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Abstrak :
Berbeda dengan studi sebelumnya yang berfokus pada pengaruh pemilihan umum terhadap belanja anggaran, studi ini berfokus pada perbedaan perilaku  belanja anggaran antara daerah yang memiliki petahana yang memutuskan untuk maju kembali pada pilkada 2015 dengan daerah di mana petahana sudah menjalani dua periode. Asumsi yang digunakan pada studi ini adalah para petahana yang maju kembali seringkali mencoba memaksimalkan pengaruh mereka agar terpilih kembali, sementara petahana yang sudah tidak dapat mencalonkan diri kembali akan bertindak lebih konservatif. Studi ini menggunakan metode OLS untuk menganalisa perilaku oportunistik daerah terkait penggunaan anggaran daerah yang kepala daerahnya dapat maju kembali dan yang tidak dapat maju kembali pada pemilihan kepala daerah secara serentak tahun 2015 di 237 kabupaten/kota. Untuk itu, studi ini menganalisa kebijakan fiskal kepala daerah melalui pos-pos pengeluaran tertentu yang diduga dapat menarik simpati pemilih seperti total belanja daerah, belanja investasi, serta anggaran diskresi baik secara total maupun detil yang terdiri dari belanja hibah, belanja bantuan sosial, dan belanja bantuan keuangan. Hasil yang diperoleh menunjukkan bahwa secara umum tidak terdapat perbedaan perilaku belanja antara daerah yang memiliki petahana yang maju kembali dalam pemilukada dan yang sudah dua periode kecuali pada komponen belanja hibah. Di daerah di mana petahana dapat dipilih kembali dan memutuskan untuk ikut pemilukada kembali, belanja hibah cenderung lebih tinggi pada tahun dilaksanakannya pilkada. Selain itu, pada kabupaten/kota tersebut, semakin tinggi pengeluaran hibah pada tahun sebelum pilkada disertai oleh penurunan anggaran hibah pada tahun pilkada. ......Unlike other studies that focus on election time effect on budget spending, this study focuses on the difference in spending policy behavior between regions that have eligible incumbent and decide to re-run in the 2015 election and regions that have the last period incumbent. Hypothetically, incumbents who seek to gain electoral support have opportunity and power to enhance their re-election prospect by increasing their targeted expenditures in the times leading to the election time, while the last term period incumbents will act oppositely. OLS cross-sectional data used to analyze politicians’ behavior on fiscal spending policy. We try to find whether re-running eligibility leads them to behave differently compared to lame ducks in 237 municipalities. The level of targeted expenditures to attract voters we use in this study are budget total spending, investment spending, and discretionary funds, both as aggregate, and as disaggregated funds which consisting  grants aid, social assistance expenditures, and financial aid. In general, the results obtained shows that there is no difference behavior between regions that have re-running incumbent and regions that have last period incumbent except in grant subcomponent. Compared to regions that had lame ducks, grant expenditure tends to be higher on election year in regions that have re-running incumbent. Also, the higher grant expenditure in a year before election, the lower grant expenditure during election year in those regions.

Abstrak :
After the issuance of the Constitutional Court Decision No.33 / PUU-Xlll / 2015 as the cancellation of the ban on dynastic politics, a number of candidates from the incumbent's relatives advanced in the direct Pilkada and mushroomed up to the 2020 regional elections. The occurrence of kinship politics is not only seen in terms of regulation, but the rise of kinship politics is also due to problems in political parties in carrying out the political recruitment function. This study seeks to analyze the findings of the online media reported in Kompas and Tempo. This study uses qualitative methods and uses Nvivo 12 Plus in processing data. In this study, it is explained that the factors for the formation of dynastic politics from online media coverage of Kompas dominantly explains the recruitment of political parties which are less democratic, while Tempo online media dominantly explains that the supporting factors for the formation of kinship politics are party recruitment, family support, and weak legal rules. In addition, the impact of kinship politics from the analysis of Kompas online media reports is the creation of corrupt behaviour and damaging the bureaucratic order. Meanwhile, the impact of kinship politics from the analysis of Tempo online media is the decline in the quality of democracy and damage to the structure of the party. This type of research used in this research is qualitative research. The analysis used in this paper is descriptive analysis. Analysis was performed using the Nvivo 12 plus software.