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"This paper builds a regional macroeconomic model of DKI Jakarta and attempts to analyze the impacts of declining DAU revenues on the overall DKI Jakarta economy. The model uses microeconomic foundations, consists of four blocks, and is made up by 48 behavioral equations and 23 identities. The model adapts Doubinis? Chicago Metropolitan Area econometric model with some modifications. Two Stage Least Squares Methods are employed to estimate both parameters and prediction power of the model. There are two scenarios designed for forecasting, first, the scenarios of constant DAU of Rp 773,02 billion, and second, the scenario of 20% DAU decline. Comparing the constant and the declining DAU scenarios, the DAU decline does affect the growth of manufacturing sector and its number of employment, government investments, expenditures, and revenues, and the overall regional economy. However, this decline does not affect the activities in the non-manufacture sector and its employment, local government taxes and charges, and private consumptions and investments. Even though it affects the regional economy but the negative impact on growth is still less than 20%. "

"Tesis ini membentuk model makroekonomi regional DKI Jakarta dan rnelihat dampak penurunan penerimaan DAU terhadap perekonomian DKI Jakarta. Model makroekonomi regional ini menggunakan landasan ekonomi mikro dan terdiri atas empat blok, yaitu blok manufaktur, blok nonmanufaktur, dan blok keuangan daerah dan PDRB. Model yang diterapkan diadaptasi dari model ekonometri regional untuk wilayah metropolitan Chicago yang dibuat oleh Doubinis (1981). Model ini terdiri atas 48 persamaan perilaku dan 23 persamaan identitas.Dalam blok manufaktur, perrnintaan output sektor manufaktur dipengaruhi oleh variabel local activity level. Sedangkan penawarannya dipengaruhi oleh kapital/modal dan tenaga kerja. lni merupakan fondasi mikroekonomi yang digunakan dalam skema makroekonomi. Tenaga kerja dipengaruhi oleh upah dan tenaga kerja di sektor yang bersangkutan seoara nasional.Dalam blok nonmanufaktur, permintaan output sektor nonmanufaktur dipengaruhi oleh PDRB (menurut lapangan usaha) dan tingkat harga. Penawarannya dipengaruhi oleh nilai tambah sektor tersebut pada periode yang lalu dan tenaga kerja. Sementara tenaga kerja dipengaruhi oleh tingkat upah dan tenaga kerja secara nasional.Dalam blok keuangan daerah, pajak daerah sangat dipengaruhi oleh sektor nonmanufaktur, kecuali konstruksi; dan sektor manufaktur. Retribusi daerah dipengaruhi oleh retribusi periode lalu, dan sektor nonmanufaktur. Dalam blok PDRB, konsumsi RT dipengaruhi oleh PDRB. Investasi swasta dipengaruhi oleh tingkat bunga dan PDRB. Investasi pemerintah dan pengeluaran pemerintah dipengaruhi oleh penerimaan pemerintah.Data yang digunakan adalah data runtun waktu untuk periode 1978-1998 yang telah dipublikasi oleh Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Pengolahan dilakukan dengan menggunakan program komputer Eviews dengan metode TSLS. Indikator daya prediksi dari model makroekonomi regional ini menunjukkan statistical fit yang baik sehingga dapat digunakan untuk melakukan peramalan ke depart, yaitu tahun 1999-2004. Ada 2 skenario yang digunakan, yaitu skenario DAU konstan sebesar Rp 773,02 milyar dan DAU menurun sebesar 20% pada tahun 2003 dan 2004. Penurunan pemberian DAU mempengaruhi pertumbuhan sektor manufaktur dan tenaga kerjanya, investasi pemerintah, pengeluaran dan penerimaan pemerintah, dan perekonomian daerah; tetapi tidak mempengaruhi kegiatan di sektor nonmanufaktur dan tenaga kerjanya, penerimaan pajak daerah dan retribusi, serta pengeluaran konsumsi dan investasi swasta. Meskipun mempengaruhi pertumbuhan kegiatan ekonomi daerah, penurunan pertumbuhan ini diperkirakan jauh lebih kecil daripada penurunan DAU yang sebesar 20%."

"The economic crises attacking Asian regions in the mid of 1997 have brought depressing impacts to Indonesia'a economy. Indonesia experiences a declining share of investment it is even the lowest amongst neighboring countries. Indonesia also ranks the first position in the issue of inefficiency which further discourages investors to invest in indonesia. The study focuses on the issue of efficiency in the manufacturing industry whose shore in the economy tends to increase during 1983-2005 to a higher percentage than in the agriculture and services sectors. The objectives of the study are two-folds, first is to measure the score of efficiency in the manufacturing industry in order to identify which in industries are classified as efficient, moderately efficient, or less efficient. Secondly is to identify whether there is on association between input factor or output degree of protection and the score of inefficiency of a 5-digit'-ISIC industry. The method employs in the study is the stochastic production frontier where efficiency is an explicit function of specifically determining factors. The study finds that wood preservative industry has the highest efficiency score, while garment and textile industry has the lowest. The study also discovers there are more industries with less and moderately efficient classification. Sources of inefficiency are from the high output tariffs, which have potential contributions to high price and less competitive products in the market. The study recommends that manufacturing industries with low scores of efficiency should improve their productivities through lower cost of production. The government has to snake effort to reduce tariff for finished goods. Taxes on luxurious goods and duty charges for export oriented industries should be eliminated as on alternative to increase efficiency in the manufacturing industry. Comparative advantages, particularly for linkage industries, should be improved."

"The economic crises attacking Asian regions in the mid of 1997 have brought depressing impacts to Indonesia?s economy. Indonesia experiences a declining share of investment? it is even the lowest amongst neighboring countries. Indonesia also ranks the first position in the issue of inefficiency which further discourages investors to invest in Indonesia. The study focuses on the issue of efficiency in the manufacturing industry whose share in the economy tends to increase during I988-2OO5 in a higher percentage than in the agriculture and services sectors. The objectives of the study are two-folds, first is to measure the score of efficiency in the manufacturing industry in order to identify which in industries are classified as efficient, moderately efficient, or less efficient. Secondly is to identify whether there is an association between input factor or output degree of protection and the score of in efficiency of a 5-digit-JSIC industry. The method employs in the study is the stochastic production frontier where efficiency is an explicit function of specifically determining factors. The study finds that wood preservative industry has the highest efficiency score, while garment and textile industry has the lowest. The study also discovers there are more industries with less and moderately efficient classification. Sources of inefficiency are from the high output tariffs, which have potential contributions to high price and less competitive products in the market. The study recommends that manufacturing industries with low scores of efficiency should improve their productivities through lower cost of production. The government has to make effort to reduce tariff for finished goods. Taxes on luxurious goods and duty charges for export oriented industries should be eliminated as an alternative to increase efficiency in the manufacturing industry. Comparative advantages, particularly for linkage industries, should be improved."