelitian ini diharapkan memperkaya penelitian yang fokus dalam meneliti hubungan antar negara, secara khusus penelitian yang berkonsentrasi pada obligasi pemerintah jangka panjang pada negara-ASEAN dan negara maju. Dan memberikan wawasan untuk strategi investasi bagi investor, serta bagi pemerintah dalam penentuan nilai kupon yield sebagai bagian dari kebijakan strategis.

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The purpose of the study is to explore cointegration and interdependency of 10 years government bond yield of ASEAN 4 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), India, and China with global government bond yield of USA, Germany, and Japan. The research applied estimating model of Vector Autoregression (VAR), Impulse Response Function (IRF), Variance Decomposition (VD) and Granger Causality Test to observe two-way relationship between variables and employed weekly data of 10 years government bond current yield of each country during period of Jan 2007 – Dec 2022.

Long-run relationship is assessed with Johansen Cointegration test. The outcome showed that there are no cointegration (long-run relationship) between 10 years government bond yield for ASEAN 4 countries, India, and China with global government bond yield of USA, Germany, and Japan. Short-run relationship estimated with VAR model. Causality test utilizing Granger Causality portrays one way relationship pattern from developed countries to emerging countries. And trough IRF and VD test strong influence of US bond yield toward emerging market countries is discovered.

The finding on this study enriched research that focused on observing relationship between countries, especially research that concentrated on long term government bond for ASEAN countries and developed countries. And the research unlocked insights for investor on their investment strategy as well as for regulator in determining yield coupon as part of strategic policy."

"[ABSTRAKTingginya porsi kepemilikan asing pada Obligasi Negara (ON) domestikdapat meningkatkan likuiditas dan mengurangi biaya pinjaman pemerintah.Namun demikian, hal ini juga menyimpan risiko dalam hal sudden reversal.Penelitian ini mengamati perilaku investor asing di pasar ON domestik denganmempergunakan model vektor auto regresi (VAR). Dua faktor yangmempengaruhi perilaku asing di pasar ON domestik yaitu pull factor atau faktorinternal dan push factor atau faktor eksternal. Hasil temuan dari estimasi VARmenunjukkan bahwa harga minyak, sebagai faktor eksternal, secara positifmenggerakkan arus dana asing.Analisa dari hasil estimasi Impulse Response Function (IRF) menunjukkanbahwa gejolak dari arus dana asing secara negatif saling mempengaruhi yield ON,leading indicator, dan volatilitas nilai tukar, tetapi berpengaruh positif terhadaptingkat suku bunga. Berdasarkan analisa diatas, penelitian ini memiliki implikasikebijakan antara lain perlunya intervensi pemerintah di pasar sekunder melaluibuyback dan debt switch, pemberlakuan minimum holding period, memperkuatfungsi pengawasan dan supervisi, menembangkan kerangka Bond StabilizationFund (BSF), dan mempromosikan obligasi pembiayaan proyek.

