Hasil Pencarian  ::  Simpan CSV :: Kembali

"Parallel market exchange rate has a very important role in the economy. The definition of Parallel market or Black market is buying or selling of products and commodities, or engaging in exchange of foreign currencies in violation of government restriction. The purpose of this illegal transaction is usually to avoid the tax government imposes on the transactions. The crucial thing parallel plays in the economy is that it influences both the domestic transaction, through which the domestic monetary system works, and the international transaction, which led to the inequilibrium of balance of payment. There are many causes which stimulate the emergence of demand and supply of parallel market foreign exchange. Widespread trade restrictions and foreign exchange controls have resulted in inefficient patterns of resource use and led to the emergence of parallel markets in goods and foreign currency in many developing countries. The evidence collected over the past few years has shown that current account restrictions (including import licences, foreign exchange allocations, and import deposit requirements) create incentives for illegal transactions, such as smuggling and fake invoicing, as well as capital flight and capital inflows via unofficial channel. This paper examines the implication of the existence of illegal trade transactions and parallel currency markets for short-run policymaking in Indonesia, using a macroeconomic model that incorporates currency substitution features and forward-looking rational expectations. By using the Agenor model, a type of simultaneous-equation simulation model, and the two-stage least square method to estimate the parameter of the model, we found that parallel market for foreign exchange is statistically significant in Indonesia. It is shown that the existence of parallel market influences the economic structure and the adjustment process on the policy shock government imposes on. It is shown econometrically that the macroeconomic model used in this study is stable and valid. It means that the model is able to explain the presumed phenomenon quite satisfactorily. Therefore, this model can be used as an alternative approach to simple macroeconomic model building, which incorporating the parallel market exchange rate phenomenon. In addition, this model is also developed incorporating the fully anticipated policy, or rational expectation, and currency substitution features."

"Presiden Joko Widodo mengumumkan keputusan untuk memindahkan Ibukota Negara Indonesia dari Jakarta ke Kalimantan Timur melalui media pada 26 Agustus 2019, seminggu setelah peringatan Hari Kemerdekaan Indonesia ke-74. Akan ada pembangunan bangunan baru secara besar-besaran untuk menjalankan fungsi kepemerintahan di ibukota baru. Maka, terdapat kesempatan bagi perusahaan Indonesia di sektor properti. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa kehadiran abnormal return yang positif pada perusahaan di sektor properti yang terdaftar pada bursa saham Indonesia. Terdapat 23 perusahaan yang dievaluasi. Kami menggunakan 26 Agustus 2019 sebagai hari peristiwa dengan periode 10 hari sebelum dan 10 hari sesudah tanggal tersebut. Kami menggunakan Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test dan Paired-T Test untuk menganalisis data. Secara mengejutkan, kami menemukan abnormal return positif namun insignifikan 1 hari saja setelah pengumuman. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa tidak cukup bukti untuk menyimpulkan bahwa para investor merespon secara positif terhadap pengumuman relokasi ibukota. Selain itu, ditemukan juga indikasi atas dugaan kebocoran informasi mengenai pengumuman pemindahan Ibukota sejak 3 hari sebelum hari pengumuman. Meski begitu, masih diperlukan kejelasan apakah temuan ini disebabkan oleh kota yang dipilih sebagai ibukota baru atau dikarenakan faktor lainnya.

---

President Joko Widodo announced the decision to relocate the Capital City of Indonesia from Jakarta to Eastern Kalimantan throughout the media on August 26th 2019, a week after the 74th Anniversary of Indonesia's Independence Day. There will be a large construction of new buildings to carry out government functions in the new capital. Thus, there is a new opportunity for Indonesian firms in the property sector. This study aims to analyze whether there is a positive abnormal return on companies in the property sector listed on the Indonesian stock exchange. There are 23 companies evaluated. We use 26th Agustus 2019 as the event day with 10 days window period before and 10 days period after the date. We use the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test and Paired-T Test method to analyze the data. Surprisingly, we found a insignificantly positve abnormal return just 1 day after the announcement. This finding indicates that there is not sufficient evidence to conclude that investors respond positively to capital city reallocation announcements. Moreover, we also found an indication of information leakage of the announcement 3 days prior to the announcement date. However, there is unclear whether this finding is due to the city chosen as the new capital city or due to other factors."