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"Tesis ini membahas penerapan metode autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) dalam menentukan cash forecasting. Metode ARIMA dapat mendukung keberhasilan sistem automatic cash pooling yang saat ini digunakan oleh perusahaan. Metode cash forecasting yang saat ini digunakan perusahaan menimbulkan kelebihan dan kekurangan kas. Hal ini menyebabkan inefisiensi bagi perusahaan dengan adanya opportunity cost dan transaction cost. Penelitian ini menyarankan kepada perusahaan untuk menggunakan metode ARIMA dalam menentukan cash forecasting cabang dan dikombinasikan dengan sistem cash pooling yang sudah diimplementasikan saat ini.

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This thesis discusses application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method in determining cash forecasting. ARIMA method is able to support the success of the automatic cash pooling system that currently used by the company. Cash forecasting method used by the company currently has excess cash and cash shortage. It makes inefficiency for the company by raising the opportunity cost and transaction cost. This study recommend to the company to use ARIMA method in determining branches cash forecasting and combines with cash pooling system that has been implemented."

"ABSTRAKStruktur organisasi perusahaan PT. PLN (Persero) saat ini belum mampu menjadikan biaya penyediaan tenaga listrik yang minimum. Secara operasional, Biaya Pokok Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik (BPP) dari tahun ke tahun lebih besar dari harga aktualnya, yang berarti PLN belum efisien secara ekonomi. Dalam disertasi ini dianalisis bagaimana struktur organisasi perusahaan PLN berpengaruh menentukan besar biaya marjinal jangka panjang penyediaan tenaga listrik nasional. Analisis efisiensi ekonomi usaha penyediaan tenaga listrik, diperoleh dengan membandingkan biaya marjinal jangka panjang dengan harga aktualnya. Selama periode penelitian, terjadi in-efisiensi ekonomi pada usaha penyediaan tenaga listrik, dimana harga aktual lebih besar dari biaya marjinal jangka panjang, sehingga pada tahun tersebut telah terjadi over pricing.Permasalahan didekati dengan menggunakan kerangka minimisasi biaya, dimana masing-masing wilayah/sistem kelistrikan PLN dianggap meminimumkan biaya dalam menghasilkan suatu tingkat output tertentu sebagaimana Pasay, et al (1994). Dengan menggunakan fungsi biaya diperoleh bahwa fungsi biaya translog baik pada pembangkitan, transmisi dan distribusi tenaga listrik maupun dalam konteks integrasi vertikal mengikuti fungsi produksi yang bersifat non-homotetik dan dibuktikan bahwa integrasi vertikal menurunkan biaya marjinal jangka panjang usaha penyediaan tenaga listrik serta timbulnya biaya transaksi yang tinggi ketika pembangkit tenaga listrik merupakan fungsi usaha yang terpisah dari transmisi dan distribusi tenaga listrik, berdasarkan uji separabilitas.Biaya marjinal jangka panjang penyediaan tenaga listrik semakin membesar yang diakibatkan karena penurunan Produktifitas Marjinal Faktor Produksi Kapital (MPK) dan penurunan Produktifitas Marjinal Faktor Produksi Tenaga Kerja (MPL) yang bernilai negatif, walaupun Produktifitas Marjinal Faktor Produksi Bahan Bakar (MPF) selama periode penelitian menunjukkan kecenderungan semakin meningkat, yang mengindikasikan adanya perbaikan efisiensi penggunaan bahan bakar.Bila ditinjau terhadap alokasi faktor produksi, kondisi efisien secara ekonomi dapat ditempuh melalui:- memperbesar Produktifitas Marjinal Faktor Produksi Bahan Bakar (MPF), dengan meningkatkan efisiensi penggunaan bahan bakar;- memperbesar Produktifitas Marjinal Faktor Produksi Tenaga Kerja (MPL), dengan mengurangi tenaga kerja yang tidak produktif serta dengan meningkatkan kompetensi karyawan.Laju pertumbuhan produktivitas usaha penyediaan tenaga listrik jangka panjang merupakan fungsi biaya jangka panjang pengurangan perubahan teknologi, pengaruh skala, pengaruh dari pemanfaatan kapasitas, dan pengaruh dari susut jaringan. Laju tingkat produktivitas pembangkit tenaga listrik dan transmisi dan distribusi tenaga listrik selama periode penelitian bernilai negatif, mengindikasikan adanya penurunan produktivitas. Namun demikian, dalam konteks integrasi vertikal, laju tingkat produktivitas penyediaan tenaga listrik menunjukkan kecenderungan semakin meningkat (adanya technological economies). Disamping itu, dalam penelitian ini ditunjukkan bahwa model kerjasama pembelian tenaga listrik swasta mampu meningkatkan laju tingkat produktivitas jangka panjang penyediaan tenaga listrik.

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ABSTRACT

Organizational structure of electricity suupply business of the PT. PLN (Persero) has not been able to make the minimum cost of electricity supply. Operationally, the True Cost of Supply from year to year is greater than the actual price, which means that PLN has not been economically efficient. This dissertation analyzes how PLN?s organizational structure determines the long-run marginal cost of the national electricity supply. The economic efficiency analysis of electricity supply business is obtained by comparing the long-run marginal cost with actual price. During this research, economic inefficiency occurred in the electricity supply business, where the actual price is greater than the long-run marginal cost which resulted in over pricing.

Problem of the study is approached by using a cost minimization framework, where each region / PLN electricity system is considered to minimize the cost in producing a given level of output as Pasay, et al (1994). By using the cost function, it is obtained that the translog cost function in the generation, transmission as well as distribution of electricity and also in the context of vertical integration follow production function which is non-homotetic and it is proved that vertical integration lowers the long-run marginal cost of electricity supply business as well as the emergence of high transaction costs when the power generationt is a separate business function of the transmission and distribution of electricity, based on separability test.

Long-run marginal cost of electricity supply keeps growing. It is caused by the declining of Marginal Productivity Factor of Capital (MPK) and a decrease in Marginal Productivity of Labor (MPL) which is negative, although the Marginal Productivity of Fuel (MPF) tend to increase, which indicated an improvement of fuel efficiency during the study period.

If the allocation of production factor is reviewed, economic efficiency condition can be reached by:

- extending the Marginal Productivity of Fuel (MPF) by increasing fuel efficiency;

- extending the Marginal Productivity of Labor (MPL) by reducing unproductive labor and by increasing competence among employees.

The long-run total factor productivity in electricity supply business is a function of the long-run cost reduction of technological change, scale effects, the effect of capacity utilization and the effect of losses. The long-run total factor productivity of power generation, transmission and distribution of electricity throughout the study period is negative, which indicate a decrease in productivity. However, in the context of vertical integration, the long-run total factor productivity of electricity supply showed increasing trend (the presence of technological economies). In addition, this study indicates that the model power purchase of Independent Power Producers (IPP) are able to increase the rate of long-run total factor productivity of electricity supply.

JEL Classification: C29 C39 D23 D24 D42 L94."

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