Hasil Pencarian  ::  Simpan CSV :: Kembali

"Laporan ini merupakan gabungan dari tiga penelitian yang berkelanjutan mengenai metode peramalan inflasi di Australia, yang dianalisis menggunakan pendekatan ekonometrika runtun waktu. Penelitian pertama menggunakan model ARIMA untuk meramalkan inflasi Indeks Harga Konsumen (CPI) di Australia untuk periode 2023Q1 hingga 2024Q4. Penelitian kedua mengeksplorasi dampak dinamis tingkat pengangguran dan suku bunga terhadap inflasi, menggunakan model ARDL dan fungsi respon impuls (IRF). Penelitian ketiga membandingkan model ARIMA dan V AR untuk peramalan inflasi, menilai keakuratan prediksi melalui data observasi. Hasil dari laporan ini menunjukkan bahwa model ARIMA efektif dalam peramalan jangka pendek, sementara model V AR menunjukkan stabilitas yang lebih baik dalam prediksi jangka panjang. Temuan ini memberikan wawasan penting bagi pembuat kebijakan untuk memahami dinamika variabel-variabel makroekonomi dan dampaknya terhadap tingkat inflasi dan kondisi perekonomian.

---

This report is a combination of three consecutive research studies on inflation forecasting methods in Australia, analyzed using a time series econometrics approach. The first study utilizes the ARIMA model to forecast Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in Australia for the period 2023Q1 to 2024Q4. The second study explores the dynamic impacts of unemployment rates and cash rates on inflation, employing ARDL models and impulse response functions (IRFs). The third study compares ARIMA and V AR models for inflation forecasting, evaluating predictive accuracy through observed data. The results indicate that ARIMA models are effective for short-term forecasting, while V AR models exhibit greater stability in long-term predictions. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers to understand the dynamics of macroeconomic variables and their impacts on inflation and the economy condition."

"Penelitian ini membahas eksistensi konvergensi inllasi antar daerah di Indonesia dan mengidentifikasi peranan efek spasial dalam proses tersebut. Pengujian konvergensi terdiri dari tiga jenis yaitu stokastik, sigm4 dan beta. Pengaplikasian teori Phillips Curve pada model konvergensi beta kondisional bertujuan menghindari substantial overestimation. Sementara model Spatial Durbin bertujuan memperhitungkan hubungan spasial yang tidak hanya terdapat pada variabel dependen, tetapi juga terdapat pada variable bebas. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan efek spasial berpengaruh terhadap konvergensi antar propinsi di Indonesia. oleh sebab itu, penyusun menyarankan bahwa efek spasial perlu diikutsertakan dalam perumusan kebijakan baik di tingkat daerah maupun pusat.

---

The focus of this study is the existence of inflation convergence between regions in Indonesia and identiff the role of spatial effects in the process. Three types of convergence to be discussed were stochastic, sigma, and beta. Applied Phillips Curve in conditional beta convergence model aims to avoid substantial overestimation. While Spatial Durbin Model aims to estimate the dependencies in the spatial relationships not only occur in the dependent variable, but also on the independent variable. The result shows that the spatial effects have a vital role in determining the rate of convergence between the provinces in Indonesia. Therefore, the study results suggest that spatial effects should be included in policy formulation at both the local and central level."

"Pemain veto memiliki posisi yang penting dalam proses formulasi kebijakan. Hasil dan proses formulasi kebijakan Fair Work Amendment (Supporting Australia's Jobs and Economic Recovery) Bill 2021 di Australia dan Medida Provisória 1045/2021 di Brazil banyak dipengaruhi oleh aktor politik sebagai pemain veto. Kebijakan Fair Work Amendment (SAJER) Bill 2021 di Australia berhasil diratifikasi menjadi Fair Work Act 2021. Sementara, kebijakan Medida Provisória 1045/2021 di Brazil tidak berhasil diratifikasi menjadi undang-undang. Padahal, Australia dan Brazil memiliki kesamaan pada sistem parlemennya yang bikameral. Terlebih lagi, kedua kebijakan antara Fair Work Amendment (SAJER) Bill 2021 dan Medida Provisória 1045/2021 diajukan oleh pihak pemerintah yang dipimpin oleh Scott Morrison di Australia dan Jair Bolsonaro di Brazil yang notabene dianggap lebih berpihak pada kelompok bisnis. Dengan adanya perbedaan hasil formulasi dari masing-masing kebijakan, tulisan ini berusaha untuk membandingkan peran pemain veto dalam formulasi kebijakan Fair Work Amendment (SAJER) Bill 2021 dan Medida Provisória 1045/2021 dalam parlemen federal Australia dan Brazil. Dengan menggunakan teori pemain veto yang dikemukakan oleh George Tsebelis, tulisan ini menganalisis peran pemain veto dalam proses formulasi kebijakan Fair Work Amendment (SAJER) Bill 2021 di Australia dan Medida Provisória 1045/2021 di Brazil. Penelitian dalam tulisan ini menemukan bahwa pemain veto berperan signifikan dalam formulasi kebijakan Fair Work Amendment (SAJER) Bill 2021 dan Medida Provisória 1045/2021, yang berkontribusi pada perbedaan hasil dari formulasi kedua kebijakan tersebut. Signifikansi peran pemain veto di antara kedua formulasi kebijakan tersebut dilatarbelakangi oleh perbedaan komposisi, preferensi, dan karakteristik pemain veto.

---

Veto players have an important position in the policy formulation process. The results and process of formulating the Fair Work Amendment (Supporting Australia's Jobs and Economic Recovery) Bill 2021 policy in Australia and Medida Provisória 1045/2021 in Brazil are heavily influenced by political actors as veto players. The Fair Work Amendment (SAJER) Bill 2021 policy in Australia was successfully ratified into the Fair Work Act 2021. Meanwhile, Brazil's Medida Provisória 1045/2021 was not successfully ratified into law. In fact, Australia and Brazil have similarities in the parliamentary system which adheres to a bicameral system. Furthermore, the two policies between the Fair Work Amendment (SAJER) Bill 2021 and Medida Provisória 1045/2021 were proposed by the government led by Scott Morrison in Australia and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil which are considered more pro-business groups. Given the differences in the results of the formulation of each policy, this paper attempts to compare the role of veto players in the policy formulation of the Fair Work Amendment (SAJER) Bill 2021 and Medida Provisória 1045/2021 in the federal parliaments of Australia and Brazil. Using the veto player theory put forward by George Tsebelis, this paper analyzes the role of the veto player in the policy formulation process for the Fair Work Amendment (SAJER) Bill 2021 in Australia and Medida Provisória 1045/2021 in Brazil. The research in this paper found that veto players played a significant role in the policy formulation of the Fair Work Amendment (SAJER) Bill 2021 and Medida Provisória 1045/2021, which contributed to the different results of the formulation of the two policies. The significance of the veto player's role between the two policy formulas is motivated by differences in the composition, preferences, and characteristics of the veto players."