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Abstrak :
Industri biodiesel berbasis minyak kelapa sawit masih menjadi kandidat terkuat dalam pemenuhan strategi diversifikasi energi dalam bentuk bahan bakar nabati. Pemerintah mengeluarkan kebijakan dengan menargetkan pencampuran solar dengan biodiesel mencapai 20% dari setiap liter biosolar yang dijual pada tahun 2025. Kebijakan ini akan menciptakan pasar bagi biodiesel sehingga diharapkan mampu menarik investasi industri biodiesel, menghasilkan bauran energi berkelanjutan yang lebih baik, meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi, menciptakan lapangan kerja, dan berkontribusi positif kepada lingkungan hidup. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan sebuah model kebijakan sebagai media diskusi terhadap potensi dampak positif dan tantangan dari berbagai macam studi akan dampak negatif dari kebijakan ini. Model yang dibangun dengan pendekatan sistem dinamis dan akan mensimulasikan dua tingkat kebijakan: mikro pada tingkat perusahaan dan makro pada tingkat negara. Hasil dari model menunjukkan adanya saling pengaruh antara aspek energi dengan tiga aspek keberlanjutan: ekonomi, sosial dan lingkungan. Penelitian ini juga menguji dua skenario utama yang diharapkan dapat membangkitkan kembali ketertarikan investasi pada industri biodiesel yang saat ini mengalami gejala kelesuan. ......Indonesia's palm-oil based biodiesel is still the prime candidate for Indonesia's energy diversification strategy to renewable energy in the form of biodiesel fuel. The government has created a mandatory market by targeting 20% blend of biodiesel in all diesel fuel in 2025. In theory, this new market could induce the growth of palm-oil based biodiesel industry as an extension to the already mature palm oil industry. This would result in the development of the biodiesel industry, better renewable energy mix, boost economic growth, create jobs, and at the same time would help environment. These results cover all three aspects of sustainability pillars: economy, social and environment. However, all these perceived positive impacts are also challenged by various studies on the negative impacts of palm oil and biodiesel industry. Therefore, this research aims to develop an integrated multi level model as a tool to capture the complexity and obtain a more comprehensive understanding of the interrelationship dynamics. The model development is based on system dynamics approach. The model results shows that there is visible a tradeoff on energy, socio-economic growth and environmental impact. Given that the current policy is not working, this research evaluates two plausible scenarios on how to restart the development of the biodiesel industry and achieve the biodiesel production target set by the government.

Abstrak :
Dalam memenuhi komitmen penurunan gas rumah kaca secara nasional yang dikenal sebagai Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) sebanyak 29% (tanpa bantuan) dan 41% (dengan bantuan luar negeri) di tahun 2030, Pemerintah Indonesia menggunakan sebuah model komputer berbasis pendekatan sistem dinamis untuk menyimulasikan kontribusi sektoral terhadap perkembangan pembangunan rendah karbon di Indonesia. Model ini merupakan upaya untuk menjadikan pembangunan yang menghasilkan emisi karbon yang rendah di Indonesia menjadi arus utama pembangunan di Indonesia. Model yang berupa model multi-sektoral yang kompleks dengan menggunakan pendekatan sistem dinamis. Untuk memberikan evaluasi teknis akademik terhadap model ini sekaligus untuk melakukan penajaman apakah model mampu memenuhi kebutuhan perencanaan nasional, maka serangkaian analisis model, lokakarya, pelatihan dan diskusi dilakukan untuk beberapa keluaran. Pertama, menghasilkan kerangka kerja analisis yang mencakup berbagai elemen penting dalam proses validasi model dalam pendekatan pemodelan sistem dinamis. Kedua, Evaluasi model berdasarkan kerangka ini menghasilkan beberapa rekomendasi untuk memperjelas struktur endogen model serta mempertimbangkan untuk menyederhanakan model untuk memudahkan penyebarluasan model. Ketiga, berupa rancangan dan pelaksanaan uji coba lokakarya untuk mengajarkan konsep pengambilan keputusan berbasis model. ......In order to fulfill the commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions as stated in the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) by 29% (without international support) and 41% (with international support) in 2030, the Government of Indonesia developed a system dynamics model to simulate each development sectors contribution to this target. The model is part of mainstreaming efforts to use low-carbon development initiatives in Indonesia, especially for planning and evaluation. It consists of complex multi-sectoral submodules using the system dynamics approach. Therefore, to increase its acceptance, the model needs to be technically validated. Through desk analysis, interviews, workshops, and discussions, the final deliverables included frameworks for analysis, model analysis results, and workshop design to introduce the model to the public. The framework of analysis is based on the principles of validation used by the systems dynamics approach. Model evaluation results show several recommendations to increase the endogeneity aspects of the model and develop a simpler model for knowledge transfer. The workshop design and prototyping were conducted to introduce the concept of model-based decision-making.

Abstrak :
The focus of this research is to analyze potential environmental impact in the supply chain of palm oil biodiesel industries. Simple Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is applied to analyze impacts, produced by the three main units in the supply chain of Palm-Oil-based Biodiesel, which are Palm Plantation, CPO mill, and Biodiesel Plant. We developed LCA calculation model using spreadsheet software, used to assess a number of input scenarios to evaluate the best scenario, in variation of: land quality, land area and the rate of clearing, land clearing technique and type of the original land. The biggest potential environmental impact is the contribution to global warming impact which emissions are produced mostly from unit plantation. Although plantation has biggest potential to contribute to environmental impact, it also gives biggest reduction to global warming impact. In general, the biggest environmental impact in the LCA category is climate change, followed by photo-oxidant formation and eutrophication. The biggest impacts in the supply chain are from the plantation, especially when choosing the right technique for land clearing. In addition, due to LCA linearity nature, the scenario that we tested does not change the total accumulative environmental impacts.

Abstrak :
Cities are facing ever greater challenges regarding climate change. Urban governments and policymakers have taken such challenges into account when maintaining urban development momentum. Although the city government of Jakarta has implemented several initiatives to reduce emissions, assessments of the impact of these strategies on the sustainability of the urban system remain limited. This paper investigates the evaluation of two mitigation scenarios for reducing Jakarta’s greenhouse gases that differ in the authority level of the local government, using a policy analysis approach. The method emphasizes the use of the system dynamics model to gain insights into each option. The results reveal that the city’s development goals would be best achieved through joint partnership with the national government. Such cooperation would have a more significant effect on economic, social, and environmental sustainability than would be in the case in other scenarios.

Abstrak :
The development of a water supply system requires a high investment cost, and financial, environmental, and institutional aspects need to be considered. As major projects involving many stakeholders, drinking water supply projects become vulnerable to risks. A risk-based analysis is required to reduce the likelihood of failure in both the operational and financial aspects of such projects. This study describes the process of risk management planning for a drinking water supply system construction project in South Bali. The case study is based on the project risk management method with the value at risk to calculate the impact of risks in project investment. The purpose of this study is to obtain a financial risk model that maps potential risk factors and calculates the financial impact of risks on the project. This is used to create alternative strategies to reduce the impact of risks on investment made during the development of the project. The analysis showed that of the three priority risk factors, production capacity has the greatest influence on the net present value of the project.