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ABSTRACTHigh foreign ownership of domestic government bonds (GB) could generateliquidity and reduce governments? cost of borrowing. However, they also containrisk in the case of sudden reversal. This study investigates the behavior of theforeign investors in the domestic Indonesian GB market by applying the vectorauto regression (VAR) model. There are two factors that could determine foreignbehavior in the domestic GB market, namely pull (or internal) factors and push (orexternal) factors. The finding from the VAR estimation provides evidence that oilprice, as a push factor, positively drives foreign capital flows.Dynamic analysis from the Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that theshock of foreign capital flows negatively respond to GB yield, leading indicator,and exchange rate volatility, and vice versa. However, it has a positive impact oninterest rates and vice versa. Based on its results, this study has important policyimplications, such as government intervention in the secondary market throughbuyback and debt switch, application of a minimum holding period, strengtheningthe control and supervision body, construction of a Bond Stabilization Fundframework, and promotion of project-financing bonds.;High foreign ownership of domestic government bonds (GB) could generateliquidity and reduce governments? cost of borrowing. However, they also containrisk in the case of sudden reversal. This study investigates the behavior of theforeign investors in the domestic Indonesian GB market by applying the vectorauto regression (VAR) model. There are two factors that could determine foreignbehavior in the domestic GB market, namely pull (or internal) factors and push (orexternal) factors. The finding from the VAR estimation provides evidence that oilprice, as a push factor, positively drives foreign capital flows.Dynamic analysis from the Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that theshock of foreign capital flows negatively respond to GB yield, leading indicator,and exchange rate volatility, and vice versa. However, it has a positive impact oninterest rates and vice versa. Based on its results, this study has important policyimplications, such as government intervention in the secondary market throughbuyback and debt switch, application of a minimum holding period, strengtheningthe control and supervision body, construction of a Bond Stabilization Fundframework, and promotion of project-financing bonds.;High foreign ownership of domestic government bonds (GB) could generateliquidity and reduce governments? cost of borrowing. However, they also containrisk in the case of sudden reversal. This study investigates the behavior of theforeign investors in the domestic Indonesian GB market by applying the vectorauto regression (VAR) model. There are two factors that could determine foreignbehavior in the domestic GB market, namely pull (or internal) factors and push (orexternal) factors. The finding from the VAR estimation provides evidence that oilprice, as a push factor, positively drives foreign capital flows.Dynamic analysis from the Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that theshock of foreign capital flows negatively respond to GB yield, leading indicator,and exchange rate volatility, and vice versa. However, it has a positive impact oninterest rates and vice versa. Based on its results, this study has important policyimplications, such as government intervention in the secondary market throughbuyback and debt switch, application of a minimum holding period, strengtheningthe control and supervision body, construction of a Bond Stabilization Fundframework, and promotion of project-financing bonds.;High foreign ownership of domestic government bonds (GB) could generateliquidity and reduce governments? cost of borrowing. However, they also containrisk in the case of sudden reversal. This study investigates the behavior of theforeign investors in the domestic Indonesian GB market by applying the vectorauto regression (VAR) model. There are two factors that could determine foreignbehavior in the domestic GB market, namely pull (or internal) factors and push (orexternal) factors. The finding from the VAR estimation provides evidence that oilprice, as a push factor, positively drives foreign capital flows.Dynamic analysis from the Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that theshock of foreign capital flows negatively respond to GB yield, leading indicator,and exchange rate volatility, and vice versa. However, it has a positive impact oninterest rates and vice versa. Based on its results, this study has important policyimplications, such as government intervention in the secondary market throughbuyback and debt switch, application of a minimum holding period, strengtheningthe control and supervision body, construction of a Bond Stabilization Fundframework, and promotion of project-financing bonds.;High foreign ownership of domestic government bonds (GB) could generateliquidity and reduce governments? cost of borrowing. However, they also containrisk in the case of sudden reversal. This study investigates the behavior of theforeign investors in the domestic Indonesian GB market by applying the vectorauto regression (VAR) model. There are two factors that could determine foreignbehavior in the domestic GB market, namely pull (or internal) factors and push (orexternal) factors. The finding from the VAR estimation provides evidence that oilprice, as a push factor, positively drives foreign capital flows.Dynamic analysis from the Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that theshock of foreign capital flows negatively respond to GB yield, leading indicator,and exchange rate volatility, and vice versa. However, it has a positive impact oninterest rates and vice versa. Based on its results, this study has important policyimplications, such as government intervention in the secondary market throughbuyback and debt switch, application of a minimum holding period, strengtheningthe control and supervision body, construction of a Bond Stabilization Fundframework, and promotion of project-financing bonds.;High foreign ownership of domestic government bonds (GB) could generateliquidity and reduce governments? cost of borrowing. However, they also containrisk in the case of sudden reversal. This study investigates the behavior of theforeign investors in the domestic Indonesian GB market by applying the vectorauto regression (VAR) model. There are two factors that could determine foreignbehavior in the domestic GB market, namely pull (or internal) factors and push (orexternal) factors. The finding from the VAR estimation provides evidence that oilprice, as a push factor, positively drives foreign capital flows.Dynamic analysis from the Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that theshock of foreign capital flows negatively respond to GB yield, leading indicator,and exchange rate volatility, and vice versa. However, it has a positive impact oninterest rates and vice versa. Based on its results, this study has important policyimplications, such as government intervention in the secondary market throughbuyback and debt switch, application of a minimum holding period, strengtheningthe control and supervision body, construction of a Bond Stabilization Fundframework, and promotion of project-financing bonds.;High foreign ownership of domestic government bonds (GB) could generateliquidity and reduce governments? cost of borrowing. However, they also containrisk in the case of sudden reversal. This study investigates the behavior of theforeign investors in the domestic Indonesian GB market by applying the vectorauto regression (VAR) model. There are two factors that could determine foreignbehavior in the domestic GB market, namely pull (or internal) factors and push (orexternal) factors. The finding from the VAR estimation provides evidence that oilprice, as a push factor, positively drives foreign capital flows.Dynamic analysis from the Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that theshock of foreign capital flows negatively respond to GB yield, leading indicator,and exchange rate volatility, and vice versa. However, it has a positive impact oninterest rates and vice versa. Based on its results, this study has important policyimplications, such as government intervention in the secondary market throughbuyback and debt switch, application of a minimum holding period, strengtheningthe control and supervision body, construction of a Bond Stabilization Fundframework, and promotion of project-financing bonds., High foreign ownership of domestic government bonds (GB) could generateliquidity and reduce governments’ cost of borrowing. However, they also containrisk in the case of sudden reversal. This study investigates the behavior of theforeign investors in the domestic Indonesian GB market by applying the vectorauto regression (VAR) model. There are two factors that could determine foreignbehavior in the domestic GB market, namely pull (or internal) factors and push (orexternal) factors. The finding from the VAR estimation provides evidence that oilprice, as a push factor, positively drives foreign capital flows.Dynamic analysis from the Impulse Response Function (IRF) shows that theshock of foreign capital flows negatively respond to GB yield, leading indicator,and exchange rate volatility, and vice versa. However, it has a positive impact oninterest rates and vice versa. Based on its results, this study has important policyimplications, such as government intervention in the secondary market throughbuyback and debt switch, application of a minimum holding period, strengtheningthe control and supervision body, construction of a Bond Stabilization Fundframework, and promotion of project-financing bonds.]"

