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"Inflasi merupakan suatu indikator yang sangat penting dalam pembangunan ekonomi suatu negara. Pencapaian inflasi rendah merupakan prasyarat bagi tercapainya sasaran makroekonomi lainnya, seperti pertumbuhan ekonomi dan penyediaan lapangan kerja yang seluas-luasnya. Pemilihan kestabilan harga sebagai sasaran akhir kebijakan moneter dilatarbelakangi oleh realita bahwa inflasi yang tinggi menimbulkan dampak negatif dan ketidakstabilan bagi perekonomian. Tinjauan teoritis dan empiris menunjukkan bahwa inflasi dipengaruhi oleh variabel-variabel dalam permintaan aggregat, penawaran aggregat, faktor luar negeri, faktor ekspektasi serta jumlah uang beredar.Penelitian ini bertujuan mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor apa raja yang mempengaruhi inflasi di Indonesia, selama periode tahun 1988 - 2002, dengan menggunakan model ekonomi makro struktural skala kecil. Berdasarkan determinan pokok pembentuk inflasi, maka faktor ekspektasi inflasi dan inflasi impor mempunyai pengaruh besar terhadap inflasi di Indonesia, sementara pengaruh faktor output gap relatif kecil. Faktor ekspektasi inflasi lebih ditentukan oleh inflasi inersia daripada target inflasi, serta inflasi impor lebih dipengaruhi oleh depresiasi nilai tukar yang menunjukkan besarnya pengaruh langsung (direct pass-through effect) dan nilai tukar ke inflasi. Secara keseluruhan signifikansi variabel-variabel moneter, seperti suku bunga SBI, nilai tukar rupiah, dan uang beredar, dalam persamaan simultan ekonomi makro menunjukkan cukup berpengaruhnya fenomena moneter dalam mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi di Indonesia.Sehubungan dengan dominannya faktor ekspektasi inflasi dan faktor inflasi impor, maka kebijakan moneter perlu diarahkan pula pada upaya stabilisasi nilai tukar rupiah untuk meminimalkan dampak fluktuasinya, serta perluasan komunikasi target inflasi dan pencapaian target inflasi yang telah ditetapkan. Dari sisi kebijakan fiskal, perlu peningkatan alokasi pengeluaran Pemerintah untuk sektor produktif, agar dampaknya pada permintaan agregat dan pertumbuhan ekonomi, nyata.

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Inflation is a very important indicator in economic development. Attainment of low inflation is a prerequisite to reaching other macroeconomic targets, i.e. economic growth and employment. The choice of price stability as final target of monetary policy is based on by the reality that high inflation may generate negative impact and instability toward the economy. Empirical and theoretical evidences indicate that inflation is influenced by variable of aggregate demand, aggregate supply, foreign factor, expectation and money supply.

This research aims are to identity any factors that influencing inflation in Indonesia, during the period 1988 - 2002, by using small scale structural macro model. Based on fundamental determinant of inflation, we obtain that expected inflation factor and import inflation factor contribute the most to the inflation in Indonesia, whereas output gap has a small impact. Expected inflation is more determined by the inertia inflation rather than inflation target, and imported inflation is more influenced by the exchange rate depreciation, that showing direct influence or direct pass-through effect from exchange rate to inflation. In whole, monetary variables i.e. SBI, exchange rate, and money supply are significant in macro economic stimulant equation, this shows that monetary phenomenon has enough effect in influencing economic growth and inflation in Indonesia.

Since the expected inflation and imported inflation are the dominant factors, monetary policy is important to be directed to maintain the exchange rate stabilization, for the minimize of fluctuation effect, and because the inflation target is not significant to influence inflation, extensive communications of inflation target is indeed mandatory. From fiscal policy point of view, needs to it increase the government expenditure."

