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Abstrak :
Indonesia Fuels demand increase every year; so that fuels subsidy increases progressively and APBN (National Budget) will become worst. With Parliament (DPR) approvement, government shall cut down the fuels subsidy step by step, and to determine type and total volume of fuels subsidized on year 2006, the type of fuels subsidized are Premium (regular Gasoline), Diesel Oil and Kerosene with total consumption equal to 41,58 million kL that was mean around 30% decreasing of subsidized fuel alocation. Analysis level of confidence in amount of Diesel Oil demand for transportation and Kerosene demand for household and small industries base on quota compared with the result of formulation from historical consumption conducted by Monte-Carlo simulation. The result of simulation indicate that in 20012 Diesel oil demand for transportation base on quota having confidence level of 78,8%, and base on formulation having confidence level of 33,l%. While the result of simulation for Kerosene demand for household and small industries base on quota having confidence level of 62.6%, and base on formulation having confidence level of 80. 4%.

Abstrak :
Natural gas industries in indonesia is a good industries to be invested. It is due to Indonesia has many natural gas resources, the raising of BBM subsidies, and good promising market. From market analysis, the capacity for this industry is about l53,257.238 MMSCF/year, and this industry will be operated for about 19 years. This plant will be built in Kecamatan Batui, Kabupaten Banggai, Central Sulawesi. The natural gas will be processed in two main process which are sweetening process and fraksionasi process. The operation mode of this plant is using continuous mode. Good process performance of this plant is shown by energy efficiency of 82.61% (sweetening process) and 98.57% (Faltsionasi process). Economic analysis calculated that the total investment to build this plant is about USS l60 million with manufacturing cost of USS 57. 7 million. NPV for this project calculated at USS 94 million, 25% JRR, with payback periods in 6 years. The most sensitive for this project is production capacity , which is no less than 76,l36.884 MMSCF/year or 49. 68% from basic production capacity of this plant. Risk analysis of this plant using Monte Carlo 's method considering that the value of IRR is more than the disconto level (11%), it can be summarized that the certainly of feasibility level of this plant for city gas distribution using pipeline method is 82.l5%, whilst using CNG is 79. 78%. Based on economic analysis mentioned above, this plant is considered being feasible for a commercial commencement.