"Tingkat likuiditas dan Yield to Maturity merupakan dua hal yang sangat penting untuk suatu obligasi, termasuk Surat Utang Negara. Menurut beberapa penelitian, tingkat likuiditas ini berpengaruh terhadap tingkat Yield to Maturity dari suatu obligasi. Ada dua metode untuk mengukur tingkat likuiditas dari suatu obligasi. Pertama metode langsung, yaitu berdasarkan data transaksi, dan yang kedua adalah metode tidak langsung, yaitu berdasarkan karakteristik obligasi atau end-of-day prices. Di dalam penelitian ini, penulis menganalisa pengaruh proxy-proxy pengukuran likuiditas tidak langsung, yaitu usia, on-the-run, dan jumlah penerbitan, terhadap Yield to Maturity dari Surat Utang Negara. Dan penulis menemukan bahwa ketiga proxy ini berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap tingkat Yield to Maturity dari Surat Utang Negara."

"Penelitian yang dilakukan dalam menyusun tesis ini menggunakan metode pendekatan yuridis normatif, yakni mengkaji ketentuan-ketentuan pada peraturan perundang-undangan yang berkaitan dengan rencana penerbitan Obligasi Daerah Pemerintah Provinsi Jawa Barat. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui prosedur penerbitan, kendala dan alternatif penyelesaiannya dalam rencana penerbitan Obligasi Daerah Pemerintah Provinsi Jawa Barat. Peraturan-Peraturan untuk Penerbitan Obligasi Daerah dibuat beradasarkan peraturan pasar modal, dengan berbagai penyesuaian yang diperlukan. Penerbitan Obligasi Daerah Pemerintah Provinsi Jawa Barat adalah untuk memenuhi sasaran misi keempat Pemerintah Provinsi Jawa Barat, yaitu mewujudkan Jawa Barat yang nyaman dengan pembangunan infrastruktur strategis yang berkelanjutan. Rencana penerbitan Obligasi Daerah Pemerintah Provinsi Jawa Barat terkendala mengenai laporan keuangan dan alokasi dana cadangan yang belum ada peraturannya, sehingga diperlukan peraturan tambahan untuk menjadi dasar yang pasti dalam pelaksanaan penerbitan Obligasi Daerah selanjutnya.

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This thesis using legal normative approach research, which examines the provisions of the legislation relating to the issuance of the Regional Bond West Java Provincial Government. The purpose of this study was to determine the procedures for issuing, constraints and alternative settlement in the Regional Bond issuance West Java Provincial Government. Rules for the Issuance of Municipal Bonds made beradasarkan capital market regulation, with the necessary adjustments. Municipal Bond Issuance West Java Provincial Government is to meet the target of the fourth mission of West Java Provincial Government, namely West Java realize comfortable with the sustainable development of strategic infrastructure. Bond issuance plan of West Java Provincial Government is constrained on the financial statements and the allocation of the reserve fund has been no rules, so that additional regulations are needed to be a sure foundation in the implementation of the Regional Bond next."

