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Abstrak :
Adopsi dan difusi inovasi sebagai fenornena komunikasi telah menarik banyak peneliti untuk mendalaminya. Studi-studi adopsi kebanyakan terfokus pada tahapan decision. Penelitian ini menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pilihan petani dalam tahapan konfirmasi, dimana ia mungkin masuk ke dalam salah satu dari empat kategori berikut (1) continued adoption, (2) later adoption, (3) disadoption, atau (4) continued rejection dengan membangun model multinomial logit, dengan mengambil kasus adopsi kapas Bt di Sulawesi Selatan. Seperti di ketahui penanaman kapas Bt telah berlangsung sekurangnya selama setahun ini di Sulawesi Selatan, yang berarti telah terjadi adopsi terhadapnya, dan bahkan telah sampai pada tahapan konfirmasi dalam sekuen adopsi ala Rogers (1995). Studi menggunakan metode triangulasi; gabungan antara metode kualitatif, sehingga diharapkan diperoleh gambaran utuh adopsi dan difusi kapas Bt tersebut. Mengingat petani kapas Bt mencapai 6.638 orang, pengambilan sampel menggunakan metode stratified random sampling. Strata dibuat pada level kecamatan dengan membuat tipologi kecamatan berdasarkan luasan lahan garapan dan produktifitas kapas. Berdasarkan tipologi ini dipilih secara purposif lima kecamatan di lima kabupaten (Bantaeng, Bone, Bulukumba, Takalar, dan Wajo). Sementara itu, responden petani dipilih secara acak di tingkat kecamatan sejumlah 298 orang, terdiri dari 263 sampel petani kapas Bollgard dan sebagai kontrol dipilih 35 responden petani kapas non-Bollgard. Sementara untuk studi kualitatif, dilakukan wawancara terhadap 35 responden, 26 informan, dan dilakukan tujuh kali diskusi kelompok fokus (Focus Group Discussion). Hasil analisis multinomial logit menunjukkan; keterlambatan adopsi kapas Bt dipengaruhi terutama oleh faktor-faktor luasan lahan yang digunakan untuk usahatani kapas Bt, biaya total yang dibutuhkan untuk melaksanakan usaha tani kapas Bt, proporsi biaya tenaga kerja terhadap biaya total, dan kepuasan petani terhadap pelatihan produksi kapas Bt. Dalam kaitannya dengan faktor kelembagaan, ditenggarai bahwa kelompok tani sebagai suatu entitas berperan penting dan efektif sifatnya dalam menyusun perencanaan produksi dan sebagai representasi para petani menghadapi perusahaan. Sementara itu, petani yang terus menolak mengadopsi dipengaruhi oleh proporsi biaya tenaga kerja terhadap biaya total, total pendapatan bersih dari usahatani selain kapas, dan pengalaman petani dalam berusaha tani kapas. Sedangkan keputusan berhenti mengadopsi proporsi biaya tenaga kerja terhadap biaya total, luasan lahan yang digunakan untuk menanam kapas, dan kepuasan petani terhadap pelatihan produksi kapas Bt. Adopsi kapas Bt berlangsung melalui pengikutsertaan tokoh-tokoh petani agar menjadi pendorong petani-petani yang berada dalam lingkaran pengaruhnya untuk mencoba menanam kapas Bt menimbulkan dinamika komunitas tersendiri. Oleh karena tokoh-tokoh petani tersebut pada gilirannya ada yang bertindak sebagai distributor dan sebagai pengurus inti kelompok-kelompok petani, dimana petani pada dasarnya menyandarkan keputusannya kepada pemuka masyarakatnya. Pendekatan komunikasi PT Monagro yang cenderung mengandalkan pemuka masyarakat, perlu ditunjang dengan metode komunikasi yang mampu menjangkau petani (dan dapat diakses petani) dalam waktu cepat guna menangkal informasi yang unfavorable terhadap pengembangan kapas Bt. Sementara itu, untuk meningkatkan adopsi diperlukan penyuluhan dengan materi yang mengkontraskan perbedaan teknis dan biologis antara kapas Bt dengan kapas non-Bt. Faktor pendukung utama penkembangan budidaya kapas Bt Sulawesi Selatan adalah prosesnya dilakukan dalam kerangka infrastruktur kelembagaan agribisnis kapas dari proses pra-produksi hingga pemasaran yang pernah dikenal sebelumnya-artinya kapas Bt masuk ke Sulawesi dengan kerangka kelembagaan yang telah mapan. Artinya, hasil penelitian ini hanya dapat digeneralisir pada kondisi kelembagaan yang mapan saja, sementara untuk kelembagaan yang lain, diperlukan studi yang lebih mendalam. ......Adoption of Bt Cotton: An Application of Multinomial Logit ModelAdoption and diffusion of innovation as communication phenomena has been studied since long time ago. Adoption studies mostly concentrated on