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"This study search for proper models to forecast Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) and then compare their forecasts. The stock index from strong markets, like Dow Jane Industrial Average (DJIA) and NIKKEL as well as the index from regional markets, like SEI are expected to have strong influences on JCI. More specyfcally, it is expected that SET will be able to explain the realocation of short term fund from Thailand to indonesia through capital market due to unfavour political situation in Thailand. Other than that, exchange rate is also expected to have eject on JCI movements, By using the daily data from January 3, 2005 to January 2, 2006, the stuajzfound that the proper models to be used to forecast JCI are GARCH (22) Model and ARIM4 (1,1,0) Model. The empirical results showed that the forecast from ARIM4 Model is superior to that of GARCH Model."

"Tesis ini membahas pengaruh dari empat indeks saham (variabel bebas), yaitu: DJIA(Amerika), DAX (Jerman), NKY (Jepang) dan FSSTI (Singapore) terhadap JCI (Indonesia) sebagai variabel terikat. DJIA mewakili Indeks saham global sementara DAX, NKY dan FSSTI mewakili indeks saham regional. Hipotesa: Pengaruh ke-4 variabel bebas tersebut terhadap JCI diperkirakan signifikan pada periode krisis subprime mortgage di AS dan krisis surat utang di UE. Analisis ini menggunakan metodologi uji korelasi, uji regresi OLS dan uji kausalitas Granger. Hasil yang diperoleh ternyata dalam kedua periode pengujian, hanya DJIA dan FSSTI yang berpengaruh signifkan terhadap JCI.

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This thesis analyzes the influence of the four stock indices (independent variables): DJIA (USA), DAX (Germany), NKY (Japan) and FSSTI (Singapore) to JCI (Indonesia) as the dependent variable. The DJIA represents global stock index while DAX, NKY and FSSTI represent regional stock indices. Hypothesis: All of independent variable would influence the independent variables significantly in the period of the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the USA and debt crisis in the EU. This analysis uses correlation test methodology: OLS regression test and Granger causality test. The results show that only DJIA and FSSTI influence JCI significantly on both period tests."