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"This book emerged out of international conferences organized as part of the AAAI Fall Symposia series, and the Swarmfest 2017 conference. It brings together researchers from diverse fields studying these complex systems using CAS and agent-based modeling tools and techniques. In the past, the knowledge gained in each domain has largely remained exclusive to that domain. By bringing together scholars who study these phenomena, the book takes knowledge from one domain to provide insight into others.Most interesting phenomena in natural and social systems include constant transitions and oscillations among their various phases – wars, companies, societies, markets, and humans rarely stay in a stable, predictable state for long. Randomness, power laws, and human behavior ensure that the future is both unknown and challenging. How do events unfold? When do they take hold? Why do some initial events cause an avalanche while others do not? What characterizes these events? What are the thresholds that differentiate a sea change from a non-event?Complex adaptive systems (CAS) have proven to be a powerful tool for exploring these and other related phenomena. The authors characterize a general CAS model as having a large number of self-similar agents that: 1) utilize one or more levels of feedback; 2) exhibit emergent properties and self-organization; and 3) produce non-linear dynamic behavior. Advances in modeling and computing technology have led not only to a deeper understanding of complex systems in many areas, but they have also raised the possibility that similar fundamental principles may be at work across these systems, even though the underlying principles may manifest themselves differently."

"Cargo plays a very important role in the aviation industry as a supporting revenue. In Airline X, cargo supports the revenue by 4% - 6% of the total revenue. There are opportunities to optimize the cargo compartment in Airline X by analyzing every agent involved in the purpose to know the optimum cargo loaded into the compartment using Agent-Based Modelling. The method used in this research is Rejection Sampling in Monte Carlo and Agent-Based Modelling. In addition, the theory used in this research is distribution function, to determine what type of distribution that represents the agent behavior. The final result shows that with the predetermined number of iterations, which is 300 iterations, the optimal value was obtained base on the convergent result. On the other hand, the distribution of passenger and baggage described as the Gaussian Distribution Function, while the distribution of EBT described as the Negative Exponential Distribution Function. These distributions represent agent behavior."

"Bencana banjir dan tanah longsor merupakan ancaman serius bagi wilayah Indonesia, terutama di Desa Cihanjuang, Kabupaten Sumedang, Jawa Barat yang rawan terhadap kedua bencana tersebut. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan simulasi jalur evakuasi untuk menganalisis kepadatan dan efektivitas jalur evakuasi banjir dan tanah longsor di Desa Cihanjuang dengan menggunakan metode agent based modeling (ABM) dan variabel people in pixel. Metode ABM dipilih karena kemampuannya dalam menangkap fenomena yang muncul, memodelkan interaksi individu dengan lingkungan, serta memberikan estimasi jumlah penduduk yang lebih akurat. Penelitian menggunakan data primer berupa jalur evakuasi, simulasi penduduk, data demografi, dan jaringan jalan. Data diolah dengan menggunakan perangkat lunak Netlogo dan ArcGIS untuk memodelkan pergerakan agen (penduduk) menuju jalur evakuasi dengan mempertimbangkan variabel usia, jenis kelamin, moda transportasi (pejalan kaki dan kendaraan bermotor). Dua skenario evakuasi dibandingkan dengan variasi lokasi fasilitas evakuasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan terjadinya kepadatan jalur evakuasi disebabkan oleh jumlah penduduk dan jumlah atau tempat evakuasi yang kurang terdistribusi dengan baik. Dengan menerapkan dua skenario tersebut terbukti dapat mengurangi kepadatan jalur evakuasi dan meningkatkan efektivitas evakuasi. Pada skenario b dengan lebih banyak fasilitas evakuasi memiliki efektivitas yang lebih tinggi dengan rata-rata waktu evakuasi 24.8 menit untuk evakuasi bencana banjir dan 6.6 menit untuk bencana tanah longsor, dibandingkan 30.8 menit evakuasi pada bencana banjir dan 15.6 menit evakuasi bencana tanah longsor pada skenario a. Skenario dengan lebih banyak fasilitas evakuasi yang tersebar menunjukkan efektivitas yang lebih tinggi, dengan waktu evakuasi yang lebih singkat baik untuk bencana banjir maupun tanah longsor.......Floods and landslides pose serious threats to regions in Indonesia, particularly in Cihanjuang Village, Sumedang Regency, West Java, which is highly susceptible to both disasters. This study aims to simulate evacuation routes to analyze the density and effectiveness of evacuation paths for floods and landslides in Cihanjuang Village using agent-based modeling (ABM) and the People in Pixel (PiP) variable. ABM was chosen for its ability to capture emergent phenomena, model individual interactions with the environment, and provide more accurate population estimates. The research utilizes primary data, including evacuation routes, population simulations, demographic data, and road networks. The data were processed using NetLogo and ArcGIS software to model the movement of agents (residents) towards evacuation routes, considering variables such as age, gender, and mode of transport (pedestrians and motor vehicles). Two evacuation scenarios were compared, with variations in the locations of evacuation facilities. The results indicate that evacuation route congestion is caused by the number of residents and poorly distributed evacuation points. Implementing the two scenarios demonstrated that congestion could be reduced and evacuation effectiveness increased. Scenario B, with more evacuation facilities, showed higher effectiveness, with an average evacuation time of 24.8 minutes for flood evacuation and 6.6 minutes for landslide evacuation, compared to 30.8 minutes for flood evacuation and 15.6 minutes for landslide evacuation in Scenario A. The scenario with more widely distributed evacuation facilities proved to be more effective, with shorter evacuation times for both floods and landslides."