decision stage of adoption sequences. As such we are trying to study confirmation stage, by identified factors underlying farmers choice in confirmation stage, in which they may stay in one of four possible categories as follows: (1) continued adoption, (2) later adoption, (3) disadoption, or (4) continued rejection. To identify, we develop multinomial logit model for Bt cotton adoption in South Sulawesi. As been known, Bt cotton cultivation in this area prevail at least since a year ago, so it is can be assumed this recently adoption of Bt cotton already reaching confirmation stage from Rogers (1995) adoption stage. The study employ triangulation method; a combination of quantitative and qualitative method to capture the complete picture of Bt cotton adoption and diffusion process. Considering huge amount of respondents to interviewed (as much 6,638 farriers), we use slralii ied random sampling. At sub-district level a district typology based on cotton acreage per fanner and cotton productivity. Based on the typology, five subdistticts in five regencies have been set out purposively (Bantaeng, Bone, Bulukumba, Takalar, and Wajo); 298 respondents were interviewed using pre-prepared questionnaire, randomly. As a control we also interview 35 non-Bt cotton farmers. For qualitative method, the study interviewed 35 respondents, 26 informants, and conducting Focus Group Discussion in seven different locations. Multinomial logit model shows; late adopter was mainly affected bt cotton farm acreage, total cost of Bt cotton farming, and proportion of labour cost to total fanning cost, and revealed satisfaction to Bt cotton production training held by PT Monagro. In relation to institutional factor, farmers group as an entity plays important role and effective in nature to plan farming activity and at the same time as farmer's representation to bargain with PT Monagro. On other hand, continuous rejection mainly due to proportion of labour cost to total farming cost, total net farm income from others commodity, and farmer's experience at cotton farming. Farmer's decision to dis-adopt Bt cotton was influenced by proportion of labour cost to total farming cost, total Bt cotton acreage, and revealed satisfaction to Bt cotton production training. Bt cotton adoption run smoothly with involvement of farmers' informal leaders to attract farmers finally triggered specifics community dynamic, because the informal leader also playing important role as seed distributor to the farmers and at the same time they tend to chair the farmer group himself, in which basically farmers will follow informal leader decision not or no to adopt Bt cotton. PT Monagro external communication strategy which mainly bearing important role to informal leaders need to be back up by other communication means that capable to access farmers directly and timely to prevent farmers againts unfavorable information. At the same time, following the multinomial logit analysis result it is recommend that extension program should contrasted technical and biological differences among the competing commodity: Bt cotton and conventional non-Bt cotton. Need to mention that adoption and diffusion of Bt cotton run smoothly in South Sulawesi was because this process was prevail in community with mature cotton agribusiness institution-either farmers, local government, and other supporting institution already been build long time ago. It bear such an implication the finding might not be applicable to predict adoption of Bt cotton in another community with unmature cotton agribusiness institution, so it is need another study in diffe'rent community to test against hypotheses tested here.

Abstrak :
The research examines the factors which influence the decisions of migrant workers to seek employment aboard. Three hundred households were chosen as samples for the study in Cirebon District, West Java. This research uses an econometric analysis with a multinomial logit model. The research concluded that: first, economic reasons, namely higher wage expectations, remain the primary reason for migration. Second, endowment, as income and family wealth, acts as an economic safety net which is a supporting factor of migration. Third, well-educated women under the age of 25 have a high probability of seeking employment aboard.