"Tulisan ini menganalisis bagaimana proses penerbitan serta bentuk tanggung jawab dari akuntabilitas hasil investasi Blue Bond yang diterbitkan oleh Indonesia di Pasar Obligasi Jepang. Tulisan ini disusun dengan menggunakan metode penelitian doktrinal. Blue Bond merupakan suatu obligasi yang berkelanjutan yang menggunakan konsep ekonomi biru, yang termasuk dalam 17 Sustainable Development Goals. Indonesia menerbitkan Blue Bond di Pasar Obligasi Jepang pada tahun 2023 untuk mendukung proyek-proyek yang memperhatikan kelestarian laut dan sumber daya air bersih, sesuai dengan kerangka kerja Republic of Indonesia SDGs Government Securities Framework dan panduan Blue Finance yang diterbitkan oleh ICMA. Penerbitan Blue Bond oleh Indonesia ini dapat menegaskan dukungan Indonesia terhadap sustainable financing mengingat Indonesia sudah pernah menerbitkan green sukuk dalam mata uang USD dan SDGs bond dalam mata uang Euro. Namun, karena Blue Bond diterbitkan di Pasar Obligasi Jepang, penting untuk memastikan bahwa proses penerbitannya sesuai dengan peraturan yang berlaku, seperti Peraturan Menteri Keuangan No. 215/PMK.08/2019 tentang Penjualan dan Pembelian Kembali Surat Utang Negara dalam Valuta Asing di Pasar Internasional. Selain itu, penting juga untuk diketahui mengenai bagaimana bentuk tanggung jawab dari akuntabilitas hasil investasi Blue Bond terhadap para investor. Hal ini penting dilakukan untuk menjaga integritas Indonesia di pasar sustainable financing dunia. Untuk mencapai tujuan ini, Indonesia harus memperkuat akuntabilitas dan menegaskan komitmennya melalui langkah-langkah konkret. Langkah-langkah konkret tersebut antara lain dengan menggunakan framework yang diterima oleh investor, menyusun laporan tahunan, serta melakukan external review. Dengan demikian, memiliki pemahaman mendalam mengenai bagaimana proses penerbitan serta bentuk tanggung jawab dari akuntabilitas hasil investasi Blue Bond yang diterbitkan oleh Indonesia dapat membangun reputasi yang kuat bagi Indonesia dalam komunitas keuangan global sebagai negara yang bertanggung jawab secara ekologis dan berkomitmen terhadap pembangunan berkelanjutan.

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This paper analyzes how the issuance process and the form of responsibility for the accountability of Blue Bond investment returns issued by Indonesia in the Japanese Bond Market. This work was created using doctrinal research approaches. Blue Bond is a sustainable bond based on the blue economy idea, which is incorporated in the 17 Sustainable Development Goals. Indonesia issued a Blue Bond in the Japanese Bond Market in 2023 to support projects that pay attention to marine sustainability and clean water resources, in compliance with the Republic of Indonesia SDGs Government Securities Framework and Blue Finance guidelines issued by ICMA. The issuance of Blue Bond by Indonesia can emphasize Indonesia's support for sustainable financing considering that Indonesia has already issued green sukuk denominated in USD and SDGs bond denominated in Euro. However, since the Blue Bond is issued in the Japanese Bond Market, it is important to ensure that the issuance process is in accordance with applicable regulations, such as the Minister of Finance Regulation No. 215/PMK.08/2019 on the Sale and Repurchase of Foreign Exchange Government Securities in the International Market. In addition, it is also important to know how the responsibility of the accountability of Blue Bond investment returns to investors. This is very important to maintain Indonesia's integrity in the global sustainable financing market. To achieve this goal, Indonesia must strengthen accountability and emphasize its commitment through concrete actions. These concrete actions include following an investor-accepted framework, compiling annual reports, and performing external evaluations. Thus, having an in-depth understanding of how the issuance process as well as the form of accountability for Blue Bond investment returns issued by Indonesia can help Indonesia establish a strong reputation in the global financial community as an environmentally responsible country committed to sustainable development."

"ABSTRAKSetelah periode kiris ekonomi yang melandadunia padatahun 1998, Pemerintah Indonesia memutuskan untuk menutup defisit APBN dengan mengutamakan melakukan pinjaman domestik dibanding melakukan pinjaman luar negeri. Hal ini terbukti dari semakin meningkatnya jumlah outstanding obligasi domestik Pemerintah Indonesia dari tahun ke tahun. Studi ini mencoba untuk memahami tentang determinan makroekonomi obligasi domestik Pemerintah Indonesia. Hal ini diharapkan dapat menjadi sumber referensi bagi Pemerintah Indonesia dalam melakukan pengawasan terhadap yield obligasi domestik Pemerintah Indonesia dan juga mereka dapat menjalankan manajemen utang yang lebih baik. Dengan menggunakan data bulanan dari periode Januari 2005 sampai dengan Desember 2012, hasil-hasil studi ini memperlihatkan bahwa terdapat korelasi yang postif dan signifikan antara VIX Index dan yield dari obligasi domestik Pemerintah Indonesia. Sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa Pemerintah Indonesia harus memberikan perhatian juga terhadap VIX Index bukan hanya saat mereka ingin menerbitkan obligasi mata uang asing Pemerintah Indonesia, tetapi juga saat mereka ingin menerbitkan obligasi domestik Pemerintah Indonesia.

