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Abstrak :
Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian yang bertujuan untuk meneliti bagaimana spillover nilai tukar mata uang di antara dua belas negara maju dan berkembang di dunia. Penelitian ini menggunakan data dari tahun 2017 hingga tahun 2022 untuk melihat perspektif spillover dalam tiga jangka waktu yaitu sebelum, saat, dan setelah pandemi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat peningkatan indeks spillover imbal hasil dari sebelum, saat, hingga setelah pandemi berlangsung. Sedangkan, indeks spillover volatilitas meningkat pada saat pandemi berlangsung dan kembali menurun setelah pandemi ......This research is a study that aims to examine how currency exchange rates spillover between twelve developed and developing countries in the world. This study uses data from 2017 to 2022 to capture at the spillover perspective in three timeframes, namely before, during and after the pandemic. The results of the study show that there has been an increase in the return spillover index before, during and after the pandemic took place. Meanwhile, the volatility spillover index increased during the pandemic and decreased again after the pandemic.

Abstrak :
It is interesting to pay attention on exchage rate phenomenon. The movement of exchange rate has fret up space for the expanded model and their new variety based on theoretical and methodological issues. We apply the zone target model to explain the exchange rate movement in Indonesia during 1989-2002 in monthly basis data. We put special attention to the expectation process of the agent by confronting adaptive and rational expectation and also internalize the risk factor into the model. We found that rational expectation fit and much more be able to explain the exchange rate movement, risk averse agent and massive outflow of capital during the crisis in Indonesia. We test the robustness of our model by applying to VAR model, and the same result is conformed. This VAR specification also support the contagion effect hypothesis during the cirisis 1998.

Abstrak :
This study concerns about how much economic factors have impact on real exchange rate equilibrium and how much exchange rate misalignment occurs. The objective is to find the level of real exchange rate equilibrium before and during the crisis. Real exchange rate equilibrium is founded from Behavioral Equilibrium Excange Rate approach. From regression estimation we will find real exchange rate equilibrium, which will compared with actual real exchange rate. The result is real exchange rate misalignment or deviation of real exchange rate from its equilibrium level.

Abstrak :
ABSTRACT
This study tests for a long-run relation between oil prices and the rupiah US dollar exchange rate. We discover, first, that the long-run cointegration relation between oil prices and the real exchange rate (RER) is sensitive to different exchange rate regimes in Indonesia. Second, we find a long-run cointegrating relation between oil prices and the RER over the float exchange rate regime. However, in the managed float period, there is no evidence of a long-run relation between oil prices and the RER. In the long run, higher oil prices lead to an appreciation of the rupiah against the US dollar in the float period (post-August 1997 period). We demonstrate that these results are robust to different data frequencies.

Abstrak :
Nilai tukar dipercaya memiliki pengaruh signifikan dalam perekonomian Indonesia. Dengan asumsi tersebut, maka pengetahuan mengenai kondisi makro ekonomi dan mikrostruktur pasar valas menjadi sangat penting bagi pembuat kebijakan. Penelitian ini, difokuskan pada analisis kondisi mikrostruktur pasar valas Indonesia dan dampaknya terhadap fluktuasi nilai tukar Rupiah. Namun, mengingat selama periode penelitian (2008-2013) terdapat beberapa potensi structural break, maka selain mengaplikasikan metode uji ko-integrasi, VECM, Granger Causality, dan Impulse Response Function, serta OLS untuk mengkonfirmasi hasil penelitian, juga akan digunakan metode Zivot-Andrews dan Gregory-Hansen, serta uji BLUE. Hasil penelitian menunjukan seluruh metode yang digunakan memberikan hasil yang konklusif, bahwa permintaan valas korporasi domestik, suplai valas investor asing dan sentiment regional Asia signifikan mempengaruhi volatilitas nilai tukar Rupiah, Lebih lanjut, permintaan valas korporasi domestik merupakan faktor dominan yang mendorong Rupiah terus terdepresiasi, sehingga sangat dibutuhkan bauran kebijakan untuk memperbaiki kondisi tersebut. ...... The exchange rate is believed to have significant influence in Indonesia's economy. With that assumption, the knowledge of the macro-economic conditions and the microstructure of the foreign exchange market is becoming very important for policy makers. This study, focused on the analysis of the microstructure of foreign exchange market conditions in Indonesia and its impact on the fluctuation of the Rupiah exchange rate. However, given during the study period (2008-2013) there are several potential structural break, then in addition to applying the method of cointegration test, VECM, Granger Causality and Impulse Response Function, as well as OLS to confirm the results of the research, the method will also be used Zivot-Andrews and Gregory-Hansen, and BLUE test. The results showed all the methods used provide the conclusive results, that the domestic corporate demand for US Dollar, the supply of US Dollar from foreign investors and Asian regional sentiment significantly affect the fluctuation of the Rupiah exchange rate. Furthermore, the demand of US Dollar from domestic corporations is the dominant factor driving the rupiah continued to depreciate, so that the policy mix is needed to improve the condition.