"There are several factors influencing the financial system stability, namely the internal and the external factors. The occurrence of stock price volatility internationally, the contagion effects and the spillover effects are some external factors that have effect on the financial system stability. This research aims to know the dynamic relationship of regional and global stocks market in international financial system, and then do the analysis of the occurrence of contagion effects and spillover effects on stock price, and see their influence on domestic economics, monetary policy and financial system stability, by GARCH-VAR model.The results of this research indicate that there are some domination of the mature financial market to regional and domestic market. Moreover, the nearby regional stock price index also have a big contribution to the movement of other regional stock price market. The impact of stock price volatility to the IDR exchange rates volatility is relatively small, but not to the price level which is significantly large. Data analysis shows that there is contagion effects in stock market, but the spillover effect from stock price volatility to exchange rates volatility does not occur."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan analisis komparasi krisis Asia dengan krisis keuangan global dalam aspek pola penularan (contagion, interdependence) dan spillover, baik secara intra dan inter asset price serta analisis respons kebijakan moneter. Pola penularan diestimasi dengan menggunakan model DCC-GARCH dari data harian, sedangkan analisis spillover dan respons kebijakan dimodelkan dengan menggunakan Global VAR (GVAR) dengan data bulanan. Periode analisis dari Januari 1995 sampai dengan Maret 2018. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan terdapat persamaan dan perbedaan pola penularan antara krisis Asia dengan krisis keuangan global.Beberapa persamaannya adalah; (i) perambatan shock intra asset price lebih besar dibandingkan inter asset price, (ii) terjadi common cycle yaitu penularan krisis cenderung terjadi dalam periode yang pendek dan berulang, (iii) terjadi interdependence pada nilai tukar, serta (iv) dari dua periode krisis, nilai tukar Rupiah mengalami depresiasi paling tajam diantara mata uang negara ASEAN. Adapun perbedaan dari kedua krisis adalah; (i) pada krisis Asia, terjadi interdependence intra asset price pada suku bunga O/N, nilai tukar, serta interdependence terbatas pada indeks saham, kemudian terjadi juga interdependence semua asset price intra ASEAN. Pada nilai tukar, terjadi common trend intra ASEAN yaitu mengalami pergerakan searah dalam jangka panjang, kecuali dengan SGD tidak terjadi. (ii) Pada krisis keuangan global terjadi asimetri interdependence pada nilai tukar, dimana Interdependence negative yang terjadi sebelum GFC (mata uang ASEAN menguat dalam tahun 2005-2007) lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan interdependence positif yang terjadi saat krisis keuangan global, (mata uang ASEAN mengalami depresiasi). (iii) Pada krisis Asia, suku bunga O/N memiliki degree of co-movement paling besar baik intra dan inter asset price, juga intra ASEAN. Sementara pada krisis keuangan global nilai tukar menunjukan co-movement paling besar. Terdapat pertalian yang kuat antara nilai tukar dengan indeks saham, namun shock nilai tukar mempunyai efek yang lebih besar dan bertahan dalam jangka panjang. (iv) Diantara variabel riel, inflasi menerima efek limpahan paling besar pada kedua krisis, namun pada krisis Asia efeknya lebih eksplosif. Penurunan GDP saat krisis Asia lebih banyak disebabkan efek limpahan dari public debt, sementara pada krisis keuangan global oleh nilai tukar. (v) Respons kebijakan moneter Tight Money Policy pada krisis Asia lebih efektif dalam jangka panjang (1-2 tahun), sementara itu respons kebijakan stabilisasi pada krisis keuangan global lebih efektif dalam jangka pendek.

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A financial crisis that occurs in one country can easily spread to other countries and become a global financial disaster in a short time. This study aims to conduct a comparative analysis of the Asian crisis with the global financial crisis in terms of contagion, interdependence and spillover effect, both intra and inter asset prices, as well as an analysis of monetary policy responses. The pattern of contagion was estimated using the DCC-GARCH model from daily data, while the spillover analysis and policy response were modeled using Global VAR (GVAR) with monthly data. The analysis period is from January 1995 to March 2018. The results show that there are similarities and differences in transmission patterns between the Asian crisis and the global financial crisis.

Some of the similarities are; (i) intra-asset price shock propagation is greater than inter-asset price, (ii) common cycle occurrence, i.e. crisis transmission tends to occur in short and repeated periods, (iii) exchange rate interdependence, and (iv) from two crisis periods , the Rupiah experienced the sharpest depreciation among ASEAN currencies. The differences between the two crises are; (i) in the Asian crisis, there was interdependence of intra asset prices on O/N interest rates, exchange rates, and limited interdependence on stock indices, then there was also interdependence of all intra ASEAN asset prices. In the exchange rate, there is a common intra-ASEAN trend that is experiencing the same direction of movement in the long term, except that SGD does not occur. (ii) In the global financial crisis, interdependence asymmetry occurred in exchange rates, where the negative interdependence that occurred before the GFC (the ASEAN currency strengthened in 2005-2007) was smaller than the positive interdependence that occurred during the global financial crisis, (the ASEAN currency experienced a depreciation. ii) During the Asian crisis, the O/N interest rate had the highest degree of co-movement, both intra and inter asset prices, as well as intra ASEAN. Meanwhile, during the global financial crisis, the exchange rate showed the largest co-movement. There is a strong relationship between the exchange rate and stock indices, but exchange rate shocks have a larger effect and persist in the long term. (iv) Among real variables, inflation received the largest spillover effect in the two crises, but in the Asian crisis the effect was more explosive. The decline in GDP during the Asian crisis was mostly due to spillover effects from public debt, while in the global financial crisis it was caused by the exchange rate. (v) The monetary policy response of the Tight Money Policy to the Asian crisis was more effective in the long term (1-2 years), while the stabilization policy response to the global financial crisis was more effective in the short term."