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Abstrak :
The world population, as well as Indonesia, is aging and this demographic transition influences saving, investment, and capital flows. By looking at data from 1973 to 2017, this paper finds two things. First, the relationship between age groups and saving exhibits the inverted U-shape, but only old dependency impact negatively on investment based on 104 countries data. The capital flows represented by current account is deficit in the young dependency, but surplus in the old dependency. Second, demographic transition in Indonesia induced an increase in savings by a higher rate than investment and caused current account surplus in this period. ......Dunia dan juga Indonesia menghadapi aging population dan perubahan demografis ini mempengaruhi tabungan, investasi, dan aliran modal. Berdasarkan data dari 1973 hingga 2017, tesis ini menemukan dua hal, Pertama, hubungan antara kelompok umur dan tabungan memperlihatkan bentuk punuk, tetapi hanya kelompok usia tua yang berpengaruh negatif terhadap investasi berdasarkan data 104 negara. Aliran modal yang direpresentasikan oleh neraca transaksi berjalan mengalami defisit pada kelompok usia muda tetapi surplus pada kelompok usia tua. Kedua, Perubahan demografis di Indonesia menyebabkan kenaikan pada tabungan dengan lebih tinggi daripada kenaikan pada investasi dan juga menyebabkan surplus pada neraca transaksi berjalan selama periode ini.

Abstrak :
We analyze the role of both permanent and temporary factors in affecting the Indonesian current account and real exchange dynamics before and after 2000. Adopting Lee and Chinn (1998; 2006) approach as well as Chinn et al. (2007), two results stand out. First, we confirm that the behavior of the real exchange rate has altered since 2000. Identifications show that permanent shocks are the primary causes for the movement of the real exchange rate after 2000, while in the period before 2000, the Indonesian real exchange rate changes are characterized by greater dominance of temporary shocks. The apparent change in the real exchange rate behavior may be strongly justified by the implementation of free-floating exchange rate system since August 1997. Second, the shift of the real exchange rate behavior after 2000 does not necessarily affect the current account dynamics. Empirical evidence confirms that the variance of current account post 2000 remains largely due to temporary shocks. Albeit having increasing influence, permanent shocks have insignificant effect in explaining fluctuations of the current account. In this sense, the current account surplus after 2000 is attributed largely to nominal variables such as price increase, while the impact of productivity improvement is still limited.

Keywords: Current Account; Real Exchange Rate; Asian Crises 1997/1998 Abstrak Kami menganalisa peranan faktor permanen dan temporer dalam memengaruhi neraca berjalan dan dinamika nilai tukar mata uang riil Indonesia sebelum dan setelah tahun 2000. Mengadopsi pendekatan Lee dan Chinn (1998; 2006) serta Chinn et al. (2007), telah diperoleh dua kesimpulan. Pertama, kami mengonfirmasi bahwa pola nilai tukar mata uang riil telah berubah sejak tahun 2000. Identifikasi menunjukkan bahwa shock permanen adalah penyebab utama pergerakan nilai tukar mata uang riil setelah tahun 2000, sedangkan di periode sebelum tahun 2000 perubahan nilai tukar mata uang riil dicirikan oleh dominansi shock temporer. Perubahan pola nilai tukar mata uang tersebut dapat berakar dari penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas sejak Agustus 1997. Kedua, perubahan pola nilai tukar mata uang setelah tahun 2000 tidak serta merta memengaruhi dinamika neraca berjalan. Bukti empiris mengonfirmasi bahwa variansi neraca berjalan setelah tahun 2000 tetap disebabkan utamanya oleh shock temporer. Meskipun menunjukkan peningkatan pengaruh, shock permanen memiliki pengaruh yang tidak signifikan dalam menjelaskan fluktuasi neraca berjalan. Atau dalam kata lain, surplus neraca berjalan setelah tahun 2000 dapat diatribusikan kepada variabel nominal seperti kenaikan harga, sedangkan pengaruh peningkatan produktivitas masih cenderung terbatas.