Abstrak :
The choice among modes of intercity transport depends on conditions of not only intercity transport modes but also intracity transport in both the departure city and the arrival city. Intracity transport conditions might be advantageous for one intercity mode and disadvantageous for others. Intercity and intracity transport conditions are complex and need to be approached systemically. This study proposes an approach based on the passengers? preferences. The logit model was adapted to evaluate the transport modes? choices in competition. This model is called the ?Adapted Mixed Multinomial Logit Model? (AMML). It was applied on the Jakarta-Bandung corridor in both directions. It contributes to a complete approach for intercity transport mode choice by considering the influence of the intracity transport conditions in both the departure and arrival cities. The results proved that the choice of intercity transport mode depends not only on its own quality of service but also, importantly, on that of the intracity transport systems.

Abstrak :
The choice among modes of intercity transport depends on conditions of not only intercity transport modes but also intracity transport in both the departure city and the arrival city. Intracity transport conditions might be advantageous for one intercity mode and disadvantageous for others. Intercity and intracity transport conditions are complex and need to be approached systemically. This study proposes an approach based on the passengers’ preferences. The logit model was adapted to evaluate the transport modes’ choices in competition. This model is called the “Adapted Mixed Multinomial Logit Model” (AMML). It was applied on the Jakarta-Bandung corridor in both directions. It contributes to a complete approach for intercity transport mode choice by considering the influence of the intracity transport conditions in both the departure and arrival cities. The results proved that the choice of intercity transport mode depends not only on its own quality of service but also, importantly, on that of the intracity transport systems.

Abstrak :
Penelitian ini dimaksudkan untuk memperkirakan faktor yang dapat mempengaruhi preferensi perpindahan penumpang dalam melakukan perjalanan menggunakan High Speed Train Jakarta Bandung, serta membentuk perangkat analisis permintaan berbentuk model pemilihan moda. Analisis dilakukan dengan menggunakan model logit multinomial yang dibentuk dengan hasil survey stated preference terhadap penumpang mobil pribadi dan angkutan shuttle/travel yang melalui rute Jakarta Bandung. Data yang diambil dalam penelitian ini adalah sebanyak 100 sampel. Hasil permodelan menggunakan metode Multinomial Logit menunjukkan bahwa pada saat tarif/biaya (selisih tarif = 0) mobil pribadi memiliki probabilitas berpindah ke kereta cepat sebesar 0,38 (38%). Sedangkan untuk angkutan shuttle/travel memiliki probabilitas berpindah ke kereta cepat adalah sebesar 0,23 (23%) serta probabilitas memilih kereta cepat sebesar 0,39 (39%). ......This study aims to estimate the factors that can affect the passengers preference in travelling using the High Speed Train Jakarta Bandung, and form of a choice mode selection model. The analysis was carried out using a multinomial logit model which was formed with the results of a stated preference survey of private car passengers and shuttle/travel passengers through the Jakarta Bandung route. The data taken in this study were 100 samples. The modelling results using the Multinomial Logit method indicate when the tariff/fee (fee defference = 0) of private cars has the probability of moving to high speed train by 0,38 (38%). Whereas for shuttle/travel has probability of moving to high speed train is 0,23 (23%) and theprobability choosing the high speed train is 0,39 (39%).

Abstrak :
Pemerintah Indonesia melaksanakan beragam kebijakan dalam rangka menurunkan laju pertumbuhan infeksi Covid-19, termasuk menerapkan Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar (PSBB). Penerapan PSBB berhasil menahan laju penyebaran virus corona, namun PSBB juga berpotensi menimbulkan biaya ekonomi. Mengingat terdapat beberapa kebijakan yang diterapkan Pemerintah selama pandemic covid-19 di tahun 2020, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengestimasi dampak partial lockdown akibat Covid-19 terhadap konsumsi rumah tangga, dinamisasi kemiskinan jangka pendek, dan mobilitas ekonomi rumah tangga. Studi ini berfokus pada pelaksanaan PSBB di lima wilayah (Kabupaten Bogor, Kabupaten Bekasi, Kota Bogor, Kota Bekasi, dan DKI Jakarta). Untuk mendapatkan hasil estimasi yang memiliki hubungan kausal, penelitian ini menggunakan Synthetic Control Method untuk membentuk hypothetical counterfactual untuk daerah yang menerapkan PSBB pada tahap pre estimasi. Selanjutnya, berdasarkan hasil estimasi difference-in-difference, penelitian ini menemukan bahwa penerapan