Hasil Pencarian  ::  Simpan CSV :: Kembali

Abstrak :
Economic crisis which happened several years ago has caused many impacts to Indonesia. One of these impacts is a huge amount of government debt. Particularly, the government debt whether from domestic or foreign is one of the instruments to finance government expenditure which can not be fulfilled entirely by revenues from taxes. However, using the government debt to fund the government expenditure has consequences for the government to pay-back not only for the interest rate but also for the principal of debt which have maturity-date in the future. The purpose of this study is to analyze how far the development of the government debt dynamic from both domestic and _foreign is correlated to _fiscal sustainability. This study uses a case of Indonesia in period 1980-2005 which is divided into three periods: before crisis (1980-1997), crisis (1998-2000), and after crisis (2001-2005). In this study, we use Branson (1992) to analyze the government debt dynamic. In addition, we also use different approaches to have several comparisons in our analysis by Hamilton and Flavia ( 1936), Wilcox (1989), and Trehan and Walsh (1991). Besides that, we also conduct projection of the ratio of government revenue to GDP which is needed to support in decreasing of the ratio of government debt to GDP in tire middle-term until 2010. In summary, this study shows that after the crisis, the dynamic movement of the government debt is decreasing continuously. Furthermore, the government debt and the primary deficit still stand on the sustainable path, or the right track. Equally important, in the middle-term, the ratio of government revenue to GDP is still needed to maintain in decreasing of the government debt front year to year. Generally, this study shows that fiscal condition in indonesia after the crisis reflects sustainable and suitable to the assumption of Non-Ponzi Game.

Abstrak :
Kesinambungan fiskal telah menjadi perhatian di seluruh dunia. Banyak negara menderita karena hutang publik meroket. Dalam kasus Indonesia, Kuncoro (2011) telah meneliti keberlanjutan APBN pusat dan menyimpulkan bahwa APBN tidak sustainable. Terkait dengan itu, kami menggunakan (1) analisis dinamika utang, (2) analisis keberlanjutan fiskal dan (3) analisis dengan memamsukkan faktor ketidakpastian. Akhirnya, kita menyimpulkan pertama, faktor penyebab peningkatan utang pemerintah adalah depresiasi rupiah dan program bailout. Kedua, kami berpendapat bahwa utang pemerintah sustainable. Ketiga, risiko nilai tukar tidak akan menjadi risiko yang berpengaruh di masa depan. ......Fiscal sustainability has become a concern around the world. Many countries suffer because public debt is rocketing. In Indonesia's case, Kuncoro (2011) has examined central budget sustainability and concluded that the state budget was very vulnerable. Associated with that, we used (1) debt dynamics analysis, (2) sustainability analysis based on life time budget constraint, and (3) analysis by introducing uncertainty. Finally, we justify that the factors causing an increase of government debt were rupiah depreciation and bailout program. Second, we argue that government debt is unsustainable. Third, exchange rate risk will not be an influential risk in the future.