Abstrak :
Pengaruh perubahan nilai tukar terhadap perekonomian Indonesia menjadi topik menarik sejak terjadi krisis nilai tukar rupiah pada tahun 1997 yang telah menyebabkan keseimbangan internal semakin parah. Hal ini tercermin dari melonjaknya inflasi dari 5,17% pada tahun 1996/1997 menjadi 34,22% pada akhir tahun anggaran 1997/1998 (BI, 1998). Melemahnya nilai tukar telah menyebabkan kenaikan yang tinggi pada harga barang-barang yang mengandung komponen impor. Pada sisi fiskal, depresiasi rupiah yang tajam telah mengakibatkan pengeluaran pemerintah meningkat. Keterkaitan antara nilai tukar dan inflasi akan semakin jelas ketika terjadi perubahan sistem nilai tukar dari sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali (managed floating exchange rate) ke sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas (freefloating exchange rate). Inflasi mengalami trend kenaikan yang lebih tajam ketika diberlakukan free floating exchange rate sejak kuartal kedua tahun 1997. Fluktuasi inflasi juga lebih tampak ketika periode free floating exchange rate dibandingkan periode sebelumnya. Inflasi tampak mempunyai trend menurun ketika terjadi penguatan nilai tukar rupiah pada kuartal pertama tahun 1999. Kenyataan lain akibat depresiasi rupiah adalah adanya kontraksi output ketika sistem nilai tukar yang dipakai free floating exchange rate. Depresiasi rupiah yang tajam terjadi setelah penerapan free floating exchange rate dibarengi dengan adanya kontraksi output Indonesia. Depresiasi rupiah mengakibatkan barang-barang modal yang dibutuhkan industri dalam negeri mengalami lonjakan harga. Keadaan ini membuat perusahaan mengurangi kapasitas produksi barang yang mempunyai kandungan impor tinggi. Penurunan kapasitas produksi inilah yang menandai telah terjadi kontraksi output. Dengan demikian depresiasi rupiah telah menyebabkan terjadinya penurunan output. Model yang akan digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah VECM untuk melihat keterkaitan antara nilai tukar terhadap inflasi dan output dan peranan kebijakan nilai tukar terhadap inflasi dan dampak penerapan kebijakan nilai tukar terhadap output pada krisis tahun 1997/1998 dan krisis tahun 2008. Alasan menggunakan metode VECM untuk melihat dampak nilai tukar terhadap inflasi dan output baik dalam jangka pendek maupun dalam jangka panjang. ......Effect of exchange rate changes on the Indonesian economy has been a hot topic since the exchange rate crisis in 1997 that has led to increasingly severe internal balance. This is reflected in the soaring inflation of 5.17% in 1996/1997 to 34.22% at the end of fiscal year 1997/1998 (BI, 1998). The weakening of the exchange rate has led to a high rise in the price of goods that contain imported components. On the fiscal side, the sharp depreciation of the rupiah resulted in increased government spending. The linkage between the exchange rate and inflation will be more apparent when there is a change of the exchange rate system from managed floating exchange rate to a free floating exchange rate system. Inflation experienced a sharper upward trend when applied free floating exchange rate since the second quarter of 1997. Fluctuations in inflation are also more visible when the period of free floating exchange rate compared to the previous period. Inflation appears to have a downward trend in the event of strengthening the exchange rate in the first quarter of 1999. Another fact due to the depreciation of the rupiah is a contraction of output when the exchange rate system used free floating exchange rate. Sharp depreciation occurred after the adoption of free floating exchange rate coupled with a contraction of output in Indonesia resulting depreciation of capital goods needed domestic industry experienced a surge in prices. This situation makes the company reduce production capacity of goods that have a high import content. The decline in production capacity is what marks the output contraction has occurred. Thus depreciation has led to a decrease in output.

Abstrak :
This paper analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate and stock market in Jakarta,Singapore,malaysia,Thailand,Philippine and Hongkong using high frequency data.....

Abstrak :
The relationship between exchange rate volatility and export performance has been scrutinized by many economists since Bretton Wood System collapsed in 1971. Although most of the results show that there is a negative relationship between exchange rate volatility and export performance, we also find that some studies show a positive one. This study used some Indonesian group of commodities data to find the relationship between exchange rate volatility and export performance. While General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) was used to calculate exchange rate volatility. this study used Pesharan & Shin ARDL cointegration test in order to find long run relationship between export performance and exchange rate volatility. Only 2 out of 7 equations tested show a long run relationship between exchange rate volatility an export performance and the signs are positive.