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ABSTRACTAfter the economic crisis of 1998, the Indonesian government was seeing the need to cover the government's budget deficit by borrowing from domestic sources. The outstanding of Indonesian Government domestic bond was increasing from year to year. This study tried to understand the macroeconomic determinants of Indonesian Government domestic bond yield. By using monthly data from January 2005 until December 2012, the results showed that there was positive significant correlation between VIX Index and the yield of Indonesian Government domestic bond. Therefore, Government of Indonesia should give attention to VIX Index not only when they want to issue Indonesian sovereign bond, but also when they want to issue Indonesian domestic bond."

"[ABSTRAKBagi investor, obligasi pemerintah merupakan aset yang cenderung berisiko rendah, namun krisis hutang yang belum lama terjadi di Eropa membuktikan bahwa risiko tersebut sangat mungkin terjadi. Oleh karena itu, investor perlu mengetahui aset yang dijadikan sebagai hedge dan safe haven ketika terjadi penurunan pada perekonomian, khususnya pada pasar obligasi pemerintah Indonesia. Penelitian ini hendak menganalisis kemampuan logam mulia dan logam dasar sebagai instrumen hedging dan safe haven untuk pasar obligasi pemerintah, selama periode 2004-2013. Dengan menggunakan GARCH, penelitian ini menganalisis dua periode krisis, yaitu krisis keuangan dan krisis hutang Eropa, diperoleh bahwa logam mulia lainnya, khususnya perak mampu memberikan perlindungan bagi investor pada penurunan secara mendadak dalam perekonomian dibandingkan emas. Untuk logam dasar, tembaga, aluminium, dan nickel menunjukkan kemampuan yang lebih kuat sebagai safe haven dibandingkan logam mulia. Ditemukan bahwa memegang logam secara individu memberikan perlindungan yang lebih kuat dibandingkan dengan memegang portofolio logam. Terakhir, dengan menganalisis performa logam 20 hari setelah terjadi syok negatif pada harga obligasi, ditemukan bahwa perak merupakan logam yang memiliki performa terbaik.

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ABSTRACT

, Government bond is known to be low risk, but the recent debt crisis has proven that the risk is likely to happen. Therefore, investors have the necessary to know which asset could provide the protection from sudden decrease in the economy, specifically within the Indonesian government bond market. By analyzing 10 different metals during 2004-2013 this research aims to find potential hedging instruments and safe haven assets for the Indonesian government bond market. Using GARCH, this research analyzes two crisis periods, the financial crisis and European debt crisis, it was found that other precious metals, specifically silver, provide greater compensation for the bond market losses than gold. While industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel tend to outperform precious metals as hedge and safe haven at certain times. Also, holding the metals individually will offer a greater protection than in the form of portfolio and within analyzing the performance 20 days after an immediate negative bond price shock, it was shown that silver is the best performing metal within the period.

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"Pembiayaan infrastruktur selama ini berasal dari APBN. Obligasi Negara merupakan salah satu sumber pembiayaan pembangunan infrastruktur. Untuk mengetahui potensi obligasi negara menggunakan metode SWOT dan kendalanya menggunakan metode Analytic Network Process (ANP). Selain itu, analisa kelayakan obligasi negara pada pengembangan Bandara Mutiara - Palu.Hasil penelitian yaitu dari potensi yang ada muncul strategi dengan memanfaatkan jumlah peminat obligasi negara yang sudah ada dan menerbitkan obligasi khusus infrastruktur sedangkan untuk kendala yang paling dominan adalah kendala regulasi (0,302240) dengan rater agrrement sebesar 0,8720. Untuk kelayakan pengembangan Bandara Mutiara - Palu nilai NPV = 142.436.462.579, IRR = 11,11% dan Payback Period selama 15 tahun 6 bulan.

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Infrastructure financing usually comes from the state budget. Government Bonds is one of the sources of financing infrastructure development. To find out the potential for government bonds using SWOT and constraints using the method of Analytic Network Process (ANP). In addition, the feasibility analysis on developing Mutiara - Palu airport with government bonds.

The results is potential that have emerged strategies to use the existing interest of goverment bonds and issuing infrastructure bonds, while for the most dominant constraint is regulatory (0.302240) with rater agrrement of 0.8720. For development feasibility Mutiara - Palu airport value NPV = 142 436 462 579, IRR = 11.11% and Payback Period for 15 years and 6 months."