PSBB secara signifikan dan negative memengaruhi konsumsi rumah tangga di Kabupaten Bogor, Kabupaten Bekasi, dan Kota Bekasi tetapi juga secara significant meningkatkan konsumsi rumah tangga di DKI Jakarta. Sementara itu, berdasarkan hasil estimasi ordered logit models, penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa PSBB hanya signifikan memengaruhi dinamisasi kemiskinan jangka pendek di Kabupaten Bogor. Selanjutnya, berdasarkan hasil estimasi multinomial logit, penelitian ini juga menemukan bahwa PSBB secara signifikan memengaruhi mobilitas ekonomi rumah tangga di kabupaten sampel, namun tidak signifikan memengaruhi mobilitas ekonomi rumah tangga di kota sampel dalam jangka pendek. ......The Indonesian government has imposed various policy responses to slow down the growth rate of Covid-19 infections, including implementing a partial lockdown known as large-scale social restrictions (Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar - PSBB) policy. The enactment of the PSSB policy may successfully suppress the spread of coronavirus, but it also may have an economical cost. Given that many policy interventions during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, this study aims to estimate the impact of Indonesia’s partial lockdown due to the Covid-19 pandemic on household consumption, short-term poverty dynamics, and intragenerational economic mobility. This study focuses on the implementation of PSBB policy in five regions (Bogor Regency, Bekasi Regency, Bogor City, Bekasi City, and DKI Jakarta). In order to have a causal relationship, this study performs Synthetic Control Method to construct hypothetical counterfactual regions for regions that implement PSBB policy in the pre-estimation stage. Then, based on difference-in-difference estimations, this study found that the implementation of PSBB affects household consumption in Bogor Regency, Bekasi Regency, and Bekasi City negatively but significantly increases household consumption in DKI Jakarta. Meanwhile, using ordered logit estimations, this study shows that the implementation of PSBB only significantly affects short-term poverty dynamics in Bogor Regency. Further, based on multinomial logit estimations, this study found that the implementation of PSBB adversely affects household economic mobility in rural districts but does not significantly affect household economic mobility in urban districts in the short-run.

Abstrak :
Tahap pemilihan moda merupakan salah satu tahap dalam perencanaan transportasi, yang bertujuan untuk mengetahui proporsi orang yang menggunakan moda-moda transportasi yang tersedia. Masalah pemilihan moda ini dapat dimodelkan menjadi model pemilihan diskrit, yaitu suatu prosedur untuk memilih suatu moda terhadap sejumlah pilihan moda yang ada. Setiap pilihan moda memiliki atribut yang menjadi ciri dari pilihan moda tersebut, dimana setiap atribut mempunyai utilitas yang akan dipilih oleh pelaku perjalanan. Selanjutnya, moda transportasi yang memiliki nilai utilitas maksimum yang dipilih oleh pelaku perjalanan. Salah satu atribut yang digunakan dalam model pemilihan moda transportasi adalah waktu perjalanan. Model pemilihan moda yang menggunakan atribut waktu perjalanan diantaranya adalah Becker dan DeSerpa. Pada skripsi dibahas perbedaan antara konsep yang dikembangkan oleh Becker dan DeSerpa yang menerapkan fungsi utilitas untuk pemilihan moda dengan optimasi Lagrange, serta menganalisa pengaruh dari perubahan waktu perjalanan dengan kedua konsep tersebut. Perubahan waktu perjalanan dapat dijadikan sebagai suatu acuan untuk menentukan probabilitas setiap individu yang berperan sebagai pelaku perjalanan dalam memilih moda dengan menggunakan model multinomial logit. ...... Mode choice phase is one of the phases in transportation planning, which aims to determine the proportion of people who use some available modes of transportation. This mode selection problem can be modeled into a discrete choice model, which defined as a procedure to choose a preferred mode than the other transportation modes. Each options has some attributes which become the characteristics of mode choice phase, where every attributes has utility or satisfaction values that will be selected by travelers. Furthermore, a mode that has maximum utility value will be selected. One of the attributes which is used in the mode choice phase is travel time. Mode choice models which using travel time as its attribute among are Becker and DeSerpa. In this skripsi, it will explained about the differences between the concepts developed by Becker and DeSerpa?s utility function which apply to mode selection with Lagrange optimization, and analyze the sensitivity of travel time with these two concepts. The sensitivity of travel time can be used as a reference in determining the probability of each travelers in the mode choice phase by using multinomial logit model.