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Abstrak :
ABSTRACT
Penelitian ini akan mengkaji secara komprehensif mengenai Analisis Pengaruh Ramadan terhadap Determinan Inflasi Indonesia dengan periode dari 2009-2016. Peninjauan determinan ini akan dibahas berdasarkan dua sudut pandang yakni dari sisi penawaran dan sisi permintaan. Data dari dua sisi ini kemudian dilihat bagaimana keduanya membentuk inflasi pada Indeks Harga Produsen IHP dan Indeks Harga Konsumen IHK , yang akan menjadi bahan analisa untuk melihat pengaruh Ramadan terhadap determinan tersebut dengan menggunakan metode VAR dan ARMA. Temuan dalam penelitian ini menghasilkan bahwa determinan inflasi IHP dapat lebih dijelaskan dengan oil price dan food price, serta nilai IHP sebelumnya. Sedangkan determinan inflasi IHK lebih dipengaruhi oleh faktor-faktor dari sisi permintaan. Berkaitan dengan pengaruh Ramadan, Ramadan signifikan berpengaruh terhadap peningkatan harga pangan global dan IHK terutama pada harga konsumen yang berkaitan dengan barang pokok seperti bahan makanan, minuman dan makanan olahan, serta sandang. Dengan demikian Ramadan lebih berpengaruh terhadap IHK, sehingga mencerminkan lonjakan harga terjadi pada tingkat eceran.

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ABSTRACT
This research will comprehensively examine with regards to the analysis of Ramadan rsquo s impact towards Indonesia rsquo s inflation determinants for the period between 2009 and 2016. These determinants of inflation will be further two different perspectives, which are cost push inflation and demand pull inflation. This will be followed by examining how the two sides cost push and demand pull inflation may shape inflation on Producer Price Index PPI and Consumer Price Index CPI , which will then be used as the analytical tools to assess the impact of Ramadan towards the determinants of inflation using methods of VAR and ARMA. Findings from this research suggests that the determinants of inflation in PPI can be explained by the fluctuations in oil price and food price, as well as the previous PPI rsquo s value. On the other hand, CPI rsquo s determinants of inflation is explained by factors arising from the demand pull inflation. Pertaining to the impact of Ramadan , Ramadan is evident to be significant towards the rise in global food price and CPI, mainly for consumer rsquo s prices that deals with primary goods such as food ingredients, drinks, processed foods and clothing. In conclusion, Ramadan has greater impact towards CPI, which is reflected in the price spike at a retail level.

Abstrak :
Penelitian ini menjelaskan dampak kredibilitas Bank Sentral terhadap inflasi di Indonesia. Dampak kredibilitas Bank Sentral dianalisis pada tingkat produsen maupun konsumen. Untuk mengukur kredibilitas Bank Sentral, penelitian ini menggunakan indeks kredibilitas bernilai 0 (zero credibility) hingga 1 (perfect credibility). Metode Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) digunakan untuk menganalisis dampak kredibilitas Bank Sentral terhadap inflasi. Berdasarkan hasil empiris, kredibilitas Bank Sentral cenderung lebih memengaruhi inflasi pada Indeks Harga Produsen (IHP) dibandingkan Indeks Harga Perdagangan Besar (IHPB) dan deflator Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB). Kredibilitas Bank Sentral lebih memengaruhi inflasi inti dibandingkan dengan inflasi umum. Dari hasil empiris diketahui bahwa kredibilitas Bank Sentral lebih memengaruhi inflasi pada sisi produsen dibandingkan konsumen. ......This study is intended to explain the impact of central bank credibility on inflation in Indonesia at the producer and consumer level. In this study, Central Bank Credibility is measured using an index with values between 0 (zero credibility) and 1 (perfect credibility). Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) method is used to analyze the impact of central bank credibility on inflation. Based on the results, central bank credibility can reduce inflation on both producer and consumer price. Central bank credibility is more sensitive towards producer price index compared to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) deflator and wholesale price index while at the consumer level, central bank credibility is more sensitive towards core inflation compared to headline inflation.

Abstrak :
[ABSTRAK
Indonesia merupakan salah satu produsen terbesar komoditas kakao biji di dunia. Hal ini menandakan bahwa kakao biji merupakan salah satu komoditas terpenting bagi Indonesia. Karenanya, pemerintah perlu menjaga stabilitas produksi dari komoditas terserbut. Selanjutnya, peran penting dari komoditas kakao biji ditandai dengan besarnya share ekspor dari komoditas tersebut terhadap total ekspor sektor pertanian Indonesia dan juga peran penting dari komoditas kakao biji terhadap mata pencaharian utama petani kecil di pedesaan.