Abstrak :
Current account deficit is a common phenomenon in Indonesia. In most years, during the period of 1979-1997, Indonesia experienced current account deficit. Despite the deficit can be solved through foreign direct investment and foreign loan, caution has to be taken to avoid negative effects of the deficit current account, especially on the national economy. Government efforts in order to solve problems of current account deficit can't rely only on funds from abroad. Some factors influencing deficit current account have to be investigated and dealt with seriously in order for the government to issue policy that will help them achieve the target. This research aimed to examine the determinant factors that influenced fluctuation of current account deficit in Indonesia from I979 to1997. The research employed co-integration model and error correction model (ECM) that had been currently popular in econometric analysis, especially to estimate short run dynamic relationship and long run static relationship. The result of this research revealed that fluctuation in real effective exchange rate and foreign incomes were variables that significantly influenced the current account deficit fluctuation in Indonesia, either both short-run and Iong run. When the value of rupiah weakens against the value of foreign currencies (depreciation), the current account deficit decreased. On the other hand, deficit current account and foreign incomes has negative relationship, that is an increase in foreign incomes reduced the current account deficit. The deficit in government budget was another variable affecting the current account deficit, especially in the short-run. The research pointed out that during the study period, deficit on government budget worsened current account position in Indonesia.

Abstrak :
Current account balance has an important role of measuring the direction and the amount of international loan. This study analyzes Indonesian external balance due to its solvency condition of external debt and sustainability of current account balance during 1970{2007 by intertemporal-model approach of current account. The results of cointegration test and bivariate autoregressive (VAR) indicate that solvency condition holds, but not for the sustainability condition of current account balance. It means that Indonesia has capability to payback its external debt.

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Dalam hubungannya dengan utang luar negeri, transaksi berjalan mempunyai peranan penting karena mengukur arah dan besarnya pinjaman internasional. Tulisan ini menganalisis mengenai keseimbangan eksternal Indonesia dengan melihat pada solvency condition atas utang luar negeri dan sustainabilitas neraca transaksi berjalan dengan pendekatan intertemporal model of current account. Data yang digunakan adalah time series tahunan periode 1970--2007. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa solvency condition Indonesia terpenuhi, artinya Indonesia berada dalam kemampuan membayar kembali utangnya, namun kondisi sustainabilitas neraca transaksi berjalan tidak tercapai.

Abstrak :
Penelitian dilakukan untuk mengetahui respon dinamis transaksi berjalan apabila defisit anggaran meningkat tiba-tiba melalui jalur nilai tukar dan suku bunga menggunakan data Indonesia periode 2000Q1-2013Q4 dengan model Struktural Vektor Autoregression (SVAR). Penelitian juga ingin mengetahui dampaknya terhadap PDB riil. Berdasarkan Impulse Response Function (IRF) diperoleh hasil bahwa respon transaksi berjalan atas shock defisit anggaran tidak kuat, perubahan berada pada kisaran 0,04%-0,07%. Tidak ditemukan Twin Deficits Hyphotesys dalam perekonomian Indonesia pada periode tersebut. Respon suku bunga naik dan kecil serta memerlukan tiga periode untuk memperoleh apresiasi nilai tukar. Respon PDB terhadap peningkatan defisit anggaran negatif. Berdasarkan Forecast Error Decomposition Variance (FEDV) diperoleh hasil bahwa perubahan transaksi berjalan sangat dipengaruhi pertumbuhan PDB. Pengaruh shock defisit anggaran terhadap perubahan transaksi berjalan relatif kecil.

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The study was conducted to determine the dynamic effects of budget deficits distubances on current account deficit through interest rate and exchange rate using data of Indonesia in 2000Q1-2013Q4 with Structural Vector Autoregression model. The impact on real GDP also to be learned. Result of Impulse Response Function (IRF) is that the effects of shock on current account deficit is not strong, the range are between 0.04% and 0.07%. Twin Deficits Hyphotesys is not found in the Indonesia?s economy during this period. Response of interest rates is increasing and not strong. There is need three-periods to get exchange rate appreciation. Response of GDP is negative. Using Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEDV) is obtained that the current account changes greatly influenced by GDP.