"ABSTRAKSebagai Negara penghasil Minyak Kelapa Sawit CPO tertinggi di dunia, Indonesia menggunakan CPO sebagai bahan baku biodiesel. Sejumlah kebijakan telah dirancang pemerintah Indonesia untuk mendorong pemanfaatan alternatif energi biodiesel. Namun pemanfaatan alternatif energi tersebut menghadapi permasalahan yang kompleks yang mempengaruhi pertimbangan badan usaha penyalur biodiesel untuk menjual biodieselnya di Indonesia. Untuk menghindari permasalahan tersebut, simulasi pemodelan berbasis agen dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi dampak kebijakan terhadap aktor-aktor di dalam bisnis proses untuk mendapatkan pengertian yang mendalam terkait perilaku serta keputusan yang dibuat oleh badan usaha penyalur. Penelitian ini mengevaluasi kebijakan pemerintah dengan melihat adopsi badan usaha penyalur biodiesel dalam tender yang dijalankan oleh badan usaha pemerintah dengan intervensi dari tiga opsi kebijakan pemanfaatan energi biodiesel dengan mengembangkan model berbasis agen. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan penambahan kapasitas terpasang pabrik biodiesel memberikan dampak yang baik dalam meningkatkan adopsi serta meningkatkan kompetisi yang terjadi dalam tender. Namun pemerintah harus mempertimbangkan biaya yang harus dikeluarkan dan keuntungan dari badan usaha penyalur agar pemenuhan target produksi biodiesel dapat berhasil.

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ABSTRACT

As the world rsquo s largest Crude Palm Oil CPO producer, Indonesia uses CPO as a raw material for biodiesel. A number of policies have been designed by Indonesian government. However, the use of energy alternatives faced complex problems. To avoid such problems, agent based modeling simulations can be used to predict the impact of policies on the actors in the business process to gain a deep understanding of the behavior and decision making by the vendors. This study evaluates government policy by looking at the adoption of biodiesel suppliers in a tender run by government agency with the intervention of three policy options biodiesel energy utilization by developing an agent based model. The simulation results show that the policy of adding the biodiesel plant installed capacity has a good impact in increasing the adoption and competition that occurs in the tender. However, the government should consider the costs to be incurred and the profits from the vendors, so the biodiesel production targets can be successfully fulfilled."