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji determinan dari produksi komoditas kakao biji Indonesia. Secara lebih khusus, penelitian ini mendiskusikan bagaimana faktor-faktor agronomis, karakteristik petani, dan proses rantai nilai dapat mempengaruhi produksi kakao biji di Indonesia yang dijelaskan melalui metode kualitatif. Selain itu, penilitian ini juga menguji bagaimana pengaruh dari harga produsen dan perubahannya, harga dunia, curah hujan, dan inflasi terhadap produksi komoditas kakao biji Indonesia dengan menggunakan model random effect.

Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa faktor-faktor agronomis dapat mempengaruhi produksi kakao biji melalui tingkat curah hujan dan tingkat kelembaban yang memngaruhi pohon kakao. Selanjutnya, karakteristik petani, seperti motif untuk memenuhi kebutuhan sehar-hari, dapat memengaruhi keputusan petani dalam membudidayakan komoditas kakao biji. Proses rantai nilai menjelaskan bahwa harga produsen secara langsung mempengaruhi kapasitas produksi domestic, sedangkan harga internasional secara tidak langsung mempengaruhi kapasitas produksi. Sementara itu, model random effect menunjukkan bahwa harga produsen, perubahan harga produsen, harga dunia, dan inflasi secara signifikan memberikan pengaruh terhadap produksi kakao biji domestik.

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ABSTRACT
Currently, Indonesia has become one of the major producers of cocoa bean in the world. Then, it makes cocoa bean as one of the important commodities for Indonesia. Since the crop has become one of the important commodities for Indonesian economy, the government needs to maintain the stability of cocoa bean production. The important role of cocoa bean can be shown by the share of cocoa bean export on Indonesian agricultural export and the livelihood of smallholder farmers.

This research aims to examine the determinants of Indonesian cocoa bean production. Particularly, this research discusses how the agronomics factors, farmers? characteristics, and value chain process can affect the cocoa bean production in Indonesia. Qualitative analysis is used to discuss these factors. Furthermore, this research also examines the affect of producer price, change in producer price, world price, rainfall, and inflation on the cocoa bean production. Random effect model is used to examine the affect of those variables.

The result reveals that agronomics factors can affect the production through the impact of rainfall and humidity on cocoa tree. The farmers? characteristics, i.e. the motive to survive can affect the decision of farmers in cultivating cocoa bean. The value chain process can explain that producer price of cocoa bean can directly affect the domestic production, whereas the world price indirectly affects the domestic production. Meanwhile, the random effect model reveals that change in price of cocoa bean, producer price of cocoa bean, the world price, and inflation significantly affect the domestic production.;Currently, Indonesia has become one of the major producers of cocoa bean in the world. Then, it makes cocoa bean as one of the important commodities for Indonesia. Since the crop has become one of the important commodities for Indonesian economy, the government needs to maintain the stability of cocoa bean production. The important role of cocoa bean can be shown by the share of cocoa bean export on Indonesian agricultural export and the livelihood of smallholder farmers. This research aims to examine the determinants of Indonesian cocoa bean production. Particularly, this research discusses how the agronomics factors, farmers’ characteristics, and value chain process can affect the cocoa bean production in Indonesia. Qualitative analysis is used to discuss these factors. Furthermore, this research also examines the affect of producer price, change in producer price, world price, rainfall, and inflation on the cocoa bean production. Random effect model is used to examine the affect of those variables. The result reveals that agronomics factors can affect the production through the impact of rainfall and humidity on cocoa tree. The farmers’ characteristics, i.e. the motive to survive can affect the decision of farmers in cultivating cocoa bean. The value chain process can explain that producer price of cocoa bean can directly affect the domestic production, whereas the world price indirectly affects the domestic production. Meanwhile, the random effect model reveals that change in price of cocoa bean, producer price of cocoa bean, the world price, and inflation significantly affect the domestic production., Currently, Indonesia has become one of the major producers of cocoa bean in the world. Then, it makes cocoa bean as one of the important commodities for Indonesia. Since the crop has become one of the important commodities for Indonesian economy, the government needs to maintain the stability of cocoa bean production. The important role of cocoa bean can be shown by the share of cocoa bean export on Indonesian agricultural export and the livelihood of smallholder farmers. This research aims to examine the determinants of Indonesian cocoa bean production. Particularly, this research discusses how the agronomics factors, farmers’ characteristics, and value chain process can affect the cocoa bean production in Indonesia. Qualitative analysis is used to discuss these factors. Furthermore, this research also examines the affect of producer price, change in producer price, world price, rainfall, and inflation on the cocoa bean production. Random effect model is used to examine the affect of those variables. The result reveals that agronomics factors can affect the production through the impact of rainfall and humidity on cocoa tree. The farmers’ characteristics, i.e. the motive to survive can affect the decision of farmers in cultivating cocoa bean. The value chain process can explain that producer price of cocoa bean can directly affect the domestic production, whereas the world price indirectly affects the domestic production. Meanwhile, the random effect model reveals that change in price of cocoa bean, producer price of cocoa bean, the world price, and inflation significantly affect the domestic production.]